Bitcoin weekend ZigZag movement, Completing correction
Update from yesterday:
For now, there is what looks like in inverse H&S in the making (right). But the shoulders are very ugly, not the shape they normally should be. Also, if we move up to soon and break the neckline, think chance of failure is also very big.
On the left we can see the big resistance zone is around 12500, so if we dont move up with some good buy volume and break that zone, i think we might be able to test the lows again as shown in the update above. To break this short term bear trend, 12500ish would be a big step, but the real deal will be around 13.000. If that one breaks, i think the chances that we have set THE high wil drop from 50% to like 20%. Doesnt mean we will simply rally in a straight line again, but chance for a rally later on will increase much more.
futures on Bitmex expired today, so all the alt/btc futures expired at the lows of the lows. So, if we do so a good consolidation coming days or so, maybe, just maybe this time we will see alts grow again. Since the whales already closed the futures they prob shorted at the lows, maybe this time they will let them rally a bit more. Just a theory, but realistic one.
in general we can say, the longer this consolidation takes between 13000/10000, the better (bullish) it will be for the coming month or 2.
Also, don't forget, it's almost weekend, manipulation is always at it's highest during weekend, so don't get trapped.
So the ugly shoulder were a sign and the 12500ish held it's ground as well. Made a decent drop, but nothing yet indicating the bull trend is over.
At the moment we are moving in a channel. It also can be seen like an H&S as well if the channel breaks on the low side. On the right, we see some strength from the bulls, in the shape of an inverse H&S. Make no mistake, both of these H&S pattern at these positions, are very unreliable. They happen, but they fail more often than that they succeed.
When zooming out a bit, it looks like we should still make a correction down before moving up again, completing an ABC. I am always very cautions during weekends because manipulation is always at it's highest. Can always see, that when to much buy volume gets in that price dumps as soon as the buy volume drops and vice versa. So we almost never see the real direction during weekends. One can benefit from weekend movements as a day trader, but one has to know that sometimes the opposite of what normally would happen can happen.
Alts are showing some bullish movement today, putting alt/btc pairs in the plus, which has not happened for a while lately.
I started writing this like 15m before the break up, but waited so i didn't look like a fool ;). Anyway, the H&S already failed again, just another Saturday trap move. We can see that channel in the middle never broke. But think it's best to zoom out a little bit, because we have a lot of noise on the lower time frame. Think that trend line on the left is a very important one. So i think the range to watch now is 11700/800 and 12400/500. Also would still make most sense to make another drop to complete this correctional move from that big rally we had past weeks. The movement since yesterday, from the 11400 has been zigzagging it's way up, which is usually a sign of a correctional move. While as we can see the move up from the 11400 to the 12400, was more like an impulse wave up. So to me that says that mid-term we should still consider bullish movement. But short term that bearish movement is more likely.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
For now, there is what looks like in inverse H&S in the making (right). But the shoulders are very ugly, not the shape they normally should be. Also, if we move up to soon and break the neckline, think chance of failure is also very big.
On the left we can see the big resistance zone is around 12500, so if we dont move up with some good buy volume and break that zone, i think we might be able to test the lows again as shown in the update above. To break this short term bear trend, 12500ish would be a big step, but the real deal will be around 13.000. If that one breaks, i think the chances that we have set THE high wil drop from 50% to like 20%. Doesnt mean we will simply rally in a straight line again, but chance for a rally later on will increase much more.
futures on Bitmex expired today, so all the alt/btc futures expired at the lows of the lows. So, if we do so a good consolidation coming days or so, maybe, just maybe this time we will see alts grow again. Since the whales already closed the futures they prob shorted at the lows, maybe this time they will let them rally a bit more. Just a theory, but realistic one.
in general we can say, the longer this consolidation takes between 13000/10000, the better (bullish) it will be for the coming month or 2.
Also, don't forget, it's almost weekend, manipulation is always at it's highest during weekend, so don't get trapped.
