Alpha-Numerologia by Alien CrewAlpha-Numerologia is our latest generation of market analytical tools, built completely from the ground up using a new cutting-edge mathematical formula, designed by the Alien Crew team.
The purpose of this tool, is to tap into the mathematics behind the market prices themselves, in order to extrapolate areas where the price is likely to find support or resistance. This indicator does not use Fibonacci or Pivot Points in any way whatsoever. It does however rhyme with them every now and then, as is the systematic nature of markets. The key strength of this indicator is its ability to adapt to ever-evolving market conditions, providing users with a real-time, clear visualization of essential price zones.
There are several aspects to the process that goes on in this algorithm. Firstly, it gathers range data from multiple lookback periods of time to understand the underlying asset volatility and reference points for calculation. Following that, it identifies the numerical structure of all the ranges, and finds their common denominators, which are essentially subsets. These subsets are then scaled in real-time, reacting to the change in volatility. A scaling mechanism occurs when the volatility either increases or decreases, causing the algorithm to recalculate the levels using the identified subsets. Since each subset has the same character as the whole, it is by definition a fractal. From a mathematical standpoint, such subsets have no limits on scale. They can be infinitesimal, or infinitely large.
Such a fractal nature provides the benefit of this algorithm being able to adjust to virtually any asset and any chart timeframe. Furthermore, through the monitoring of several temporal periods it is able to correlate alignments of the subsets, which is denominated as a percentage on the chart. Such confluences give more importance to the detected level.
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Remember, the world of trading comes with significant risks and unpredictability. While the Alpha-Numerologia Indicator is a highly sophisticated tool, it should be used in combination with other analytical techniques and a sound risk management strategy. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions. Due to the extended research and work placed into it, the inner workings behind Alpha-Numerologia are proprietary, and shall not be discussed or disclosed in any way by Alien Crew. The source code is not for sale either.
Forecasting
The Golden Candlestick PatternThe Golden pattern is a three-candlestick configuration based on a variation of the golden ratio (2.618) from the Fibonacci sequence.
The bullish Golden pattern is composed of a normal bullish candlestick with any type of body, followed by a bigger bullish candlestick with a close price that is at least 2.618 times the size of the first candlestick (high to low). Finally, there must be an important condition that is, a third candlestick that comes back to test the open of the second candlestick from where the entry is given.
The bearish Golden pattern is composed of a normal bearish candlestick with any type of body, followed by a bigger bearish candlestick with a close price that is at least 2.618 times the size of the first candlestick (high to low). Finally, there must be an important condition that is, a third candlestick that comes back to test the open of the second candlestick from where the entry is given.
Demand & Supply Zone Scoring: Rally Base & Drop ConceptDemand & Supply Zone Scoring Indicator
The Demand & Supply Zone Scoring indicator is designed to calculate the Trade Strength Score based on the concepts of demand and supply zones, specifically RBR (Rally Base Rally), RBD (Rally Base Drop), DBD (Drop Base Drop), and DBR (Drop Base Rally).
The Demand & Supply Zone Scoring indicator is specifically designed to facilitate a top-down approach with multiple timeframe analysis. It considers the higher timeframe (HTF) for curve analysis, intermediate timeframes (ITF) for trend analysis, and lower timeframes (LTF) for zone-specific analysis.
The indicator provides a table displayed on the chart, offering valuable information for analysis. Let's go through each row of the table:
1. Location:
This row represents the analysis of the curve on the higher time frame (HTF) to identify key levels. It determines whether the price is in a retail area (high on the curve) or a wholesale area (low on the curve). Trading within the wholesale area is considered a strong sign.
2. Trend:
This row focuses on the intermediate time frame (ITF) trend. It indicates whether the trend is upward or downward. If the ITF trend is up and you intend to buy, it suggests a strong point.
3. Achievement:
This row analyzes the achievement of the zone on the lower time frame (LTF). It considers whether the leg-out candle or follow-through candles of the zone have broken any opposite side zone or pivot level. A breakout in the opposite direction is seen as an excellent point.
4. Strength:
This row assesses the strength of the zone on the lower time frame (LTF) where the trade is planned. It looks at the strength of the leg-out candle, such as whether it's a gap candle, an exciting candle, or a candle with follow-through. A strong leg-out candle indicates an excellent point.
5. Time:
This row evaluates the time spent by base candles inside the zone on the lower time frame (LTF). It considers the number of base candles and the duration spent in the zone. Typically, 1 to 3 base candles are seen as strong, while more than 6 base candles receive 0 points.
6. Reward-to-Risk Ratio (RR):
This row focuses on the Risk-to-Reward (RR) ratio of the zone on the lower time frame (LTF) where the trade is planned. It compares the potential reward to the risk. A higher RR ratio, such as 1:3 or greater, is considered excellent.
7. Freshness:
This row analyzes the freshness of the zone on the lower time frame (LTF). It indicates whether the zone is new or has been tested multiple times. A fresh zone or one that has been tested only once is preferable.
Furthermore, it's important to mention that you have the flexibility to customize the text for each parameter according to your specific requirements. The table is designed to be fully customizable, allowing you to adapt the wording to your preferences and trading strategy.
This customization feature ensures that the indicator aligns with your personal trading approach and makes it easier for you to interpret and analyze the information provided in the table.
Additionally, please note that only the total score is displayed in the table on the chart by default. This is to avoid any visibility issues caused by displaying all the parameters. However, if you wish to see all the parameters in the table on the chart, you can easily enable them through the settings.
