Machine Learning Moving Average [BackQuant]Machine Learning Moving Average
A powerful tool combining clustering, pseudo-machine learning, and adaptive prediction, enabling traders to understand and react to price behavior across multiple market regimes (Bullish, Neutral, Bearish). This script uses a dynamic clustering approach based on percentile thresholds and calculates an adaptive moving average, ideal for forecasting price movements with enhanced confidence levels.
What is Percentile Clustering?
Percentile clustering is a method that sorts and categorizes data into distinct groups based on its statistical distribution. In this script, the clustering process relies on the percentile values of a composite feature (based on technical indicators like RSI, CCI, ATR, etc.). By identifying key thresholds (lower and upper percentiles), the script assigns each data point (price movement) to a cluster (Bullish, Neutral, or Bearish), based on its proximity to these thresholds.
This approach mimics aspects of machine learning, where we “train” the model on past price behavior to predict future movements. The key difference is that this is not true machine learning; rather, it uses data-driven statistical techniques to "cluster" the market into patterns.
Why Percentile Clustering is Useful
Clustering price data into meaningful patterns (Bullish, Neutral, Bearish) helps traders visualize how price behavior can be grouped over time.
By leveraging past price behavior and technical indicators, percentile clustering adapts dynamically to evolving market conditions.
It helps you understand whether price behavior today aligns with past bullish or bearish trends, improving market context.
Clusters can be used to predict upcoming market conditions by identifying regimes with high confidence, improving entry/exit timing.
What This Script Does
Clustering Based on Percentiles : The script uses historical price data and various technical features to compute a "composite feature" for each bar. This feature is then sorted and clustered based on predefined percentile thresholds (e.g., 10th percentile for lower, 90th percentile for upper).
Cluster-Based Prediction : Once clustered, the script uses a weighted average, cluster momentum, or regime transition model to predict future price behavior over a specified number of bars.
Dynamic Moving Average : The script calculates a machine-learning-inspired moving average (MLMA) based on the current cluster, adjusting its behavior according to the cluster regime (Bullish, Neutral, Bearish).
Adaptive Confidence Levels : Confidence in the predicted return is calculated based on the distance between the current value and the other clusters. The further it is from the next closest cluster, the higher the confidence.
Visual Cluster Mapping : The script visually highlights different clusters on the chart with distinct colors for Bullish, Neutral, and Bearish regimes, and plots the MLMA line.
Prediction Output : It projects the predicted price based on the selected method and shows both predicted price and confidence percentage for each prediction horizon.
Trend Identification : Using the clustering output, the script colors the bars based on the current cluster to reflect whether the market is trending Bullish (green), Bearish (red), or is Neutral (gray).
How Traders Use It
Predicting Price Movements : The script provides traders with an idea of where prices might go based on past market behavior. Traders can use this forecast for short-term and long-term predictions, guiding their trades.
Clustering for Regime Analysis : Traders can identify whether the market is in a Bullish, Neutral, or Bearish regime, using that information to adjust trading strategies.
Adaptive Moving Average for Trend Following : The adaptive moving average can be used as a trend-following indicator, helping traders stay in the market when it’s aligned with the current trend (Bullish or Bearish).
Entry/Exit Strategy : By understanding the current cluster and its associated trend, traders can time entries and exits with higher precision, taking advantage of favorable conditions when the confidence in the predicted price is high.
Confidence for Risk Management : The confidence level associated with the predicted returns allows traders to manage risk better. Higher confidence levels indicate stronger market conditions, which can lead to higher position sizes.
Pseudo Machine Learning Aspect
While the script does not use conventional machine learning models (e.g., neural networks or decision trees), it mimics certain aspects of machine learning in its approach. By using clustering and the dynamic adjustment of a moving average, the model learns from historical data to adjust predictions for future price behavior. The "learning" comes from how the script uses past price data (and technical indicators) to create patterns (clusters) and predict future market movements based on those patterns.
Why This Is Important for Traders
Understanding market regimes helps to adjust trading strategies in a way that adapts to current market conditions.
Forecasting price behavior provides an additional edge, enabling traders to time entries and exits based on predicted price movements.
By leveraging the clustering technique, traders can separate noise from signal, improving the reliability of trading signals.
The combination of clustering and predictive modeling in one tool reduces the complexity for traders, allowing them to focus on actionable insights rather than manual analysis.
