We have decided to adjust our forecast for the end of the U.S. Treasury yield curve so that the 10-year yield is 4.25% by the end of 2024.
Our forecasts are below market expectations, but in particular he is ahead of public forecasts through the end of 2024.
Our two-year forecast reflects a smaller decline in interest rates than consensus forecasts due to market expectations for higher nominal neutral rates and the risk of increased economic resilience.
Strong growth will lead to higher interest rates, which will be higher than expected
An increase in the supply of U.S. Treasuries could cause U.S. long-term interest rates to rise and the yield curve to become steeper than expected.
A deepening US recession and further crisis in the banking sector could raise the possibility of rate cuts.