By enabling the parameters, you will have a comprehensive view of each factor's contribution to the Trade Strength Score directly on the chart.
By utilizing this indicator, calculating the Trade Strength Score becomes easier, providing a comprehensive analysis of various factors that influence trading decisions.
This indicator is developed by Afnan Tajuddin to assist fellow traders in conducting a top-down approach in an effective and efficient manner.
For more educational articles and trade setup ideas, feel free to follow me on TradingView and join me on the journey towards financial freedom through trading.
Inverted ProjectionThe "Inverted Projection" indicator calculates the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and draws lines representing an inverted projection. The indicator swaps the highs and lows of the projection to provide a unique perspective on price movement.
This indicator is a simple study that should not be taken seriously as a tool for predicting future price movements; it is purely intended for exploratory purposes.
Pro Trading Art - Head And ShouldersHow the Script Works:
1. The script identifies potential Head and Shoulders patterns by searching for specific pivot highs and pivot lows in the price data.
2. It checks for the presence of a left shoulder, head, and right shoulder based on the conditions defined in the script.
3. If a valid Head and Shoulders pattern is found, the script plots lines and labels on the chart to visualize the pattern.
4. The script also identifies Inverted Head and Shoulders patterns using similar logic but with different conditions.
5. It plots lines and labels for the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern.
6. The script generates short and long conditions based on the patterns. Short conditions trigger when the close price crosses below the neck level of a Head and Shoulders pattern, while long conditions trigger when the close price crosses above the neck level of an Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern.
7. It plots sell and buy signal shapes on the chart when the short and long conditions are met, respectively.
8. The script can also trigger alerts to notify the user when a valid Head and Shoulders or Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is detected.
9. The script provides visual cues on the chart to help users identify potential trading opportunities.
10. The logic and parameters of the script can be modified by the user to customize the behavior and adapt it to different trading strategies.
How Users Can Make Profit Using This Script:
1. Identify potential short-selling opportunities: When a valid Head and Shoulders pattern is detected and a short condition is met, it indicates a potential trend reversal. Traders can consider opening short positions to profit from a downward price movement.
2. Identify potential long-buying opportunities: When a valid Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is detected and a long condition is met, it suggests a potential trend reversal. Traders can consider opening long positions to profit from an upward price movement.
3. Combine with additional analysis: Users can utilize this script as a tool in their overall trading strategy. They can combine the signals generated by the script with other technical indicators, fundamental analysis, or market sentiment to make more informed trading decisions.
4. Define appropriate entry and exit points: Traders can use the lines and labels plotted by the script to determine entry and exit points for their trades. For example, they may choose to enter a short position after the price crosses below the neck level and exit when the price reaches a predetermined target or when the pattern is invalidated.
5. Set risk management measures: It is important for users to implement proper risk management strategies when trading based on the script's signals. They should define stop-loss orders to limit potential losses if the trade goes against them and consider setting profit targets to secure profits when the trade moves in their favor.
Ultimate Trend LineThe "Ultimate Trend Line" indicator, designed for overlay on financial charts, calculates and plots a global trend line. It works by first allowing users to input several parameters such as different lengths for up to 21 groups, a multiplier that defines the deviation from the linear regression line for calculating the upper and lower bands, and a color for the fill.
Using these inputs, it calculates the upper and lower bands for each length group based on a multiple of the standard deviation from the linear regression line. It then averages these bands to define the global trend line, which is plotted on the graph.
Although the code includes commented-out lines for plotting each individual upper and lower band, the indicator as it stands only displays the overall average trend line. The line's color and linewidth can be adjusted according to user preferences.
This indicator can be effectively used on both logarithmic and linear scales. This versatility allows it to be adaptable to various types of financial charts and trading styles, providing a flexible tool for users to assess and visualize trend patterns across different market conditions and time frames. It maintains its accuracy and relevance, regardless of the scale used, thus making it a comprehensive solution for trend line analysis in diverse scenarios.
It's important to note that the "Ultimate Trend Line" indicator requires a substantial amount of historical data to function properly. If insufficient historical data is available, the indicator may not display accurately or at all. This issue is particularly prevalent when using larger time units, such as weekly or monthly charts, where the available data may not stretch back far enough to satisfy the requirements of the indicator. As such, users should ensure they are operating on a time scale and data set that provides adequate historical depth for the reliable operation of this indicator.
Exponential ADR with Price TargetsThis script is designed to help you analyze price movements in the financial markets by calculating the Average Daily Range (ADR), adjusting it based on exponentiality and generating price targets based on that range.
The ADR represents the average range between the highest and lowest prices of a trading instrument during a specific period. It gives you an idea of how much the price typically moves in a day. In this script, we calculate the ADR using Simple Moving Averages (SMA) of the high and low prices over a certain length of time. You can customize this length according to your preference.
To make the ADR smoother and more responsive to recent price changes, we apply an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to the ADR values. The EMA places more weight on recent data, giving you a more up-to-date measure of the ADR. The length of the EMA is also adjustable.
Once we have the Exponential ADR, we can generate price targets based on it. Price targets are potential levels where the price may reach in the future. We calculate these targets by adding or subtracting a certain multiple of the Exponential ADR from the current closing price. The multiple is determined by a parameter called the "Target Multiplier." You can adjust this value to control the distance of the price targets from the closing price.
In addition to plotting the Exponential ADR as a histogram on the chart, we create a table that displays the price targets. The table shows three bullish (positive) targets and three bearish (negative) targets. The targets are labeled as "Bull Target" or "Bear Target" followed by a number indicating the target's order. For each target, we display the corresponding price level.