How to Interpret the Output
Bullish (Green) Zone : When the price behavior clusters into the Bullish zone, expect upward price movement. The MLMA line will help confirm if the trend remains upward.
Bearish (Red) Zone : When the price behavior clusters into the Bearish zone, expect downward price movement. The MLMA line will assist in tracking any downward trends.
Neutral (Gray) Zone : A neutral market condition signals indecision or range-bound behavior. The MLMA line can help track any potential breakouts or trend reversals.
Predicted Price : The projected price is shown on the chart, based on the cluster's predicted behavior. This provides a useful reference for where the price might move in the near future.
Prediction Confidence : The confidence percentage helps you gauge the reliability of the predicted price. A higher percentage indicates stronger market confidence in the forecasted move.
Tips for Use
Combining with Other Indicators : Use the output of this indicator in combination with your existing strategy (e.g., RSI, MACD, or moving averages) to enhance signal accuracy.
Position Sizing with Confidence : Increase position size when the prediction confidence is high, and decrease size when it’s low, based on the confidence interval.
Regime-Based Strategy : Consider developing a multi-strategy approach where you use this tool for Bullish or Bearish regimes and a separate strategy for Neutral markets.
Optimization : Adjust the lookback period and percentile settings to optimize the clustering algorithm based on your asset’s characteristics.
Conclusion
The Machine Learning Moving Average offers a novel approach to price prediction by leveraging percentile clustering and a dynamically adapting moving average. While not a traditional machine learning model, this tool mimics the adaptive behavior of machine learning by adjusting to evolving market conditions, helping traders predict price movements and identify trends with improved confidence and accuracy.
Statistics
Intraday Perpetual Premium & Z-ScoreThis indicator measures the real-time premium of a perpetual futures contract relative to its spot market and interprets it through a statistical lens.
It helps traders detect when funding pressure is building, when leverage is being unwound, and when crowding in the futures market may precede volatility.
How it works
• Premium (%) = (Perp – Spot) ÷ Spot × 100
The script fetches both spot and perpetual prices and calculates their percentage difference each minute.
• Rolling Mean & Z-Score
Over a 4-hour look-back, it computes the average premium and standard deviation to derive a Z-Score, showing how stretched current sentiment is.
• Dynamic ±2σ Bands highlight statistically extreme premiums or discounts.
• Rate of Change (ROC) over one hour gauges the short-term directional acceleration of funding flows.
Colour & Label Interpretation
Visual cue Meaning Trading Implication
🟢 Green bars + “BULL Pressure” Premium rising faster than mean Leverage inflows → momentum strengthening
🔴 Red bars + “BEAR Pressure” Premium shrinking Leverage unwind → pull-back or consolidation
⚠️ Orange “EXTREME Premium/Discount” Crowded trade → heightened reversal risk
⚪ Grey bars Neutral Balanced conditions
Alerts
• Bull Pressure Alert → funding & premium rising (momentum building)
• Bear Pressure Alert → premium falling (deleveraging)
• Extreme Premium Alert → crowded longs; potential top
• Extreme Discount Alert → capitulation; possible bottom
Use case
Combine this indicator with your Heikin-Ashi, RSI, and MACD confluence rules:
• Enter only when your oscillators are low → curling up and Bull Pressure triggers.
• Trim or exit when Bear Pressure or Extreme Premium appears.
• Watch for Extreme Discount during flushes as an early bottoming clue.
korea time with 200 korea time
start time
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This script makes it easier to look at the charts
The time automatically displays even if you don't bother to bring the mouse by hand
Now you can see the time intuitively
Run a very happy trading session
India Vix based Strangle StrikesA clean Nifty–VIX dashboard that converts India VIX into expected daily moves, price ranges, and suggested strangle strikes. Includes VIX %, expanded 1.2× range, and smart rounded strike levels for options trading.
This script provides a professional on-chart dashboard that converts India VIX into actionable trading levels for Nifty. It calculates the VIX-based expected daily move, projected price ranges, expanded 1.2× ranges, and suggested strangle strike prices. Includes clean formatting, color-coded sections, and real-time updates.
Ideal for traders using straddles, strangles, intraday volatility models, range-bound setups, and options-based risk management.
1.2x expanded range is better success probability, may keep 20% of strangle value as stop loss.
The vix based system is intended to give approx. 70%+ success rate.
JiNFOJiNFO is a clean, data-driven overlay that displays key information about the current symbol directly on your chart — without clutter.
