Dow Jumps to New Highs as Fed Cut, Oracle Miss Fuel Shift from Tech to Value Stocks

The S&P 500 Index SPY today is down up +0.05%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index DIA is up by +1.25%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index QQQ is down by -0.52%.

Stock indexes are mixed today, with the Nasdaq 100 falling to a 1-week low and the Dow Jones Industrials climbing to a new all-time high. The broader market is under pressure today after Oracle's earnings, viewed as a bellwether of the AI investment boom, came in worse than expected, fueling concerns about the vast spending tied to artificial intelligence. Shares of Oracle are down more than -12% to lead AI stocks lower after it reported Q2 cloud sales that missed estimates and raised its 2026 capital spending outlook by $15 billion to $50 billion. Oracle’s results reignited worries about tech valuations and whether the capital outlays on AI infrastructure will pay off.

Stocks have underlying support from a jump in weekly jobless claims to a 3-month high, which knocked bond yields lower. The 10-year T-note yield is down -4 bp to 4.11%. Also, a +3% rally in Visa shares today is boosting the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

US weekly initial unemployment claims rose by +44,000 to a 3-month high of 236,000, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 220,000.

The US Sep trade deficit unexpectedly shrank to -$52.8 billion versus expectations of a widening to -$63.1 billion and the smallest deficit in 5.25 years.

The markets are discounting a 24% chance that the FOMC will cut the fed funds target range by 25 bp at the January 27-28 FOMC meeting.

Q3 corporate earnings season is drawing to a close as 495 of the 500 S&P companies have released results. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 83% of reporting S&P 500 companies exceeded forecasts, on course for the best quarter since 2021. Q3 earnings rose +14.6%, more than doubling expectations of +7.2% y/y. 

Overseas stock markets are mixed today. The Euro Stoxx 50 rallied to a 4-weekhigh and is up +1.07%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed down -0.70%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.90%.

Interest Rates

March 10-year T-notes (ZNH6) today are up by +13 ticks. The 10-year T-note yield is down -3.1 bp to 4.116%. T-notes are climbing today as weakness in stocks has prompted some safe-haven buying of government debt. T-notes also have carryover support from Wednesday when the FOMC cut its 2025 and 2026 US core PCE price estimates, and Fed Chair Powell said that he doesn't think a rate hike is anybody's base case for the Fed's next policy move. T-notes held their gains after weekly jobless claims unexpectedly rose to a 3-month high, a dovish factor for Fed policy. Supply pressures may limit further upside in T-notes ahead of the Treasury’s $22 billion auction of 30-year T-bonds later today.

European government bond yields are moving lower today. The 10-year German bund yield is down by -0.6 bp to 2.845%. The 10-year UK gilt yield is down by -3.4 bp to 4.472%.

Swaps are discounting a 1% chance for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at its next policy meeting on December 18.

US Stock Movers

Oracle ORCL is down more than -12% to lead the S&P 500 losers, and AI-infrastructure stocks are lower today after reporting Q2 adjusted revenue of $16.06 billion, below the consensus of $16.21 billion, and raising its 2026 capital spending outlook by $15 billion to $50 billion. CoreWeave CRWV is down more than -7%, and Nebius Group NV NBIS is down more than -4% on the news. 

Chip makers are sliding today, weighing on the broader market. ARM Holdings Plc ARM and Marvell Technology MRVL are down more than -4%. Also, Advanced Micro Devices AMD, Nvidia NVDA, and Broadcom AVGO are down more than -3%. In addition, Intel INTC, Applied Materials AMAT, GlobalFoundries GFS, KLA Corp KLAC, Micron Technology MU, and Lam Research LRCX are down more than -2%.

Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are under pressure today with Bitcoin MSTR is down more than -6% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100. Also, Riot Platforms RIOT and MARA Holdings MARA are down more than -5%, Coinbase Global COIN is down more than -4%, and Galaxy Digital Holdings GLXY is down more than -3%. 

Fertilizer stocks are moving higher today after Ukraine said its drones attacked two fertilizer plants in western Russia. Mosaic MOS is up more than +6% to lead gainers in the S&P 500. Also, Intrepid Potash IPI is up more than +4%, and CF Industries Holdings CF and FMC Corp FMC are up more than +3%. 

Oxford Industries OXM is down more than -22% after cutting its 2026 adjusted EPS forecast to $2.20-$2.40 from a previous estimate of $2.80-$3.20, well below the consensus of $2.91. 

Lovesac Co LOVE is down more than -13% after cutting its 2026 net sales forecast to $685 million-$705 million from a previous forecast of $710 million-$740 million, weaker than the consensus of $713.7 million. 

Stellantis NV STLA is down more than -3% after BNP Paribas Exane downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral. 

Intuitive Surgical ISRG is down more than -1% after Citigroup downgraded the stock to neutral from buy. 

Gemini Space Station Inc GEMI is up more than +17% after the company’s application for a derivatives exchange was approved by the Commodity Futures Exchange Commission. 

Ciena Corp CIEN is up more than +6% after reporting Q4 revenue of $1.35 billion, better than the consensus of $1.29 billion. 

Visa V is up more than +3% to lead gainers in the Dow Jones Industrials after Bank of America Global Research upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a price target of $382.

Unity Software U is up more than +2% after Piper Sandler upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a price target of $59. 

JB Hunt Transport Services JBHT is up more than +2% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $227. 

West Pharmaceutical Services WST is up more than +1% after Nephron Research LLC upgraded the stock to buy from hold with a price target of $367. 

Earnings Reports(12/11/2025)

Broadcom Inc (AVGO), Ciena Corp (CIEN), Costco Wholesale Corp (COST), Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU), RH (RH). 

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes.For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

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