The crypto market revealed its cards with the recent trends in BTC --> ETH --> LTC --> XRP --> XLM . Historically, ZRX is a laggard, but when it moves, it overextends and overshadows the entire market. This chart is very busy, but there's a lot of history to take into consideration. For now, just focus on the cyan path leading up toward ~$1.80. We're setting up for a potential inverse H&S that will propel the price up to at least $0.70. The momentum from this move could develop into a super-massive C&H extending all the way back to 2018, with price targets just below $2.00. The price target lines up with prior uptrend resistance going into the end of this year. If the price breaks further down into the cyan boxes, I will continue to accumulate under the assumption that eventually we will at least go back to $0.70. I consider this trade to be a checkmate move. Going into 2021, there's nowhere else for the price to go but up. The only way I can see this trade completely failing is in the case of a black swan event. Let's see what happens.
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Absolutely incredible plummet in ZRXUSDSHORT interest on Bitfinex. On the surface, this might seem like a very positive signal, but statistically this is a not necessarily a good or bad thing. Sometimes short interest is correlated with price, and other times it is anti-correlated depending on the psychology of the market (if they believe in the price movement or not). Something is brewing...
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So, it turns out the massive plummet in shorts didn't really materialize into anything, at least not yet. Price is squeezing on a lot of alts the same way. It should choose up or down in the next couple of days. The pattern in ZRX looks relatively similar to KNC, XTZ, ALGO, and a few others. A few alts (REP and COMP) managed to break through to higher highs. Sometimes during big alt runs, the first movers exhaust early, and the tortoise laggards rocket past them. Other times, the first movers are the only ones that run at all, and the laggard coins turn into complete failures. In this case, I'm betting on the former, but still open to all possibilities at this point in time, especially in light of the mysterious US regulations coming this month. If the governments grip squeezes at the throat of decentralized exchanges, it would be a true black swan event for coins like ZRX. As always, let's see what happens.
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Delayed, yes. Dead, no. Look at the chart. Bounced directly off of long term support on Dec 11. Targets won't get hit until Jan 2021, but still looks like it's going to happen. However, the extreme weakness in price movement over the last month puts more emphasis on the lower targets between ~$0.75 and ~$1.30, and less emphasis on the higher targets near ~$1.8. Weakness is almost never rewarded.
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Entered the first accumulation zone and went straight to the bottom without thinking to create a triple bottom (so far). First the market was hit with US regulation announcements (Black Swan #1). Now the market is hit again with the XRP security lawsuit (Black Swan #2). At this point, anything can happen, but now is a logical time to accumulate. A breakdown below $0.30 would send the price down toward the lower $0.20 range easily, and from that point we're looking at a bear market for at least the first half of 2021. If it holds above $0.30 for the next couple of weeks and establishes this point as a base / local bottom, the $0.50 to $0.75 range still looks attractive. Forget anything above $0.75 in these market conditions. Black swan #3 can come at literally anytime. Let's see what happens.
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The V bottom here could signal the end of this overextended bear cycle. It wicked to the bottom of the first accumulation zone (cyan rectangle) with very high precision. This zone is probably the best zone to buy, period. Best doesn't necessarily mean lowest. A lot of people don't realize that greed goes both ways. You can get greedy waiting for the market to go up too high to sell, and also get greedy waiting for the market to crash too low to buy. Technically, the price absolutely can break down to the $0.20 range, but the amount of selling pressure required to break multi-year support at $0.30 is pretty unbelievable, and if it does break down that low, it will cripple any possible upside for a long time. If it holds here, very high targets will take some time to develop, but are still in-tact.
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Pretty nice push toward $0.65 yesterday. Better late than never. I think we should push toward $0.70 and maybe even $0.75 in the next few days. The pullback probably bottomed at $0.475, but may wick down to $0.46. Any deeper $0.45 and I would start to get worried. Once we get to the zone between $0.70 - 0.75, there are two possibilities. Either (A) It treats it as hard resistance and pulls back, in which case the strategy is to buy on the pullback. or (B) It blows straight through, in which case the strategy is to buy after it returns back to this zone.
Sidenote: There is a finite probability that ~$0.7 is the end of the road, and we have a massive retrace from that point as the whole market drops. There is a difference between being a laggard and being dead. I hate to give up on ZRX at this point, but the tide is quickly starting to turn toward death as the price ratios between it and other coins becomes more exaggerated. It absolutely needs to break through to a higher high above $1 with substantial follow through. None of this pump and dump full retrace nonsense like what happened in August. If that kind of thing happens again, or it can't make a higher high in the next ~6 weeks, I'll likely exit my position fully put my energy elsewhere.
Sidenote: There is a finite probability that ~$0.7 is the end of the road, and we have a massive retrace from that point as the whole market drops. There is a difference between being a laggard and being dead. I hate to give up on ZRX at this point, but the tide is quickly starting to turn toward death as the price ratios between it and other coins becomes more exaggerated. It absolutely needs to break through to a higher high above $1 with substantial follow through. None of this pump and dump full retrace nonsense like what happened in August. If that kind of thing happens again, or it can't make a higher high in the next ~6 weeks, I'll likely exit my position fully put my energy elsewhere.
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I mentioned in my previous comment, there's a difference between being a laggard and being dead. At this point, ZRX coin is truly dead compared to most of its competitors. It will be almost impossible to catch up to the gains seen by coins like UNI and CRV during this cycle. It doesn't mean that it can't rise substantially over the long term, but the resistance is too strong and these pullbacks are too extreme. I believe a real breakout is coming soon, but I expect it to get hammered by a pullbacks and drawn out consolidation patterns all the way up to wherever it's going. Yeah, ZRX also has a history of magic rocket candles (e.g. May 7th), but let's talk about that when it actually starts slicing through resistance zones like butter.
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ZRX, will you be my valentine?
Clearly parabolic support.
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Better late than never! Heavy resistance around $1.3. It's a good area to take some profit. The original $1.8 target is still valid, but since accumulation lasted longer than I expected, my new highest target is around $2.4.