🧭 What it shows
Company & Symbol Info – Name, ticker, sector, industry, market cap
Timeframe Label – Current chart timeframe (auto-formatted)
ATR (14) & % Volatility – With color dots for low 🟢 / medium 🟡 / high 🔴 volatility
Moving Average Status – Indicates if price is above or below the selected MA (default 150)
RSI & RSI-SMA (14) – Compact line with live values and color dot for overbought/neutral/oversold zones
Distance from SMA (50) – Shows how far price is from the 50 MA (+/- %) and grades it A–D by distance 🟢🟠🔴
Earnings Countdown – Days remaining until the next earnings date (if available)
⚙️ Customization
Position (top/middle/bottom, left/center/right)
Text size (default Small), color, opacity (100 %)
Toggle any data row on or off
Choose compact or verbose labels
🧩 Purpose
JiNFO replaces bulky data panels with a lightweight, transparent information layer — perfect for traders who want essential fundamentals, volatility, and technical context at a glance.
Custom Horizontal Lines | Trade Symmetry📊 Custom Horizontal Lines
🔍 Overview
The Custom Horizontal Lines is a precision utility designed for traders who perform manual higher-timeframe analysis and want to preserve their marked price levels directly on the chart.
It doesn’t calculate or detect anything automatically — instead, it acts as your personal level memory, preserving your analyzed zones and reference prices throughout the session.
Ideal for traders who manually mark the High, Low, Open, Close, Mean Thresholds, and Quarter Levels of Order Blocks, Fair Value Gaps, Inversion Fair Value Gaps and Wicks before the trading day begins.
⚙️ Key Features
✅ Manual Level Entry — Input your analyzed price levels (OB, FVG, WICK,etc) directly into the indicator settings.
✅ Preserved Levels — Once entered, your lines stay visible and consistent — even after switching symbols, timeframes, or reloading the chart.
✅ Supports All Level Types — Store any kind of manually defined level: OB highs/lows, FVG boundaries, Wicks, Mean Thresholds, Quarter levels, or custom reference prices.
✅ Clean Visualization — Customize line color, style, and labels for easy visual organization.
✅ Session-Ready Workflow — Built for pre-market preparation — enter your HTF levels once, and trade around them all day.
✅ No Auto Calculations — 100% manual by design — ensuring only your analyzed levels are shown, exactly as you defined them.
💡 How to Use
Open the indicator’s settings and manually enter those price values.
The indicator will plot and preserve those exact levels on your chart.
Switch to your lower timeframe and observe how price reacts around them — without ever needing to redraw.
🎯 Why It’s Useful
Keeps your HTF levels organized and persistent across sessions.
Saves time by avoiding redrawing.
Fits perfectly into ICT / Smart Money trading workflows.
Ensures full manual control and precision over what’s displayed on your chart.
🧩 Ideal For
ICT and Smart Money traders
Institutional-style manual analysts
Traders marking Mean Thresholds, or Quarter Levels of OBs, FVGs, Wicks etc
Anyone who wants a clean, reliable way to preserve their manual analysis
Scientific Correlation Testing FrameworkScientific Correlation Testing Framework - Comprehensive Guide
Introduction to Correlation Analysis
What is Correlation?
Correlation is a statistical measure that describes the degree to which two assets move in relation to each other. Think of it like measuring how closely two dancers move together on a dance floor.
Perfect Positive Correlation (+1.0): Both dancers move in perfect sync, same direction, same speed
Perfect Negative Correlation (-1.0): Both dancers move in perfect sync but in opposite directions
Zero Correlation (0): The dancers move completely independently of each other
In financial markets, correlation helps us understand relationships between different assets, which is crucial for:
Portfolio diversification
Risk management
Pairs trading strategies
Hedging positions
Market analysis
Why This Script is Special
This script goes beyond simple correlation calculations by providing:
Two different correlation methods (Pearson and Spearman)
Statistical significance testing to ensure results are meaningful
Rolling correlation analysis to track how relationships change over time
Visual representation for easy interpretation
Comprehensive statistics table with detailed metrics
Deep Dive into the Script's Components
1. Input Parameters Explained-
Symbol Selection:
This allows you to select the second asset to compare with the chart's primary asset
Default is Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), but you can change this to any symbol
Example: If you're viewing a Bitcoin chart, you might set this to "NASDAQ:TSLA" to see if Bitcoin and Tesla are correlated
Correlation Window (60): This is the number of periods used to calculate the main correlation
Larger values (e.g., 100-500) provide more stable, long-term correlation measures
Smaller values (e.g., 10-50) are more responsive to recent price movements
60 is a good balance for most daily charts (about 3 months of trading days)
Rolling Correlation Window (20): A shorter window to detect recent changes in correlation
This helps identify when the relationship between assets is strengthening or weakening
Default of 20 is roughly one month of trading days
Return Type: This determines how price changes are calculated
Simple Returns: (Today's Price - Yesterday's Price) / Yesterday's Price
Easy to understand: "The asset went up 2% today"
Log Returns: Natural logarithm of (Today's Price / Yesterday's Price)
More mathematically elegant for statistical analysis
Better for time-additive properties (returns over multiple periods)
Less sensitive to extreme values.
