Update: BTC Steep 15k Correction- Consolidation Period 4-6 weeks
SUMMARY: BTC neutral but Alts Very Bullish, however, expect consolidation period for potentially 4-6 weeks
-- Technical --
There has been a strong 1D wave correction dropping the price by 15k, followed by a further 7k drop. Must weak hands have been shaken out.
RSI on the daily shows market has been oversold.
Over a period for several days BTC has fallen almost 20k in a massive bull market .
1D Bollinger bands have pierced through the bottom band for several days which implies a bottom has been reached.
Secondly, the wick on the weekly Bollinger band has touched the weekly EMA .
Finally, the BTC price is back below the Stock to Flow (S2F) model value.
-- Fundamentals --
1️⃣ Those weekend futures liquidations. I shared the post above over the weekend that explained the impact of excess leverage and cascading liquidations. That is what drove us below 60k.
2️⃣ JP Morgan FUD. They released a report that claimed the liquidations had an impact on the liquidity in the Bitcoin markets. Not really correct but the FUD did come at a time when traders were already skittish
3️⃣ Impacts of that Turkish Exchange Rugpull. It has been reported that the founder rugpulled and managed to bag over $2bn in BTC . Turkey had some of the largest per capita Bitcoin adoption stats in the world. They were already dealing with the impacts of the Central Bank ban last week and the Exchange rugpull adds insult to injury. There are also fears that those $2bn funds could seen make there way onto the market in some way and potentially impact on the price.
4️⃣ Biden's Cap Gains Proposal. It was announced that Biden is looking to increase capital gains tax to as high as 43.% for high income earners. This is almost double the rate that they have to pay now. Of course, this spooked all markets. All of those wealthy investors who own assets would be in the firing line.
None of these have fundamentally altered my investment thesis in Bitcoin . The last one is particularly nonsensical to me. Firstly, it only applies to High Net Worth US citizens . And, even then, do you logically think that Bitcoin whales would sell now to avoid tax in the future?
"Let's sell Bitcoin now to avoid the tax we have to pay on all those massive future gains".
That sentence is silly which is why I don't think they will really sell.
Moreover, this whole "tax" FUD is mute. That is because it's merely a proposal which is pretty unlikely to pass the Senate. We should not forget that the Dems only hold a razor thin majority and there are a lot of moderate D's who would not support this.
So, it's all noise. I will be enjoying my weekend as all the pub and bars are back open. I won't be stressing about the markets. They will be there when I return.
$$$ Happy Bull Market come Alts season $$$
In addition - if you enjoyed the analysis and would like more : Please hit "like" and "follow".
*Not financial advice and is for educational purposes only. Always DYOR.
SO: What do you think, have I missed something or is there a particular indicator you like? Let me know in the comments.
-- Technical --
There has been a strong 1D wave correction dropping the price by 15k, followed by a further 7k drop. Must weak hands have been shaken out.
RSI on the daily shows market has been oversold.
Over a period for several days BTC has fallen almost 20k in a massive bull market .
1D Bollinger bands have pierced through the bottom band for several days which implies a bottom has been reached.
Secondly, the wick on the weekly Bollinger band has touched the weekly EMA .
Finally, the BTC price is back below the Stock to Flow (S2F) model value.
-- Fundamentals --
1️⃣ Those weekend futures liquidations. I shared the post above over the weekend that explained the impact of excess leverage and cascading liquidations. That is what drove us below 60k.
2️⃣ JP Morgan FUD. They released a report that claimed the liquidations had an impact on the liquidity in the Bitcoin markets. Not really correct but the FUD did come at a time when traders were already skittish
3️⃣ Impacts of that Turkish Exchange Rugpull. It has been reported that the founder rugpulled and managed to bag over $2bn in BTC . Turkey had some of the largest per capita Bitcoin adoption stats in the world. They were already dealing with the impacts of the Central Bank ban last week and the Exchange rugpull adds insult to injury. There are also fears that those $2bn funds could seen make there way onto the market in some way and potentially impact on the price.
4️⃣ Biden's Cap Gains Proposal. It was announced that Biden is looking to increase capital gains tax to as high as 43.% for high income earners. This is almost double the rate that they have to pay now. Of course, this spooked all markets. All of those wealthy investors who own assets would be in the firing line.
None of these have fundamentally altered my investment thesis in Bitcoin . The last one is particularly nonsensical to me. Firstly, it only applies to High Net Worth US citizens . And, even then, do you logically think that Bitcoin whales would sell now to avoid tax in the future?
"Let's sell Bitcoin now to avoid the tax we have to pay on all those massive future gains".
That sentence is silly which is why I don't think they will really sell.
Moreover, this whole "tax" FUD is mute. That is because it's merely a proposal which is pretty unlikely to pass the Senate. We should not forget that the Dems only hold a razor thin majority and there are a lot of moderate D's who would not support this.
So, it's all noise. I will be enjoying my weekend as all the pub and bars are back open. I won't be stressing about the markets. They will be there when I return.
$$$ Happy Bull Market come Alts season $$$
In addition - if you enjoyed the analysis and would like more : Please hit "like" and "follow".
*Not financial advice and is for educational purposes only. Always DYOR.
SO: What do you think, have I missed something or is there a particular indicator you like? Let me know in the comments.
s3.tradingview.com/s...shots/c/cpiTjW6X.png