Context
Price failed to clear $554–$555, the 1:1 measured move from the May flag.
A bearish double top formed on the daily; the downswing was kicked off by an island reversal.
Daily Structure
Today price lost $493–$492 (valley/neckline), confirming the double-top breakdown.
Volume confirms: heavier on down days, lighter on bounces.
Price is below the 5-day MA; the 21-day MA is acting as dynamic resistance.
The 50-day and 100-day MAs have also been lost, reinforcing intermediate weakness.
Weekly Context
The major trend remains intact above the longer MA, but the 21-day MA is now broken, aligning the weekly picture with daily weakness.
Key Levels
Resistance: $493–$492 (now breakdown/neckline); $554–$555 (measured-move cap).
Supports on the path lower: intermediate help from the 50/100-day MAs; the 200-day sits beneath the gap.
Target on confirmation: $430–$429 (top of the FVG) via a 1:1 measured move from the double-top.
Scenarios
Bearish continuation (primary): A weekly close below $493–$492 keeps momentum pointed to $430–$429. Expect potential pauses at the 50/100-day MAs; failure there leaves the FVG magnet in play with the 200-day below.
Bullish repair (secondary): A swift reclaim of $493–$492 followed by acceptance back above the 21-day MA would neutralize the breakdown and defer the measured-move path.
Triggers
Downside trigger: Friday close < $493–$492 → activates the 1:1 toward $430–$429.
Upside repair trigger: Daily close back > $493–$492 and back over the 21-day MA → negates immediate breakdown risk.
Risk & Invalidation
Bearish view invalidates on sustained closes back above $493–$492 with the 21-day MA reclaimed as support.
Until then, trend-following bias favors lower highs / lower lows on the daily.
Summary
Rejection at $554–$555, a double-top breakdown through $493–$492, confirming volume, and loss of the 5/21/50/100-day MAs all align bearish in the intermediate term.
The weekly trend is still up overall, but breaking the 21-day brings it into agreement with the daily.
Watch $493–$492 into the weekly close; it’s the pivot between a measured-move drive to $430–$429 and a repair back into range.
Price failed to clear $554–$555, the 1:1 measured move from the May flag.
A bearish double top formed on the daily; the downswing was kicked off by an island reversal.
Daily Structure
Today price lost $493–$492 (valley/neckline), confirming the double-top breakdown.
Volume confirms: heavier on down days, lighter on bounces.
Price is below the 5-day MA; the 21-day MA is acting as dynamic resistance.
The 50-day and 100-day MAs have also been lost, reinforcing intermediate weakness.
Weekly Context
The major trend remains intact above the longer MA, but the 21-day MA is now broken, aligning the weekly picture with daily weakness.
Key Levels
Resistance: $493–$492 (now breakdown/neckline); $554–$555 (measured-move cap).
Supports on the path lower: intermediate help from the 50/100-day MAs; the 200-day sits beneath the gap.
Target on confirmation: $430–$429 (top of the FVG) via a 1:1 measured move from the double-top.
Scenarios
Bearish continuation (primary): A weekly close below $493–$492 keeps momentum pointed to $430–$429. Expect potential pauses at the 50/100-day MAs; failure there leaves the FVG magnet in play with the 200-day below.
Bullish repair (secondary): A swift reclaim of $493–$492 followed by acceptance back above the 21-day MA would neutralize the breakdown and defer the measured-move path.
Triggers
Downside trigger: Friday close < $493–$492 → activates the 1:1 toward $430–$429.
Upside repair trigger: Daily close back > $493–$492 and back over the 21-day MA → negates immediate breakdown risk.
Risk & Invalidation
Bearish view invalidates on sustained closes back above $493–$492 with the 21-day MA reclaimed as support.
Until then, trend-following bias favors lower highs / lower lows on the daily.
Summary
Rejection at $554–$555, a double-top breakdown through $493–$492, confirming volume, and loss of the 5/21/50/100-day MAs all align bearish in the intermediate term.
The weekly trend is still up overall, but breaking the 21-day brings it into agreement with the daily.
Watch $493–$492 into the weekly close; it’s the pivot between a measured-move drive to $430–$429 and a repair back into range.
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมใน ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน