WTI is less affected by conflict

26 ส.ค.

As tensions in the Middle East continue to emerge, oil prices may continue to be supported by short-term geopolitical risks. However, this sudden impact is gradually easing. Next, crude oil traders should still pay attention to the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision and further developments in the Middle East.

Ceasefire talks in Cairo between Israel and Palestinian militia Hamas went ahead as scheduled on Sunday, showing relative calm after the exchange of fire. Israel eased security restrictions in the country on Sunday evening, hours after previously declaring a state of emergency and closing the main airport.

Although the Middle East supplies about a third of the world's crude oil, oil market fundamentals have not been significantly affected by this conflict. Mainly for crude oil traders, they will still need to pay attention to the principle of supply and demand in the market "usually regulated by OPEC", and monetary policies related to USD when WTI crude oil is traded. priced in USD.

Geopolitical risks and expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates next month combined to push WTI crude oil prices to a recovery late last week. In a speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave the clearest signal yet that the job of containing inflation is complete, saying “the time has come for change.” policy", reinforcing market expectations of a possible interest rate cut next month.

On the daily chart, USOIL is still limited by pressure from the 21-day moving average (EMA21) and is still in a falling price channel.
Although WTI crude oil has recovered significantly, current technical conditions are still more bearish than bullish, with a new bearish cycle possibly being ushered in as it falls. below the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level, and the latter target is 72.32 in the short term and above that is 71.68SUSD.
Meanwhile, for WTI crude oil to have enough bullish conditions, it would at least need to break above the technical level that acts as horizontal resistance at 77.58USD confluence with the upper edge of the price channel, then the short-term target is around 78.11USD and more than 79.62USD.
The relative strength index (RSI) is showing signs of bending after recovering to the 50% level and this should be seen as a signal that there is still further downside ahead.

During the day, the technical outlook for WTI crude oil is more bearish and notable levels are listed below.
Support: 74.71 – 72.32SUSD
Resistance: 75.66 – 76.59 – 77.58USD

26 ส.ค.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Oil prices increased +0.035% after tensions between Israel and Lebanon continued to escalate over the weekend.

In terms of technical analysis, WTI oil prices rebounded before reaching the important support level around 72 USD/barrel. With concerns about US demand, oil prices may have more room to recover.

9 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

9 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Crude oil prices rebounded on news that a hurricane could hit the US Gulf Coast by mid-week, with the US National Hurricane Center saying yesterday that the weather system in the southwest Gulf of Mexico is expected to turn into a hurricane before reaching the northwestern Gulf Coast.

16 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Oil prices (USOIL) recovered slightly to about 68.34 USD/barrel (+1.08%).

16 ต.ค.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

The IEA emphasized that the oil market is currently focused on further developments from Israel, especially the possibility of attacks on Iran's key energy infrastructure. Iran's Kharg Island export port, with a capacity to transport 1.6 million barrels of crude oil per day, mainly to China, is the focus of concern. In addition, the risk of spreading conflict to the strategic Strait of Hormuz also receives special attention.