To estimate the potential price levels, we used a formula that takes into account the current closing price and a value called the Exponential Average Daily Range (Exponential ADR). The Exponential ADR represents the average range of price movement over a specific period.
To calculate the price targets, we multiplied the Exponential ADR by a user-defined value called the target multiplier. This target multiplier allows traders to control the distance of the price targets from the current price. The resulting value indicates the desired distance from the current price for each target level.
For bullish targets, we added the calculated value to the current closing price. This suggests potential upward movement in the price. On the other hand, for bearish targets, we subtracted the calculated value from the current closing price. This indicates potential downward movement in the price.
By providing multiple target levels, such as level 1, level 2, and level 3, traders can assess different scenarios and potential price outcomes. These target levels help traders identify possible price levels where they might consider taking profit or adjusting their trading positions.
It's important to note that these price targets are not guaranteed to be reached, but they serve as reference points based on historical price behavior and the Exponential ADR. Traders can use them as part of their overall trading strategy and decision-making process.
Adjust the input parameters according to your desired settings, such as the ADR length, EMA length, target multiplier, table position, and table style. The indicator will then calculate and display the Exponential ADR and price targets on the chart, helping you identify potential levels of support and resistance for your trading decisions.
PivotBoss Tool (PART 2)Hello Everyone,
This indicator is being published on TradingView to help traders solve their multiframe EOD analysis issue and at the same time get additional information of other crucial information - CandleStick Patterns, Candlestick Midpoint and ATR Trails for trailing your SL's all under one single frame.
This indicator is based on the concepts of Secrets of Pivot Boss by Mr.Frank Ochoa and strives to provide more insightful information of pivot points and other general indicators being used by traders on day-to-day basis in the simplest format possible so that traders of all kinds can relate to the same.
And, this is purely dedicated to EOD analysis.
What is the moat of this Indicator?
This particular indicator is designed to help the traders in their EOD analysis as this indicator is well equipped to provide the next session trading pivot points well in advance at the end of the current day trading session. A trader has everything required for an EOD analysis in this particular indicator.
Below is the brief information of the indicator table you see in the layout of the above chart -
#Next Session Pivots
One can plot this feature to find out the developing pivot levels for upcoming D/W/M/Q/Y alongside it's additional pivot levels such as:
- Future Camarilla Pivots (H3/H4/H5 & L3/L4/L5)
- Future Floor Pivots (R1/R2/R3 & S1/S2/S3)
- Future CPR levels (TC/PIVOT/BC)
#Developing Pivot Cloud
One can check the developing CPR in Intraday itself by enabling the pivot cloud feature which can tell you multiple information to be with the trend and it's participants.
Basically a live extension of the current trading CPR according with the progress of the trading day.
#CandleStick Mid-Point
This can plot the midpoint of each candlestick on any timeframe for better understanding of buyer/seller's absorption!
#Candlestick Pattern Scans
So one can now easily filter out the candlesticks patterns which helps in decoding the chart in a better format for entry and exits. There are 4 candlesticks patterns included -
- Wick Reversal Pattern -
This pattern basically tells the wick strength which is actually a liquidity absorption by the stronger hand and the intensity and further direction of the move depends on the position of wick candle being formed indicated by green (bull) or red (bear) signal.
- Doji Reversal Pattern -
This pattern basically is used to identify the biasness of the market participants and further identifies a pause in the ongoing trend or a pause for the trend to get further liquidity for broader strength.
- Outside Reversal Pattern -
This pattern depicts the range of the previous candle of a specific timeframe has been tested at both the extreme and probably the price will consolidate in the that visible range for a while.
- Extreme Reversal Pattern -
This pattern basically points at a setup that looks for an extreme pattern of selling pressure and then looks to fade this behavior to capture a bullish move higher (reverse for shorts) and vice versa .
#ATR Trails
This a just a supertrend indicator sourced with ATR to track a short/long term trend change and can be used for trailing SL's when they are kept tight for big positions!
#CPR Trails
This is the most interesting feature with multiple permutations & combinations and can be used to analyse intraday as well as EOD and positional trends. Moreover, THIS FEATURE CAN ALSO INDENTIFY MICRO INTRADAY TREND AS SMALL AS EACH 5M TREND!!
This indicator will be updated with time and depending on community's feedback and requirements.
Credits -
- Mr. Frank Ochoa (Concepts and ideas from the book 'Secrets of PivotBoss' )
- TradingView (Providing a platform to traders to simply their trading through 'PineScript')
Regards,
Mukkull
Matrix Momentum Expansion [IkkeOmar]The indicator consists of several features:
Candlestick chart: The indicator plots a candlestick chart based on the input parameters of the user. The candlesticks are colored blue or orange depending on whether the closing price is above or below the upper and lower bands.
Support and Resistance levels: The indicator also plots support and resistance levels based on the CCI (Commodity Channel Index) of the asset's price. These levels are dynamic and change based on the user's input parameters.
Momentum: The indicator calculates the momentum of the market based on the smoothed and standard deviation of the asset's price. It uses this momentum to calculate upper and lower bands that are plotted on the chart.
Warning signals: The indicator can also be used to identify potential warning signals. When the closing price of the asset moves above the upper band, it could indicate that the market is overbought and a potential reversal could occur. Conversely, when the closing price moves below the lower band, it could indicate that the market is oversold and a potential reversal could occur.
Contractions and expansions in the bands can provide important information to traders about potential price movements.