Confidence Level (95%): This determines how certain we want to be about our results
95% confidence means we accept a 5% chance of being wrong (false positive)
Higher confidence (e.g., 99%) makes the test more strict
Lower confidence (e.g., 90%) makes the test more lenient
95% is the standard in most scientific research
Show Statistical Significance: When enabled, the script will test if the correlation is statistically significant or just due to random chance.
Display options control what you see on the chart:
Show Pearson/Spearman/Rolling Correlation: Toggle each correlation type on/off
Show Scatter Plot: Displays a scatter plot of returns (limited to recent points to avoid performance issues)
Show Statistical Tests: Enables the detailed statistics table
Table Text Size: Adjusts the size of text in the statistics table
2.Functions explained-
calcReturns():
This function calculates price returns based on your selected method:
Log Returns:
Formula: ln(Price_t / Price_t-1)
Example: If a stock goes from $100 to $101, the log return is ln(101/100) = ln(1.01) ≈ 0.00995 or 0.995%
Benefits: More symmetric, time-additive, and better for statistical modeling
Simple Returns:
Formula: (Price_t - Price_t-1) / Price_t-1
Example: If a stock goes from $100 to $101, the simple return is (101-100)/100 = 0.01 or 1%
Benefits: More intuitive and easier to understand
rankArray():
This function calculates the rank of each value in an array, which is used for Spearman correlation:
How ranking works:
The smallest value gets rank 1
The second smallest gets rank 2, and so on
For ties (equal values), they get the average of their ranks
Example: For values
Sorted:
Ranks: (the two 2s tie for ranks 1 and 2, so they both get 1.5)
Why this matters: Spearman correlation uses ranks instead of actual values, making it less sensitive to outliers and non-linear relationships.
pearsonCorr():
This function calculates the Pearson correlation coefficient:
Mathematical Formula:
r = (nΣxy - ΣxΣy) / √
Where x and y are the two variables, and n is the sample size
What it measures:
The strength and direction of the linear relationship between two variables
Values range from -1 (perfect negative linear relationship) to +1 (perfect positive linear relationship)
0 indicates no linear relationship
Example:
If two stocks have a Pearson correlation of 0.8, they have a strong positive linear relationship
When one stock goes up, the other tends to go up in a fairly consistent proportion
spearmanCorr():
This function calculates the Spearman rank correlation:
How it works:
Convert each value in both datasets to its rank
Calculate the Pearson correlation on the ranks instead of the original values
What it measures:
The strength and direction of the monotonic relationship between two variables
A monotonic relationship is one where as one variable increases, the other either consistently increases or decreases
It doesn't require the relationship to be linear
When to use it instead of Pearson:
When the relationship is monotonic but not linear
When there are significant outliers in the data
When the data is ordinal (ranked) rather than interval/ratio
Example:
If two stocks have a Spearman correlation of 0.7, they have a strong positive monotonic relationship
When one stock goes up, the other tends to go up, but not necessarily in a straight-line relationship
tStatistic():
This function calculates the t-statistic for correlation:
Mathematical Formula: t = r × √((n-2)/(1-r²))
Where r is the correlation coefficient and n is the sample size
What it measures:
How many standard errors the correlation is away from zero
Used to test the null hypothesis that the true correlation is zero
Interpretation:
Larger absolute t-values indicate stronger evidence against the null hypothesis
Generally, a t-value greater than 2 (in absolute terms) is considered statistically significant at the 95% confidence level
criticalT() and pValue():
These functions provide approximations for statistical significance testing:
criticalT():
Returns the critical t-value for a given degrees of freedom (df) and significance level
The critical value is the threshold that the t-statistic must exceed to be considered statistically significant
Uses approximations since Pine Script doesn't have built-in statistical distribution functions
pValue():
Estimates the p-value for a given t-statistic and degrees of freedom
The p-value is the probability of observing a correlation as strong as the one calculated, assuming the true correlation is zero
Smaller p-values indicate stronger evidence against the null hypothesis
Standard interpretation:
p < 0.01: Very strong evidence (marked with **)
p < 0.05: Strong evidence (marked with *)
p ≥ 0.05: Weak evidence, not statistically significant
stdev():
This function calculates the standard deviation of a dataset:
Mathematical Formula: σ = √(Σ(x-μ)²/(n-1))
Where x is each value, μ is the mean, and n is the sample size
What it measures:
The amount of variation or dispersion in a set of values
A low standard deviation indicates that the values tend to be close to the mean
A high standard deviation indicates that the values are spread out over a wider range
Why it matters for correlation:
Standard deviation is used in calculating the correlation coefficient
It also provides information about the volatility of each asset's returns
Comparing standard deviations helps understand the relative riskiness of the two assets.
3.Getting Price Data-
price1: The closing price of the primary asset (the chart you're viewing)
price2: The closing price of the secondary asset (the one you selected in the input parameters)
Returns are used instead of raw prices because:
Returns are typically stationary (mean and variance stay constant over time)
Returns normalize for price levels, allowing comparison between assets of different values
Returns represent what investors actually care about: percentage changes in value
4.Information Table-
Creates a table to display statistics
Only shows on the last bar to avoid performance issues
Positioned in the top right of the chart
Has 2 columns and 15 rows
Populating the Table
The script then populates the table with various statistics:
Header Row: "Metric" and "Value"
Sample Information: Sample size and return type
Pearson Correlation: Value, t-statistic, p-value, and significance
Spearman Correlation: Value, t-statistic, p-value, and significance
Rolling Correlation: Current value
Standard Deviations: For both assets
Interpretation: Text description of the correlation strength
The table uses color coding to highlight important information:
Green for significant positive results
Red for significant negative results
Yellow for borderline significance
Color-coded headers for each section
=> Practical Applications and Interpretation
How to Interpret the Results
Correlation Strength
0.0 to 0.3 (or 0.0 to -0.3): Weak or no correlation
The assets move mostly independently of each other
Good for diversification purposes
0.3 to 0.7 (or -0.3 to -0.7): Moderate correlation
The assets show some tendency to move together (or in opposite directions)
May be useful for certain trading strategies but not extremely reliable
0.7 to 1.0 (or -0.7 to -1.0): Strong correlation
The assets show a strong tendency to move together (or in opposite directions)
Can be useful for pairs trading, hedging, or as a market indicator
Statistical Significance
p < 0.01: Very strong evidence that the correlation is real
Marked with ** in the table
Very unlikely to be due to random chance
p < 0.05: Strong evidence that the correlation is real
Marked with * in the table
Unlikely to be due to random chance
p ≥ 0.05: Weak evidence that the correlation is real
Not marked in the table
Could easily be due to random chance
Rolling Correlation
The rolling correlation shows how the relationship between assets changes over time
If the rolling correlation is much different from the long-term correlation, it suggests the relationship is changing
This can indicate:
A shift in market regime
Changing fundamentals of one or both assets
Temporary market dislocations that might present trading opportunities
Trading Applications
1. Portfolio Diversification
Goal: Reduce overall portfolio risk by combining assets that don't move together
Strategy: Look for assets with low or negative correlations
Example: If you hold tech stocks, you might add some utilities or bonds that have low correlation with tech
2. Pairs Trading
Goal: Profit from the relative price movements of two correlated assets
Strategy:
Find two assets with strong historical correlation
When their prices diverge (one goes up while the other goes down)
Buy the underperforming asset and short the outperforming asset
Close the positions when they converge back to their normal relationship
Example: If Coca-Cola and Pepsi are highly correlated but Coca-Cola drops while Pepsi rises, you might buy Coca-Cola and short Pepsi
3. Hedging
Goal: Reduce risk by taking an offsetting position in a negatively correlated asset
Strategy: Find assets that tend to move in opposite directions
Example: If you hold a portfolio of stocks, you might buy some gold or government bonds that tend to rise when stocks fall
4. Market Analysis
Goal: Understand market dynamics and interrelationships
Strategy: Analyze correlations between different sectors or asset classes
Example:
If tech stocks and semiconductor stocks are highly correlated, movements in one might predict movements in the other
If the correlation between stocks and bonds changes, it might signal a shift in market expectations
5. Risk Management
Goal: Understand and manage portfolio risk
Strategy: Monitor correlations to identify when diversification benefits might be breaking down
Example: During market crises, many assets that normally have low correlations can become highly correlated (correlation convergence), reducing diversification benefits
Advanced Interpretation and Caveats
Correlation vs. Causation
Important Note: Correlation does not imply causation
