XAUUSD - Nearing Key Fibonacci Support as Powell Keeps Hawkish

Gold prices dipped due to the strength of the US dollar, influenced by Jerome Powell's hawkish remarks at a central banking forum. By late afternoon, XAU/USD was down 0.15% at $1,910, nearing its lowest point since March 15. It is expected to end the month with a decline of over 2.5%.

During a panel discussion in Sintra, Powell expressed concerns that the bank's policies may not be strict enough. He stated that a majority of Fed officials are in favor of raising borrowing costs twice in 2023. While some traders doubt the possibility of a 50 basis point increase this year, it should not be completely dismissed.

The US economy has been strong, but traders shouldn't underestimate its resilience. If data keeps surprising on the positive side, policymakers will have to raise interest rates to combat inflation.

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The highest interest rates may increase further, and the belief that monetary policy will remain tighter for longer will cause nominal and real yields to rise at present, putting pressure on precious metals in the future. Although prospects may change if the US economy worsens, there are no signs that this will happen soon.

From a technical analysis perspective, gold appears to be heading towards a critical support level near $1,895, determined by the Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2% from the lowest point in September 2022 to the highest point in May 2023. Traders should carefully monitor this area as a break below could accelerate selling momentum, paving the way for a retest of $1,855.

If buyers return to the market and trigger a recovery, the initial resistance level will be around $1,925/$1,930. If this barrier is cleared, we could see the price rise to $1,970. Furthermore, the focus will then shift to the psychological level of $2,000.

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