When the bands contract, it indicates that the market is experiencing low volatility and the price is likely to move sideways. During these periods, traders may look for other signals, such as support and resistance levels or price patterns, to determine potential entry and exit points.
On the other hand, when the bands expand, it indicates that the market is experiencing high volatility and the price is likely to move in a particular direction. Traders can use this information to identify potential trend reversals or continuation patterns. When the upper and lower bands move further apart, it indicates that the trend is becoming stronger, while when they move closer together, it indicates that the trend may be weakening.
When the price moves outside of the bands, it can also provide important information to traders. If the price moves above the upper band, it could indicate that the market is overbought and a potential reversal could occur. Conversely, if the price moves below the lower band, it could indicate that the market is oversold and a potential reversal could occur.
Very important note!
When you see contractions, please understand that it's a wonderful opportunity to pivot into position to catch a good trade because we will see an expansion after!
Bull Bear Correlation Tracker PaneThe Bull Bear Correlation Tracker is a versatile indicator designed to help traders identify the direction and strength of market trends by comparing the price action of multiple assets. It is particularly useful for those who are familiar with the carry trade principle, as it can detect when positively or negatively correlated assets move in favor or against the asset being traded. This indicator can be used for various markets, including crypto and forex, by simply adjusting the default options.
Key features of the Bull Bear Correlation Tracker include:
Multiple methods for determining trend direction: Supertrend, Pivot Point SuperTrend by LonesomeTheBlue, MACD - Zero Cross, and MACD - Grow/Shrink. These methods help traders identify the primary trend direction and potential trade opportunities.
Optional slow trend display for additional insights into market trends, allowing traders to analyze both short-term and long-term trends simultaneously.
Supports up to three symbols, enabling traders to analyze multiple assets simultaneously and better understand their correlation.
Assumed correlation settings to test traders' hypotheses about asset relationships, allowing traders to make informed decisions about potential correlations between different assets.
Customizable correlation period and smoothing settings to fine-tune the indicator's performance, providing traders with the ability to optimize the indicator based on their preferred trading style and market conditions.
Market hours filter to focus on specific trading hours, ensuring that the indicator only displays data during the hours specified.
Customizable color settings for easy visualization of trends, helping traders quickly identify the direction and strength of market trends.
Correlation histogram display to visualize asset relationships, providing traders with a clear visual representation of how different assets are correlated.
This indicator can be used to either force the correlation to be assumed positive or negative if the trader knows the correlation, or to use the actual data calculated between the traded asset and other assets if the correlation is broken often. This flexibility makes the Bull Bear Correlation Tracker suitable for trading various assets, including cryptocurrencies and forex, as well as for traders with different levels of experience.
By utilizing the Bull Bear Correlation Tracker, traders can gain valuable insights into market trends and correlations between different assets, helping them make more informed decisions and improve their trading strategies.
Note: I used back-testing for fine tuning do not base your trades on signals from the testing framework.
Price Action Color Forecast (Expo)█ Overview
The Price Action Color Forecast Indicator , is an innovative trading tool that uses the power of historical price action and candlestick patterns to predict potential future market movements. By analyzing the colors of the candlesticks and identifying specific price action events, this indicator provides traders with valuable insights into future market behavior based on past performance.
█ Calculations
The Price Action Color Forecast Indicator systematically analyzes historical price action events based on the colors of the candlesticks. Upon identifying a current price action coloring event, the indicator searches through its past data to find similar patterns that have happened before. By examining these past events and their outcomes, the indicator projects potential future price movements, offering traders valuable insights into how the market might react to the current price action event.
The indicator prioritizes the analysis of the most recent candlesticks before methodically progressing toward earlier data. This approach ensures that the generated candle forecast is based on the latest market dynamics.
The core functionality of the Price Action Color Forecast Indicator:
Analyzing historical price action events based on the colors of the candlesticks.
Identifying similar events from the past that correspond to the current price action coloring event.
Projecting potential future price action based on the outcomes of past similar events.
█ Example
In this example, we can see that the current price action pattern matches with a similar historical price action pattern that shares the same characteristics regarding candle coloring. The historical outcome is then projected into the future. This helps traders to understand how the past pattern evolved over time.
█ How to use
The indicator provides traders with valuable insights into how the market might react to the current price action event by examining similar historical patterns and projecting potential future price movements.
█ Settings
Candle series
The candle lookback length refers to the number of bars, starting from the current one, that will be examined in order to find a similar event in the past.
Forecast Candles
Number of candles to project into the future.
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Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
hidden & regular rsi divergenceThis is a divergence indicator that draws regular and hidden divergences based on the Zigzag indicator and RSI indicator. There are two degrees of Zigzag. So, in each Zigzag degree, there are two types of regular divergences and one type of hidden divergence.
👉(The logic is written in case of a bearish regular divergence. The opposite will apply for a bullish one.)
Type 1 of regular divergence (Logic 1):
Zigzag has to form a higher high. The highest RSI within both Zigzag legs must form lower highs, but the RSI values which are exactly at the Zigzag highs should not form lower highs.
Type 2 of regular divergence (Logic 2):
Zigzag has to form a higher high. The highest RSI within both Zigzag legs must form lower highs, and the RSI values which are exactly at the Zigzag highs should form lower highs.
👉(The logic is written in case of a bearish hidden divergence. The opposite will apply for a bullish one.)
Zigzag has to form a lower high. The highest RSI within both Zigzag legs must form higher highs.
👉There is also a filter that will be applied to all the divergences. It only shows the divergences whose corresponding RSI value was above/below a level (overbought level/oversold level).
