3 Drives to Complete the Cycle?
With BTC finally showing a convincing local top at $69,000, I began exploring ideas for where the current retracement could end as well as what's next.
Looking at the $29,300 bottom and creating a trendline with the $39,600 wick on 21 September, we can see it was respected a week later. This would make it a valid trendline in my book.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/9J6cnalt/
A typical retracement in Crypto is the .618, but this one front ran it and only reached a 56% retracement of the move. Nothing too significant but it is important for context.
Keeping the trendline and using some Fibonacci from the late September move to early November, we are entering the same territory for a completed correction of the move.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/TCjDg4UA/
What is interesting it is nearing the same territory as the trendline and the preceding retracement. So I began exploring the idea of us creating a large 3-drives pattern.
The extension from $29,600 to $59,400 to $43,600, the last local high nearly hit the 1.272 extension, which is the target for each of the drives.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/mAbDoOp6/
Now applying some speculation on where price could end up. A few things line up nicely for an area for a bounce.
Below at $50,000 we have quite a few areas of confluence including Fibonacci retrace + time, Trendline, Bull Market support, EW targets as well as psychological $50,000 and falling below Crypto Twitter's idea of the bottom being 52k, which would most likely make them bearish. The perfect storm to destroy retail.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/FKw1YdIf/
Now, we don't have to bottom there. But let's assume we do for the sake of this idea. Where would that take us?
Well, there is a big grey area speculating this much so we can't say for certain. But placing the last extension pull at the trendline + fib time intersection. This is where it would put us.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/tKzkY59Q/
I think this is a very reasonable target for the top of the bull market going into 2022. A lot of people would be caught very caught off guard and left holding their bag until the next bull market. This market is designed to destroy as many people as possible, not to guarantee you riches.
Let me know your thoughts below!
Looking at the $29,300 bottom and creating a trendline with the $39,600 wick on 21 September, we can see it was respected a week later. This would make it a valid trendline in my book.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/9J6cnalt/
A typical retracement in Crypto is the .618, but this one front ran it and only reached a 56% retracement of the move. Nothing too significant but it is important for context.
Keeping the trendline and using some Fibonacci from the late September move to early November, we are entering the same territory for a completed correction of the move.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/TCjDg4UA/
What is interesting it is nearing the same territory as the trendline and the preceding retracement. So I began exploring the idea of us creating a large 3-drives pattern.
The extension from $29,600 to $59,400 to $43,600, the last local high nearly hit the 1.272 extension, which is the target for each of the drives.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/mAbDoOp6/
Now applying some speculation on where price could end up. A few things line up nicely for an area for a bounce.
Below at $50,000 we have quite a few areas of confluence including Fibonacci retrace + time, Trendline, Bull Market support, EW targets as well as psychological $50,000 and falling below Crypto Twitter's idea of the bottom being 52k, which would most likely make them bearish. The perfect storm to destroy retail.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/FKw1YdIf/
Now, we don't have to bottom there. But let's assume we do for the sake of this idea. Where would that take us?
Well, there is a big grey area speculating this much so we can't say for certain. But placing the last extension pull at the trendline + fib time intersection. This is where it would put us.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/tKzkY59Q/
I think this is a very reasonable target for the top of the bull market going into 2022. A lot of people would be caught very caught off guard and left holding their bag until the next bull market. This market is designed to destroy as many people as possible, not to guarantee you riches.
Let me know your thoughts below!
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