Bitcoin Extra Update, Trying to make a Double Bottom

6 มิ.ย. 2019

We had some selling volume at the break of that black trend line, the support line of the bearish wedge or triangle. Had a standard retest of former support as resistance and continued to drop. However, it's not really to what i am used to seeing from Bitcoin when the trend is down. Volume is okay, but no real increase with each lower low it was making. So it's starting to feel a bit controlled this drop, which could mean something else is going on.

It won't be the first time to see a certain (bearish) pattern turn into a bullish one. I am still going to assume we will see bearish movement, but if we keep on dropping slowly and in small steps like this, i will change my mind. There are never certainties of course, but if we see it moving inside of that channel (with some margin for wicks of course), the chances for a double bottom will start to increase. Timing this is very difficult, but lets say the bears have like 4 hours left to still be in favor. If we have not broken that channel within the coming 4 hours or so, chances wil slowly start to shift towards the bulls (on the short).

The double bottom suggest that the low might come in 12 hours or so, somewhere in the yellow circle. It's of course never precise, but it will be a good guideline. Also, in theory with a double bottom we want to see the price reach the same low as at the start of this pattern. But it can also be 100ish points above or below it.

The 7600/50 is also a short term support zone, seen many bounces there past 2 days. So if that breaks the coming hours and we see volume, than this Double Bottom idea is probably off the table.

My other analysis is still in full play, this is just an extra update because there is a chance that something else might be going on, so always good to be prepared.



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Current Bitcoin analysis:

7 มิ.ย. 2019

บันทึก

So the double bottom did play out eventually, but this drop is not good. In theory it can still reach the 8200ish target, but it broke a support level already.

It needs to break that 7960ish to become bullish again. For ETH that level is around 250. Also at a support there at the moment.

Problem is, if the W bottoms fails, so not even able to reach the targets, it can get very ugly. Because it shows that the market is simply to weak to even reach a small target like 8200. Usually means we can see a counter move to the other side. But the W bottom support is still holding, in theory can even reach the 7800ish, but i personally think that is already too much.

So my best guess here is, it needs to break 7950/60ish coming hour or 2, otherwise we could see a drop happen.

Also as always, we need to know it's weekend. As we saw past weekend, where the market went up 400/800 points with dropping volume (usually not possible, but it can happen during weekends). But we saw the result of that eventually.

So only sensible thing i can say now is, if we see like a small bear flag form now, as the blue line shows, it will become very likely to see a drop

7 มิ.ย. 2019

บันทึก

Now it seems to be safe again, at least can say bears are not in favor. Was actually surprised, because with the bullish sentiment, would be kind of strange to see a drop during weekends.

8 มิ.ย. 2019

บันทึก

New Bitcoin analysis: