Gold’s Roadmap: TRZ + Resistance = High-Probability Reversal

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Gold(XAUUSD) rose to the Resistance zone($4,192 – $4,133) as I expected in the previous idea and reached its target.

Gold is currently moving near the Resistance zone($4,192 – $4,133) and in the Time Reversal Zone(TRZ).

In terms of Elliott Wave theory, it seems that Gold has managed to complete a Double Three Correction(WXY) in the ascending channel during the 7 trading days.

I expect Gold to start falling after the Resistance zone($4,192 – $4,133).

First Target: $4,077

Second Target: $4,037

Stop Loss(SL): $4,195(Worst)

Points may shift as the market evolves
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In the upcoming hours, the U.S. will release a batch of key economic indicators: Core PPI, PPI, Core Retail Sales, and Retail Sales. These prints directly influence inflation expectations and the interest-rate outlook, which makes gold particularly sensitive today.

My personal outlook on Gold:

If the data comes in hotter than expected, Treasury yields may rise, and the dollar could strengthen, putting short-term downward pressure on gold.

If the data comes in softer than expected, markets may quickly price in lower inflation pressure and a more dovish Fed path. This scenario typically gives gold a strong short-term upside push, especially if PPI and Core PPI print below estimates.

Overall, with the current structure, the market reaction in the first 15–30 minutes after the release matters more than the numbers themselves. Monitoring volatility and price behavior right after the release will help determine the day’s dominant direction.
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Ukraine appears to have agreed to the terms of the peace agreement.

Why does this kind of news usually push Gold lower?

Gold acts as a safe-haven during periods of war, geopolitical tension, and uncertainty.
When credible news of peace emerges, the demand for safe-haven assets declines → lowering gold demand.

Global risk sentiment improves, and capital flows toward risk-on assets such as equities, stronger currencies, and yield-bearing markets.

If a peace agreement reduces tensions around energy or oil markets, inflationary pressure eases → making gold less attractive.
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💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.

📌 Gold Analyze (XAUUSD), 1-hour time frame.

🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.

✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!

🔥 If you find it helpful, please BOOST this post and share it with your friends.

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According to recent US data released.

Released data:

Jobless Claims: 216K (better → strong labor market)

Core Durable Goods: 0.6% (stronger-than-expected → bullish for USD)

Durable Goods: 0.5% (in line, but lower than the previous month)

Impact:

Stronger labor + stronger core orders → USD bullish, yields may rise.

This combination generally puts downward pressure on Gold.

Gold likely sees short-term downside, not a crash but a controlled drop

As long as gold is in a descending channel, it has the potential to fall in terms of technical analysis.