AMD - regular bearish divergence

A 5300% gain and 3rd attempt to break the $100 mark, the above 3-day chart now prints a 6-month regular bearish divergence as seller volume increases. RSI resistance has now been effective since September 2020 and looks likely to hold throughout 2021. Time to get out.

1st target $60

2nd target $30

Is it possible price action continues to rise? For sure.

Is it probable? Unlikely. Risk / reward is next to gambling.

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่:

Buckle up -

ความคิดเห็น:

With month of January gone a new candle is printed on the monthly chart below. Bearish Engulfing following December's Gravestone DOJI. The probability strongly favours the bears at this time.

ความคิดเห็น:

Watch very carefully what happens to price action @ $75. If a candle closes under this level market structure will be broken. A significant collapse in price action will likely follow.

Currently price action is trading under the 21-day and 50-day moving averages, very bearish.

ความคิดเห็น:

The above idea is VOID should price action be @ or above $96 come the beginning of March. Cannot discount a melt-up in price action at this stage until March. If price action is @ $96 by March a rapid move to $126 will occur.

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่:

Price action must close at or around $90 today before a new 8-day candle is printed on the 8-day chart below. If not the Gravestone DOJI is suggesting a sudden drop to $80.

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่:

Current fall should find a pause around $73

ความคิดเห็น:

Now arrived at the $73 level. Market structure remains intact (higher lows) until this level is broken. A break of this level will see a rapid decline in price action.

ความคิดเห็น:

Fascinating yet not encouraging moves in price action, if you’re a bull. Current price action is akin to a stone skipping over water. Eventually the stone settles and sinks.

Market structure has been tested on four occasions, with each bounce making a lower high. A candle closing below $75 increases the probability of a remarkable collapse in price action.

How to trade? Wait for a confirmation. Look for a higher high to cancel this idea.

ความคิดเห็น:

This will be the 5th time market structure is tested. A break will result in price action making a sudden drop to $50.

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่:

Market structure broken.

Look for support around the 1st target.

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่:

A new 3-month / quarterly candle was recently printed - the evidence for a strong reversal in price action continues to grow as the bearish divergence now spreads across multiple months. Price action has remained exactly where it was this time last year. That is awful when you consider the S&P 500 is up 42% in the same period. AMD should be $130 now were it following the market trend.

Looking at the ideas currently published on tradingview in the last 1-2 months, 92% are long. Let me run something by you, 95% of market participants will make the wrong call.

On the 3-month chart below there is clear evidence volume is flowing out as price action continues to increase.

Look left, the 'red shaded' areas in stochastic RSI (circled in green) indicate the printing of a lower high as price action printed a higher just as it did in 1984.

Be safe!

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่:

*Time to be extra cautious*

You can see since the break of support price action has risen back to where this idea began. If price action confirms resistance at current levels then a ugly sell off will likely result.

To avoid this projection, price action needs to break $95-100 area in the next 10-20 days.

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่:

There is mounting evidence retail investors are being fleeced by institutional investors. I hate this.

If you’re not familiar with Wyckoff distribution there’s a link below. In summary, Mr. Wyckoff observed how smart money was using retail investors to exit a position or vice versa in accumulating a position to the determent of retail investors (like we’re seeing with BTC at the moment).

On the 1-day chart below there is considerable evidence institutions are using retail supply to unwind their positions.

There is a high probability of a dramatic sell off should price action enter the final phases. Take precautions!

Wyckoff distribution:

school.stockcha...ts.com/doku.php?id=market_...

ความคิดเห็น:

August 23rd. Put that date in your calendar.

If by this date you find price action:

<$100 - then the break of previous resistance was a fake out. Except a considerable collapse in price action.

>$100 - then the break of past resistance is confirmed. That will be amazing.

Any hints on which direction?

Look at RSI below (purple circles), resistance is about to be tested. Look left when resistance was previously confirmed.

ความคิดเห็น:

The 23rd came and went and price action remained >$100, that's amazing.

I'd not be long myself, I'm royally suspicious of price action entering a rising wedge formation.

Currently price action is accumulating. A break out of this formation will lead to price action moving to $150 and above.

ความคิดเห็น:

A run to $138 is now possible as price action breaks out of a bullish formation. This does not change the above bearish trend, it is intact. It could be price action tests the underside of past support as shown in the above chart.

ความคิดเห็น:

The 3-month chart is becoming crazy (below). Yes, when this idea was started price action was trading around 90. A rally to 150 followed. But that's nothing as impressive as the rally from 1.90 to 90.

The bearish outlook remains firm, there's no question. Price action could collapse to $30 and you'd still be in a massive win.

ความคิดเห็น:

As the year comes to a close, consider the risk on this vastly overbought stock. A rising wedge that began formation around $1.73 in late 2015.

On this 3-month chart (below) RSI is at 86 (orange line). This has occurred only twice before:

October 2020 @ $93
April 1983 @ $16.70

Price action could fall to $28 and would be still a fantastic return from 2015.

Don’t be greedy!

PS: I’ve never before seen a ‘great sell’ print on a 3-month chart!!

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่:

Investors and speculators were sent a loud and clear message with the massive rejection from the $150 area, do not ignore it.

On the 2-month chart below a considerable bearish divergence is printing. A 'incredible sell' that I never noticed before has now printed. It is very rare to see those signals on this high time frame, i.e. never. The last time I saw a Incredible sell on a high time frame was Ethereum on the monthly chart (not 2-month!) when over $4.5k, now it's down 50%.

The $30 target remains valid. It is based on the last significant correction of 1984 to the golden ratio.