So the ugly shoulder were a sign and the 12500ish held it's ground as well. Made a decent drop, but nothing yet indicating the bull trend is over.
At the moment we are moving in a channel. It also can be seen like an H&S as well if the channel breaks on the low side. On the right, we see some strength from the bulls, in the shape of an inverse H&S. Make no mistake, both of these H&S pattern at these positions, are very unreliable. They happen, but they fail more often than that they succeed.
When zooming out a bit, it looks like we should still make a correction down before moving up again, completing an ABC. I am always very cautions during weekends because manipulation is always at it's highest. Can always see, that when to much buy volume gets in that price dumps as soon as the buy volume drops and vice versa. So we almost never see the real direction during weekends. One can benefit from weekend movements as a day trader, but one has to know that sometimes the opposite of what normally would happen can happen.
Alts are showing some bullish movement today, putting alt/btc pairs in the plus, which has not happened for a while lately.
I started writing this like 15m before the break up, but waited so i didn't look like a fool ;). Anyway, the H&S already failed again, just another Saturday trap move. We can see that channel in the middle never broke. But think it's best to zoom out a little bit, because we have a lot of noise on the lower time frame. Think that trend line on the left is a very important one. So i think the range to watch now is 11700/800 and 12400/500. Also would still make most sense to make another drop to complete this correctional move from that big rally we had past weeks. The movement since yesterday, from the 11400 has been zigzagging it's way up, which is usually a sign of a correctional move. While as we can see the move up from the 11400 to the 12400, was more like an impulse wave up. So to me that says that mid-term we should still consider bullish movement. But short term that bearish movement is more likely.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
ความคิดเห็น:
ETH has been a better one to follow, less noise than Bitcoin. It has been bumping against a big resistance past 2 days. We can see we had a small bearish wedge just now where it broke out of. At the moment it's still just a retest of former support, but if the bulls are able to push it above that red zone, then i think the bearish pressure will be come off. That could also mean that Bitcoin might go higher again as well.
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Just called a nice local low in my public channel :) "Potential for a local low now, sell volumes has been very high though, so i think it's just a temp one, so think we could see another drop again tomorrow"
Talk about nice timing :) already up 200/250 points. So i think we might see a fast move up but still 1 more drop later today or tomorrow. Could even go below the big support zone on the left. Shaking out all the longs, triggering all the stops from people who felt safe above the 10500ish zone. Would be the ideal plan from whales to shake people out and fill up longs.
At the moment, the 11.000ish is a big level to break for the bulls. If that one breaks, we should be seeing another move to like 11200/400 i think. If that 11400ish breaks, then maybe the low is set even.
So a small inverse H&S could be formed now. If we see a max drop to like 10800ish, the right shoulder could be formed and we could see the correction up get some more follow through
Talk about nice timing :) already up 200/250 points. So i think we might see a fast move up but still 1 more drop later today or tomorrow. Could even go below the big support zone on the left. Shaking out all the longs, triggering all the stops from people who felt safe above the 10500ish zone. Would be the ideal plan from whales to shake people out and fill up longs.
At the moment, the 11.000ish is a big level to break for the bulls. If that one breaks, we should be seeing another move to like 11200/400 i think. If that 11400ish breaks, then maybe the low is set even.
So a small inverse H&S could be formed now. If we see a max drop to like 10800ish, the right shoulder could be formed and we could see the correction up get some more follow through
ความคิดเห็น:
Lol, the blue lines are like magnets :)
Support broke, no dump yet, but unless we see a quick move above the 10400/500 again, there is a lot of danger in the market now. Could even see a retest of the 9400/9800. So far a little bounce, but needs to be more aggressive (so something like a small V shape). We need to see shorts closing in panic, before we can think a low might be set.
Support broke, no dump yet, but unless we see a quick move above the 10400/500 again, there is a lot of danger in the market now. Could even see a retest of the 9400/9800. So far a little bounce, but needs to be more aggressive (so something like a small V shape). We need to see shorts closing in panic, before we can think a low might be set.
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