#202505 - priceactiontds - weekly update - dax

Good Evening and I hope you are well.

comment: Bear mode was good last Monday but that was about it for the bears. Every day market left behind a bullish gap, mostly without closing it. This is overdone, overbought, climactic and a parabolic rally which is always unsustainable. Still those facts do not help anyone shorting this. I am continuing with my plan to scale shorts with stop 22300.

current market cycle: Bull trend (very climactic move last week, market needs to take a breather or will outright crumble again)

key levels: 20500 - 21800

bull case: Bulls are still in full control. The bull channel continues until clearly broken. Bulls now only have the most obvious target left with 22000. There is no reason for bulls to not expect this to go to at least 22000 now. Bears are absolutely doing nothing and we have only 1 bar going the low of the previous day. This is as climactic as it gets but it can go further.

Invalidation is below 21400.

bear case: Bears got a big gap down on Monday and bulls just bought it relentlessly again. Tough times to be a bear. New US - EU tariffs are around the corner and this could be the trigger to finally see some bigger profit taking and the bear awakening. Technically as long as the bull channel holds, bears got nothing. First target next week is closing gaps below. It would be amazing if bear get down to 21400 fast, then 21000 is possible next week.

Invalidation is above 22300.

short term: Neutral until we break below 21400.

medium-long term from 2024-01-25: No more bullish talk. Full fucking bear mode.

current swing trade: Scaling in and out of shorts with stop 22300.

chart update: Adjusted medium term bear leg down to 20800/21000.