Example: Ice cream sales and drowning incidents are correlated (both increase in summer), but one doesn't cause the other
Implication: Just because two assets move together doesn't mean one causes the other to move
Solution: Look for fundamental economic reasons why assets might be correlated
Non-Stationary Correlations
Problem: Correlations between assets can change over time
Causes:
Changing market conditions
Shifts in monetary policy
Structural changes in the economy
Changes in the underlying businesses
Solution: Use rolling correlations to monitor how relationships change over time
Outliers and Extreme Events
Problem: Extreme market events can distort correlation measurements
Example: During a market crash, many assets may move in the same direction regardless of their normal relationship
Solution:
Use Spearman correlation, which is less sensitive to outliers
Be cautious when interpreting correlations during extreme market conditions
Sample Size Considerations
Problem: Small sample sizes can produce unreliable correlation estimates
Rule of Thumb: Use at least 30 data points for a rough estimate, 60+ for more reliable results
Solution:
Use the default correlation length of 60 or higher
Be skeptical of correlations calculated with small samples
Timeframe Considerations
Problem: Correlations can vary across different timeframes
Example: Two assets might be positively correlated on a daily basis but negatively correlated on a weekly basis
Solution:
Test correlations on multiple timeframes
Use the timeframe that matches your trading horizon
Look-Ahead Bias
Problem: Using information that wouldn't have been available at the time of trading
Example: Calculating correlation using future data
Solution: This script avoids look-ahead bias by using only historical data
Best Practices for Using This Script
1. Appropriate Parameter Selection
Correlation Window:
For short-term trading: 20-50 periods
For medium-term analysis: 50-100 periods
For long-term analysis: 100-500 periods
Rolling Window:
Should be shorter than the main correlation window
Typically 1/3 to 1/2 of the main window
Return Type:
For most applications: Log Returns (better statistical properties)
For simplicity: Simple Returns (easier to interpret)
2. Validation and Testing
Out-of-Sample Testing:
Calculate correlations on one time period
Test if they hold in a different time period
Multiple Timeframes:
Check if correlations are consistent across different timeframes
Economic Rationale:
Ensure there's a logical reason why assets should be correlated
3. Monitoring and Maintenance
Regular Review:
Correlations can change, so review them regularly
Alerts:
Set up alerts for significant correlation changes
Documentation:
Keep notes on why certain assets are correlated and what might change that relationship
4. Integration with Other Analysis
Fundamental Analysis:
Combine correlation analysis with fundamental factors
Technical Analysis:
Use correlation analysis alongside technical indicators
Market Context:
Consider how market conditions might affect correlations
Conclusion
This Scientific Correlation Testing Framework provides a comprehensive tool for analyzing relationships between financial assets. By offering both Pearson and Spearman correlation methods, statistical significance testing, and rolling correlation analysis, it goes beyond simple correlation measures to provide deeper insights.
For beginners, this script might seem complex, but it's built on fundamental statistical concepts that become clearer with use. Start with the default settings and focus on interpreting the main correlation lines and the statistics table. As you become more comfortable, you can adjust the parameters and explore more advanced applications.
Remember that correlation analysis is just one tool in a trader's toolkit. It should be used in conjunction with other forms of analysis and with a clear understanding of its limitations. When used properly, it can provide valuable insights for portfolio construction, risk management, and pair trading strategy development.
Central Limit Theorem Reversion IndicatorDear TV community, let me introduce you to the first-ever Central Limit Theorem indicator on TradingView.
The Central Limit Theorem is used in statistics and it can be quite useful in quant trading and understanding market behaviors.
In short, the CLT states: "When you take repeated samples from any population and calculate their averages, those averages will form a normal (bell curve) distribution—no matter what the original data looks like."