Logic for regular divergences:
Bearish regular divergence's first high's (leftmost) RSI value should be greater than or equal to 70.
Bullish regular divergence's first low's (leftmost) RSI value should be less than or equal to 30.
Logic for hidden divergences:
Bearish hidden divergence's second high's (rightmost) RSI value should be greater than or equal to 70.
Bullish hidden divergence's second low's (rightmost) RSI value should be less than or equal to 30.
👉There is another feature also. This indicator colors the background based on whether the RSI is in a bullish or bearish range.
If it's within 80-60, the background will be colored green (this means that RSI is in a bullish range).
If it's within 40-20, the background will be colored red (this means that RSI is in a bearish range).
Artharjan Daily Weekly Price Trend IndicatorHi,
Artharjan Daily Weekly Price Trend Indicator is created to identify whether the current market price is with respect to previous Daily High and Low as well as Previous Weekly High and Low
If the price is above previous Day High a Green Square is plotted above the Candle, if the Price is inside the Previous Day Range then a Gray Square is Plotted above the Candle, and if the Price is below the previous day low then a Red Square is plotted above the candle.
Similarly If the price is above previous Week's High a Green Circle is plotted below the Candle, if the Price is inside the Previous Week's Range then a Gray Circle is Plotted below the Candle, and if the Price is below the previous Week's low then a Red Circle is plotted below the candle.
The idea here is to identify the trend, trend changes (Reversals) and initiate either a long or short positing purely based on price action.
For illustration purpose, If suppose you have entered the trade when you see a Green Square above and a Green Circle Below, hold on to the trade as long as the Green circle below does not turn into a Red Circle. It means the Weekly trend is Bullish and Daily trend may change more frequently, but you may hold on to your position unless and until the weekly Trend changes.
Also if may help to Book your profits in a timely manner, lets say you are in a long trade and you keep seeing Green Square at the top of the candle, the moment you see a Gray or a red Square at the top you may exit your long position. Obviously trader needs to use his brains to enter a position at right location on the chart and ride that position using this indicator.
I hope everyone would find this simple indicator very useful.
Regards
Rahul Desai
@Artharjan
Weekly and daily separatorsThis script plots vertical line between each trading week (thick, solid) and smaller lines (dotted) between each trading day. This helps kepping a better overview on the aspect of time on the higher timeframes below 1D. The distance of the lines to the top and bottom of the chart is controlled by your chart settings menu under Appearance -> Margins.
ICT SessionsThis script plots the timewindows of the ICT killzones (for forex) and trading session + makros below the chart. Individual components can be switched of to your liking
ICT MakrosThis script highlights the ICT trading makros and silverbullet timewindows with different background colors on your chart. The drawings are only visible on the timeframe 1min - 5min because they become useless above and i didnt code the logic for below 1min
Simple Moving Average Extrapolation via Monte Carlo (SMAE)In this post, I will dive into my Moving Average Extrapolator, a tool that I created to help traders predict future price movements based on past data. I will discuss the underlying logic, its limitations, and the importance of accounting for delays in the moving average. The following code, my Moving Average Extrapolator, will serve as the basis for our discussion.
The Moving Average Extrapolator uses a simple moving average (SMA) to analyze past price movements and make predictions about future price movements. It uses a Monte Carlo simulation to generate possible future price movements based on historical probabilities.
Let's start by understanding the different components of the code:
The movement_probability function calculates the probability of green and red price movements, where green movements indicate an increase in price, and red movements indicate a decrease in price.
The monte function generates an array of potential price movements using a Monte Carlo simulation.
The sim function uses the generated Monte Carlo array to simulate potential future price movements based on the probabilities calculated earlier.
The draw_lines function draws lines connecting the current price to the extrapolated future price movements.
The extrapolate function calculates the extrapolated future price movements based on the provided source, length, and accuracy.
Limitations of My Moving Average Extrapolator:
Reliance on historical data: My Moving Average Extrapolator relies heavily on historical data to make future price predictions. This can be a limitation, as past performance does not guarantee future results. Market conditions can change, making the extrapolator less reliable in predicting future price movements.
Inherent randomness: The Monte Carlo simulation introduces an element of randomness in the extrapolator's predictions. While this can help in exploring various scenarios, it may not always accurately predict future price movements.
Delay in the moving average: Moving averages inherently have a delay, as they are based on past data. This delay can cause my Moving Average Extrapolator to be less accurate in predicting immediate price movements.
Accounting for Delays in the Moving Average:
It is essential to account for the delay in the moving average to improve the accuracy of my Moving Average Extrapolator. I have taken this into account by introducing a delay variable (delay) in the draw_lines function. The delay variable calculates the delay as half the moving average's length and adjusts the time axis accordingly.
This adjustment helps in reducing the lag in the extrapolator's predictions, making it more accurate and useful for traders. However, it is important to note that even with this adjustment, my Moving Average Extrapolator is still subject to the limitations discussed earlier.
Adding Custom Lookback Period to My Moving Average Extrapolator:
To enhance the functionality and adaptability of my Moving Average Extrapolator, I have implemented an option to set a custom lookback period. The lookback period determines how far back in the historical data the Moving Average Extrapolator should start its analysis.
To achieve this, I have included a method to obtain the current bar index and then calculate the starting bar index by subtracting the desired lookback period.
Here's how to implement the custom lookback period in the Moving Average Extrapolator:
Get the current bar index: I use the bar_index built-in variable to get the current bar index, which represents the current position in the historical data.
