MTPI TOTAL / BTC | JeffreyTimmermansMedium-Term Probability Indicator (MTPI)
The "Medium-Term Probability Indicator (MTPI)" is a multi-factor model designed to evaluate the medium-term state of a market. By aggregating signals from 20 underlying inputs, it generates a composite score that classifies the market as Bullish, Bearish, or Neutral. This helps traders understand the prevailing market regime and adapt strategies accordingly.
Key Features
Multi-Input Scoring: Combines up to 20 individual inputs (indicators, conditions, or models) into a single probability-based score.
Composite Market State: Translates raw input signals into three states: Bullish, Bearish, or Neutral.
Dynamic Background Coloring: Uses color-coded background shading to visually separate bullish, bearish, and neutral phases.
MTPI Score: Calculates a final numeric score (ranging from -1 to +1) to quantify the market’s directional bias.
Dashboard Display: Shows all input signals, their individual states, and the aggregated MTPI score at a glance.
Medium-Term Focus: Helps identify prevailing conditions that last from several weeks to several months.
Inputs & Settings
MTPI Settings:
Input Signals (1 to 20): Default: Predefined conditions. Each input evaluates the market from a unique perspective (trend, momentum, volatility, etc.).
Composite Score Calculation: Default weighting is equal across all inputs.
Color Settings:
Bullish: Bright green background
Neutral: Gray/orange background
Bearish: Bright red background
These colors can be customized as desired.
Calculation Process
Signal Aggregation:
Each input generates a state:
1 to 0.1 = Bullish
0.1 to -0.1 = Neutral
-0.1 to -1 = Bearish
Scoring:
The MTPI aggregates these values and calculates an average score.
Classification:
Bullish: Score > 0
Bearish: Score < 0
Neutral: Score ≈ 0
Visualization:
Background Coloring: Highlights the dominant phase on the chart.
Dashboard: Displays individual input states, the total MTPI score, and the resulting classification.
How to Use the MTPI
Identifying Market Regimes:
Bullish: Majority of inputs align positively. Favor long positions or trend-following strategies.
Bearish: Majority of inputs align negatively. Favor short positions or defensive strategies.
Neutral: Mixed signals. Caution or range-bound strategies may be preferable.
Transition Detection:
Changes in background color or the MTPI dashboard (score flipping from positive to negative, or vice versa) indicate potential regime shifts.
Dynamic Dashboard:
Score: Displays the net sum of all input signals (normalized).
State: Provides the classification (Bullish, Bearish, Neutral).
Trend: Visual cues for each input showing the current contribution to the MTPI.
Conclusion
The Medium-Term Probability Indicator (MTPI) consolidates multiple signals into a single, intuitive visualization that helps traders quickly assess the medium-term market environment. Its combination of a multi-input dashboard, composite scoring, and background coloring makes it a powerful decision-support tool.
This script is developed by Jeffrey Timmermans and is designed to complement other analysis methods.
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