In this CLT indicator, I use statistical theory to identify high-probability mean reversion opportunities in the markets. It calculates statistical confidence bands and z-scores to identify when price movements deviate significantly from their expected distribution, signaling potential reversion opportunities with quantifiable probability levels.
Mathematical Foundation
The Central Limit Theorem (CLT) says that when you average many data points together, those averages will form a predictable bell-curve pattern, even if the original data is completely random and unpredictable (which often is in the markets). This works no matter what you're measuring, and it gets more reliable as you use more data points.
Why using it for trading?
Individual price movements seem random and chaotic, but when we look at the average of many price movements, we can actually predict how they should behave statistically. This lets us spot when prices have moved "too far" from what's normal—and those extreme moves tend to snap back (mean reversion).
Key Formula:
Z = (X̄ - μ) / (σ / √n)
Where:
- X̄ = Sample mean (average return over n periods)
- μ = Population mean (long-term expected return)
- σ = Population standard deviation (volatility)
- n = Sample size
- σ/√n = Standard error of the mean
How I Apply CLT
Step 1: Calculate Returns
Measures how much price changed from one bar to the next (using logarithms for better statistical properties)
Step 2: Average Recent Returns
Takes the average of the last n returns (e.g., last 100 bars). This is your "sample mean."
Step 3: Find What's "Normal"
Looks at historical data to determine: a) What the typical average return should be (the long-term mean) and b) How volatile the market usually is (standard deviation)
Step 4: Calculate Standard Error
Determines how much sample averages naturally vary. Larger samples = smaller expected variation.
Step 5: Calculate Z-Score
Measures how unusual the current situation is.
Step 6: Draw Confidence Bands
Converts these statistical boundaries into actual price levels on your chart, showing where price is statistically expected to stay 95% and 99% of the time.
Interpretation & Usage
The Z-Score:
The z-score tells you how statistically unusual the current price deviation is:
|Z| < 1.0 → Normal behavior, no action
|Z| = 1.0 to 1.96 → Moderate deviation, watch closely
|Z| = 1.96 to 2.58 → Significant deviation (95%+), consider entry
|Z| > 2.58 → Extreme deviation (99%+), high probability setup
The Confidence Bands
- Upper Red Bands: 95% and 99% overbought zones → Expect mean reversion downward as the price is not likely to cross these lines.
- Center Gray Line: Statistical expectation (fair value)
- Lower Blue Bands: 95% and 99% oversold zones → Expect mean reversion upward
Trading Logic:
- When price exceeds the upper 95% band (z-score > +1.96), there's only a 5% probability this is random noise → Strong sell/short signal
- When price falls below the lower 95% band (z-score < -1.96), there's a 95% statistical expectation of upward reversion → Strong buy/long signal
Background Gradient
The background color provides real-time visual feedback:
- Blue shades: Oversold conditions, expect upward reversion
- Red shades: Overbought conditions, expect downward reversion
- Intensity: Darker colors indicate stronger statistical significance
Trading Strategy Examples
Hypothetically, this is how the indicator could be used:
- Long: Z-score < -1.96 (below 95% confidence band)
- Short: Z-score > +1.96 (above 95% confidence band)
- Take profit when price returns to center line (Z ≈ 0)
Input Parameters
Sample Size (n) - Default: 100
Lookback Period (m) - Default: 100
You can also create alerts based on the indicator.
Final notes:
- The indicator uses logarithmic returns for better statistical properties
- Converts statistical bands back to price space for practical use
- Adaptive volatility: Bands automatically widen in high volatility, narrow in low volatility
- No repainting: yay! All calculations use historical data only
Feedback is more than welcome!
Henri
Stablecoin Liquidity Delta (Aggregate Market Cap Flow)Hi All,
This indicator visualizes the bar-to-bar change in the aggregate market capitalization of major stablecoins, including USDT, USDC, DAI, and others. It serves as a proxy for monitoring on-chain liquidity and measuring capital inflows or outflows across the crypto market.
Stablecoins are the primary liquidity layer of the crypto economy. Their combined market capitalization acts as a mirror of the available fiat-denominated liquidity in digital markets:
🟩 An increase in the total stablecoin market capitalization indicates new issuance (capital entering the market).
🟥 A decrease reflects redemption or burning (liquidity exiting the system).
Tracking these flows helps anticipate macro-level liquidity trends that often lead overall market direction, providing context for broader price movements.
