2025-01-30 - priceactiontds - daily update - oil

Good Evening and I hope you are well.

comment: Finally some higher highs again. Market could now transition into a wider trading range and 70 - 76 is my rough guess for now. Bulls need to keep the tiny bit momentum going tomorrow and break above the bear channel and trade above 74 again. If bears dip it below 72.6, we could very well print a lower low below 72 and the range might also expand to the downside.

current market cycle: trading range

key levels: 70 - 76

bull case: Bulls made the first higher high again and need follow-through badly. Above 74 the bear trend is for sure over and a trading range is most likely. Good for the bulls is, that on the daily chart we are still trading above the breakout price which was roughly 70. If they can reverse this strongly, they have a chance of retesting the highs over the next weeks. For now I think they have to be content with staying above 72 and maybe get to 74 again.

Invalidation is below 70.

bear case: Bears want to keep the market below the daily 20ema and prevent bulls from making meaningful higher highs above 74. The bear channel is still valid and on the daily chart the past 3 trading days look like a weak two-legged pullback to the moving average and that is usually a very good buy/sell signal in the direction of the trend. Bears want to print a new low below 72 and then testing 70.

Invalidation is above 74.

short term: Neutral. Bullish above 74 and bearish below 72.

medium-long term - Update from 2025-01-19: Triangle is dead and market is now in a proper trading range with upside to 80 or even 85.

current swing trade: Nope

trade of the day: Buying below 72.4 was good since Monday.