Set the start index: To set the start index, you can subtract the desired lookback period from the current bar index. In the code, I have defined a user-input number variable, which can be set to the desired lookback period. By default, it is set to 20800. The starting index for the Moving Average Extrapolator's analysis is calculated as bar_index - number.
Here's the relevant code snippet:
number = input.int(20800, "Bar Start")
And to conditionally run the calculations:
if bar_index > number
draw_lines(avg, extrapolate(close, length, 10), length, extrapolate)
By implementing this custom lookback period, users can easily adjust the starting point of the Moving Average Extrapolator based on their preferences and trading strategies. This allows for more flexibility and adaptability to different market scenarios and ensures that the Moving Average Extrapolator remains a valuable tool for traders.
Conclusion:
My Moving Average Extrapolator can be a valuable tool for traders looking to predict future price movements based on historical data. However, it is essential to understand its limitations and the need to account for the delay in the moving average. By considering these factors, traders can make better-informed decisions and use my Moving Average Extrapolator to complement their trading strategies effectively.
BankNifty targets using VIX Version 2Original Idea Credit: Verified Market Waves
Hi,
After watching different videos online on how to get targets of BankNifty & Nifty decided to write this small script using VIX.
Nothing great but I really like the concept of getting high and low targets for the day or weekly or monthly or yearly.
What does the script do
1. We get closing of India Vix & BankNifty and Nifty
2. We get square root of Daily (365 days) | Weekly (52) | Monthly (12) & Yearly (1)
3. We divide India Vix closing with different square root to get a decimal value.
4. We use the derived value from step 3 which is used as % to calculate high and low values on BankNifty close price.
Small explanation via below screen shot to understand how to use it.
As always it comes with source code so you can modify as per your requirement.
Hope it helps 👍
SuperTrend Long Strategy +TrendFilterThis strategy aims to identify long (buy) opportunities in the market using the SuperTrend indicator. It utilizes the Average True Range (ATR) and a multiplier to determine the dynamic support levels for entering long positions. This presentation will provide an overview of the strategy's components, explain its usage, and highlight that it focuses on long trades.
Components of the Strategy:
1. ATR Period: This input determines the period used for calculating the Average True Range (ATR). A higher value may result in smoother trend lines but may lag behind recent price changes.
2. Source (src): This input determines the price source used for calculations, with "hl2" (the average of high and low prices) set as the default.
3. ATR Multiplier: This input specifies the multiplier applied to the ATR value to determine the distance of the support levels from the source.
4. Change ATR Calculation Method: This input allows toggling between two methods of ATR calculation: the default method using atr() or a simple moving average (SMA) of ATR values (sma(tr, Periods)).
5. Show Buy/Sell Signals: This input enables or disables the display of buy and sell signals on the chart.
6. Highlighter On/Off: This input controls whether highlighting of up and down trends is displayed on the chart.
7. Bar Coloring On/Off: This input determines whether the bars on the chart are colored based on the trend direction.
8. The "SuperTrend Long STRATEGY" has been enhanced by incorporating a trend filter. A moving average is used as the filter to confirm the prevailing trend before executing trades. This addition effectively reduces false signals and improves the strategy's reliability, all while maintaining its original name.
Strategy Logic:
1. The strategy calculates the upper (up) and lower (dn) trend lines based on the ATR value and the chosen multiplier.
2. The trend variable keeps track of the current trend, with 1 indicating an uptrend and -1 indicating a downtrend.
3. Buy and sell signals are generated based on the change in trend direction.
4. The strategy includes an optional highlighting feature that colors the chart background based on the current trend.
5. Additionally, the bar coloring feature colors the bars based on the direction of the last trend change.
Usage:
1. ATR Period and ATR Multiplier can be adjusted based on the desired sensitivity and risk tolerance.
2. Buy and sell signals can be displayed using the Show Buy/Sell Signals input, providing clear indications of entry and exit points.
3. The Highlighter On/Off input allows users to visually identify the prevailing trend by coloring the chart background.
4. The Bar Coloring On/Off input offers a quick visual reference for the most recent trend change.
Long Strategy:
The SuperTrend Long Strategy is specifically designed to identify long (buy) opportunities. It generates buy signals when the current trend changes from a downtrend to an uptrend, indicating a potential entry point for long positions. The strategy aims to capture upward price movements and maximize profits during bullish market conditions.
The SuperTrend Long Strategy provides traders with a systematic approach to identifying long trade opportunities. By leveraging the SuperTrend indicator and dynamic support levels, this strategy aims to generate buy signals in uptrending markets. Traders can customize the inputs and utilize the visual features to adapt the strategy to their specific trading preferences.
The modification adds a trend filter to the "SuperTrend Long STRATEGY" to improve its effectiveness. The trend filter uses a moving average to confirm the prevailing trend before taking trades. This addition helps filter out false signals and enhances the strategy's reliability without changing its name.
Crypto Coin Strength by News Crypto
This indicator calculates the strength score of a cryptocurrency and categorizes it into four categories - Very Weak, Weak, Strong, and Very Strong. The strength score is determined by calculating the RSI of the cryptocurrency's price, multiplied by the trend direction based on the fast and slow moving averages.
Long description: This indicator is designed to help cryptocurrency traders determine the strength of a particular cryptocurrency. It calculates a strength score based on the RSI of the cryptocurrency's price, multiplied by the trend direction based on the fast and slow moving averages. The strength score is then categorized into four categories - Very Weak, Weak, Strong, and Very Strong. Traders can use this indicator to make informed decisions about when to enter or exit trades based on the strength of the cryptocurrency.
