2024-12-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
dax futures - Not getting bullish above 20000. We have a clear wedge which will likely break tomorrow. Once the profit taking begins, it will be nasty. For now longs against the 1h 20ema are decent until we clearly break below and outside of the wedge. I doubt we close this week above 20000 tbh.
comment: Trade the current bull wedge until broken. I expect that we will see a breakout tomorrow or Friday and I do think it’s possible that we close the week below 20000. The rally is beyond overbought and climactic.
current market cycle: bull trend but very late and will end soon
key levels: 20000 - 20300
bull case: 20300. Beyond overbought. Can go some more but not much. High is near or already in.
Invalidation is below 19700.
bear case: Market broke above multiple patterns and chances are good that this is a bull trap and we will reverse soon. For now the bears have nothing but I expect a deep pullback soon. Maybe a pullback to 20000 tomorrow, retest of 20250 or even 20300 and then some more downside. Rough guess as of now.
Invalidation is above 20400.
short term: No more bullish targets. 20000 is the first pullback target and I think we will break out of the bull wedge tomorrow or Friday.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-02: 20000 hit, hope you listened. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your current trading at all. Now it’s about being patient and waiting for the profit taking to start.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the open, duh. 20200 was good support, so longs against that paid multiple times.
tl;dr
dax futures - Not getting bullish above 20000. We have a clear wedge which will likely break tomorrow. Once the profit taking begins, it will be nasty. For now longs against the 1h 20ema are decent until we clearly break below and outside of the wedge. I doubt we close this week above 20000 tbh.
comment: Trade the current bull wedge until broken. I expect that we will see a breakout tomorrow or Friday and I do think it’s possible that we close the week below 20000. The rally is beyond overbought and climactic.
current market cycle: bull trend but very late and will end soon
key levels: 20000 - 20300
bull case: 20300. Beyond overbought. Can go some more but not much. High is near or already in.
Invalidation is below 19700.
bear case: Market broke above multiple patterns and chances are good that this is a bull trap and we will reverse soon. For now the bears have nothing but I expect a deep pullback soon. Maybe a pullback to 20000 tomorrow, retest of 20250 or even 20300 and then some more downside. Rough guess as of now.
Invalidation is above 20400.
short term: No more bullish targets. 20000 is the first pullback target and I think we will break out of the bull wedge tomorrow or Friday.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-02: 20000 hit, hope you listened. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your current trading at all. Now it’s about being patient and waiting for the profit taking to start.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buying the open, duh. 20200 was good support, so longs against that paid multiple times.
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