Inputs:
Fast MA Period: The period used for the fast moving average (default 10).
Slow MA Period: The period used for the slow moving average (default 30).
Strength Threshold: The threshold for the strength score to be considered strong (default 50.0).
Usage: To use this indicator, simply add it to your TradingView chart and adjust the input parameters as desired. The strength score and threshold line will be plotted on the chart, and a label will display the strength category at the last point of the indicator. Traders can use the strength score and category to make informed trading decisions based on the strength of the cryptocurrency.
Price Extrapolator with Std DeviationPrice Extrapolator with Deviation Cones - A Powerful Tool for Predicting Future Prices
Subtitle: Discover how this custom indicator can help you forecast potential price movements with greater accuracy, using historical data.
Introduction
Predicting future price movements is always a challenge for traders and investors. However, by using historical data and statistical analysis, it is possible to make educated guesses about the likelihood of certain outcomes. One such tool for predicting future prices is the Price Extrapolator with Standard Deviation Cones. This custom indicator, can help you visualize potential price movements and their associated risks.
In this post, we will explain how the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones works, how to adjust its settings to suit your needs, and how to interpret its output. By the end of this article, you should have a better understanding of how this powerful tool can help you make more informed decisions when trading or investing in financial markets.
Understanding the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones
The Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones is a custom indicator that uses historical price data to calculate the average log return and standard deviation of log returns over a specified period. It then uses this information to extrapolate a series of future price points, as well as upper and lower standard deviation bands that form the "deviation cones."
The average log return represents the expected price change, while the standard deviation of log returns provides a measure of the uncertainty or risk associated with the prediction. The deviation cones can help you visualize the range of potential price movements and assess the likelihood of different outcomes.
Configuring the Indicator
To use the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones, you will need to configure several input settings:
1. Length: This setting determines the number of historical data points used to calculate the average log return and standard deviation of log returns. A higher value will produce a smoother, less sensitive indicator, while a lower value will make the indicator more responsive to recent price changes.
2. Number of Future Price Points: This setting controls the number of future price points to extrapolate. Increasing this value will extend the deviation cones further into the future.
3. Multiplier: This setting adjusts the tightness of the deviation cones by controlling the standard deviation multiplier. A higher value will result in wider cones, indicating greater uncertainty, while a lower value will produce narrower cones, suggesting more confidence in the prediction.
Interpreting the Output
After configuring the indicator, you will see the following output on your chart:
1. Green Line: This line represents the extrapolated future price points based on the average log return. It provides a central estimate of potential price movements.
2. Red Lines: These lines form the upper and lower bounds of the deviation cones. They represent the range of potential price movements, taking into account the uncertainty associated with the prediction.
When using the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones, it is essential to remember that the output is only a prediction based on historical data and should not be taken as a guarantee of future price movements. However, by providing a visual representation of potential price movements and their associated risks, this indicator can help you make more informed decisions when trading or investing in financial markets.
The Extreme Limitations of the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones
While the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones can be a valuable addition to your trading toolbox, it is essential to recognize its limitations. As with any forecasting tool, it is not infallible and should be used in conjunction with other forms of analysis. In this section, we will discuss the extreme limitations of this indicator and provide insight into how to use it effectively despite these constraints.
1. Reliance on Historical Data
The Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones relies heavily on historical price data to make its predictions. While this can provide valuable insights into past trends and patterns, it may not accurately predict future price movements in a constantly changing market.
Market conditions can change rapidly, and historical data may not be a reliable indicator of future performance. Economic events, geopolitical tensions, and changes in market sentiment can all influence price movements in ways that may not be captured by historical data alone.
2. Assumption of Lognormal Distribution
The indicator assumes that price returns follow a lognormal distribution, which may not always be the case. Financial markets can exhibit skewness and kurtosis, resulting in distributions that are not symmetrical or normally distributed. This can lead to inaccurate predictions and a false sense of security when relying on the deviation cones.
3. No Consideration of Fundamental Factors
The Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones is a purely technical analysis tool, meaning it does not take into account fundamental factors that can influence price movements. Changes in company earnings, interest rates, or economic data can significantly impact asset prices and may not be factored into the indicator's predictions.
4. Limited Time Horizon
The indicator only provides predictions for a limited number of future price points, which may not be sufficient for long-term investors or traders with longer holding periods. Additionally, the accuracy of the predictions may decrease as the time horizon extends, due to the compounding effects of uncertainty and the limitations of historical data.
5. Potential for Overfitting
When adjusting the settings of the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones, there is a risk of overfitting the model to the historical data. This can result in an indicator that appears to have excellent predictive power on past data but performs poorly on unseen, future data. It is crucial to be cautious when optimizing the settings and use out-of-sample testing to validate the indicator's performance.
Using the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones Effectively
Despite these limitations, the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones can still be a valuable tool when used correctly. To use this indicator effectively, consider the following tips:
1. Supplement with Other Forms of Analysis: Use the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones alongside other technical and fundamental analysis methods to gain a more comprehensive understanding of potential price movements.
2. Diversify your Trading Strategies: Do not rely solely on the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones for your trading decisions. Instead, diversify your strategies and consider multiple indicators and methods to reduce the risk of overreliance on a single tool.
3. Be Cautious with Optimized Settings: When adjusting the indicator's settings, be mindful of the risk of overfitting and validate the performance with out-of-sample testing.
4. Keep an Eye on Market Conditions: Stay informed about current market conditions, economic events, and news that may impact your trading decisions. This will help you make more informed decisions when using the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones.
In conclusion, the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones is a powerful and versatile tool that can aid traders and investors in predicting potential future price movements. However, it is crucial to remember that this indicator has its limitations, which stem from its reliance on historical data, the assumption of lognormal distribution, its disregard for fundamental factors, limited time horizons, and the potential for overfitting. Despite these constraints, when used correctly and in conjunction with other forms of analysis, the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones can provide valuable insights and assist in making more informed trading and investing decisions.
By understanding the underlying mechanics of the indicator, adjusting its settings according to your needs, and being aware of its limitations, you can incorporate the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones into your trading arsenal effectively. Always remember that no single tool or indicator is infallible, and it is essential to use a diverse range of analysis methods and strategies to navigate the ever-changing financial markets successfully. Happy trading!
Potential Gain/Loss IndicatorThis indicator calculates the gains and losses in percentage based on the highest high (ATH) and lowest low (ATL) of a given period. It takes the period as an input parameter and calculates the ATH and ATL within that period.
The indicator then calculates the potential gains in percentage if the price goes back to the ATH, as well as the potential losses in percentage if the price goes back to the ATL.
A filled area chart is plotted to show the difference between gains and losses (gains - losses) using a stepline, with green color when positive and red color when negative. The coefficient parameter allows for adjusting the scale of the gains and losses.
# Parameters
1. `period` (integer): The period used for calculating the highest high (ATH) and lowest low (ATL) within the given range. The default value is 50, and the user can select any value greater than or equal to 1.
2. `coef` (float): A coefficient to adjust the scale of the gains and losses. The default value is 0.5, and the user can select any value greater than or equal to 0.1.
Fibonacci Retracements & Trend Following Strategy Hello! This code creates a Fibonacci retracement indicator and a trend-following strategy indicator. Trading signals and price reversal targets are also calculated. The overall structure of the code is quite clear and readable. The purpose of the code is to calculate Fibonacci retracement levels and a trend-following indicator, display price levels on a chart, calculate trading signals, and calculate price reversal targets.
In the first section, Fibonacci levels are determined. Four different Fibonacci levels are defined: 0.236, 0.382, 0.618, and 0.786. These levels will be used as retracement levels.
Next, a trend-following indicator is calculated. This indicator calculates the averages of high and low prices over a certain period. This indicator can be used to determine the direction of the trend.
Then, price levels are calculated. These levels are determined by calculating the difference between the highest and lowest prices of the trend-following indicator. These levels are used in the calculation of Fibonacci retracement levels.
Next, Fibonacci levels are calculated. These levels are calculated by multiplying price levels with Fibonacci retracement levels. These levels are displayed on the chart.
Trading signals and price reversal targets are calculated. This can be used to trade using a Fibonacci retracement strategy.
Finally, price reversal targets are displayed as circles on the chart.
Usage Guide: Fibonacci Retracement Indicator and Trend Following Strategy
This indicator is used for calculating Fibonacci retracement levels and a trend following indicator, displaying price levels on the chart, calculating trading signals, and determining price targets for reversals. It is important to understand how the indicator works and what type of trading signals it generates before trading with it.
1.)Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Fibonacci retracement levels are used to measure the retracement levels of a trend on the chart. These levels can be used where traders are looking for a reversal signal in the market.
This indicator uses four different Fibonacci levels, which are 0.236, 0.382, 0.618, and 0.786. These levels will be used as retracement levels.
2.)Trend Following Indicator
The trend following indicator calculates the averages of high and low prices over a specific period. This indicator can be used to determine the direction of the trend. While showing a rising trend, it helps the prices stay high, and when showing a falling trend, it can help the prices stay low.
3.)Price Levels
Price levels are determined by calculating the difference between the highest and lowest prices of the trend following indicator. These levels are used to calculate Fibonacci retracement levels.
4.)Trading Signals and Price Reversal Targets
Trading signals and price reversal targets can be used to trade using a Fibonacci retracement strategy. The indicator can buy at Fibonacci levels where prices are retreating in an uptrend, and sell at Fibonacci levels where prices are retreating in a downtrend.
Price reversal targets are shown on the chart in circles.
5.)Fibonacci Retracement Targets
The Fibonacci retracement targets are shown in circles on the chart. These target price levels are calculated by applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the high and low price ranges. These levels can help determine buy or sell signals.
6.)Buy and Sell Signals
The most important feature of the indicator is to determine buy and sell signals. A buy signal is given when the trend-following indicator falls below one of the Fibonacci retracement levels and the price drops below it. A sell signal is given when the trend-following indicator rises and the price goes above one of the Fibonacci retracement levels.
7.)Target Price Levels
Using the retracement levels can be used to determine potential target price levels. Target price levels are determined based on Fibonacci retracement levels and positions can be closed when these levels are reached.
8.)Examples of Using the Indicator:
a) Buy Signal
If the trend-following indicator drops below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and the price falls below it, a buy signal can be given. The target price level can be between the 0.382 and 0.236 Fibonacci retracement levels.
b) Sell Signal
If the trend-following indicator rises and the price goes above the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, a sell signal can be given. The target price level can be between the 0.382 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels.
c) Target Price Levels
When a position is opened, target price levels can be determined based on Fibonacci retracement levels. For example, when opening a buy position, the target price level can be between the 0.382 and 0.236 Fibonacci retracement levels.
The use of the indicator can be made more effective by using it together with other technical analysis tools. In addition, practical experimentation with the use of the indicator in different scenarios can help understand how the indicator works.