All values are derived from TradingView’s public CRYPTOCAP tickers, which represent the market capitalization of each stablecoin. While minor deviations can occur due to small price fluctuations around the $1 peg, these figures serve as a proxy for circulating supply and net issuance across the stablecoin ecosystem.
Continuation Probability (0–100)This indicator helps measure how likely the current candle trend will continue or reverse, giving a probability score between 0–100.
It combines multiple market factors trend, candle strength, volume, and volatility to create a single, intuitive signal.
Simple FloatFloat Display Indicator
A simple, clean indicator that displays the current float (shares outstanding float) for any stock directly in your indicator status line at the top left of the chart.
Features:
- Shows the float value with automatic K/M formatting for thousands and millions
- No chart clutter - value only appears in the status line, nothing plotted on the chart
- Works on any stock that has float data available
- Lightweight and efficient
Perfect for traders who want quick access to float information without switching between windows or cluttering their charts.
Note: Float data availability depends on TradingView's financial data for the specific ticker. Some tickers may not have this data available.
Risk Position Sizer (Entry=Close, Stop=Daily Low)This is for trading stocks/shares. Its main goal is to help you gauge how big or how small of a position you should add based on your account size.
Info Box⚙️ Purpose
Shows useful trade and event-related data such as:
% Distance from stop levels (D, DH)
Earnings countdown in bars
All displayed in a single floating info box (table) on the chart.
📋 Key Features
Customizable Display
Choose table position (Top Right, Bottom Center, etc.)
Choose table size (Auto, Large, Tiny, etc.)
Custom text and background colors
Metrics Shown
D: % Distance from stop (difference between close and low/high)
DH: % Distance from midpoint of the candle
Earnings Countdown: Number of bars until next earnings event
Conditional Styling
If earnings are within 3 bars, text color turns red as a warning.
Execution Conditions
Runs only on daily timeframe
Updates on last bar only (no historical clutter)
Output
Displays all selected metrics in one line, separated by “×”
e.g. → D: -2.1% × 5 × DH: 1.4%
🧩 Overall Function
Creates a clean, customizable “info box” showing trade distances and upcoming earnings countdown for quick decision-making directly on your TradingView chart.
Nqaba Goldminer StrategyThis indicator plots the New York session key timing levels used in institutional intraday models.
It automatically marks the 03:00 AM, 10:00 AM, and 2:00 PM (14:00) New York times each day:
Vertical lines show exactly when those time windows open — allowing traders to identify major global liquidity shifts between London, New York, and U.S. session overlaps.
Horizontal lines mark the opening price of the 5-minute candle that begins at each of those key times, providing precision reference levels for potential reversals, continuation setups, and intraday bias shifts.
Users can customize each line’s color, style (solid/dashed/dotted), width, and horizontal-line length.
A history toggle lets you display all past occurrences or just today’s key levels for a cleaner chart.
These reference levels form the foundation for strategies such as:
London Breakout to New York Reversal models
Opening Range / Session Open bias confirmation
Institutional volume transfer windows (London → NY → Asia)
The tool provides a simple visual structure for traders to frame intraday decision-making around recurring institutional time events.
Percentile Rank Oscillator (Price + VWMA)A statistical oscillator designed to identify potential market turning points using percentile-based price analytics and volume-weighted confirmation.
What is PRO?
Percentile Rank Oscillator measures how extreme current price behavior is relative to its own recent history. It calculates a rolling percentile rank of price midpoints and VWMA deviation (volume-weighted price drift). When price reaches historically rare levels – high or low percentiles – it may signal exhaustion and potential reversal conditions.
How it works
Takes midpoint of each candle ((H+L)/2)
Ranks the current value vs previous N bars using rolling percentile rank
Maps percentile to a normalized oscillator scale (-1..+1 or 0–100)
Optionally evaluates VWMA deviation percentile for volume-confirmed signals
Highlights extreme conditions and confluence zones
Why percentile rank?
Median-based percentiles ignore outliers and read the market statistically – not by fixed thresholds. Instead of guessing “overbought/oversold” values, the indicator adapts to current volatility and structure.
Key features
Rolling percentile rank of price action
Optional VWMA-based percentile confirmation
Adaptive, noise-robust structure
User-selectable thresholds (default 95/5)
Confluence highlighting for price + VWMA extremes
Optional smoothing (RMA)
Visual extreme zone fills for rapid signal recognition
How to use
High percentile values –> statistically extreme upward deviation (potential top)
Low percentile values –> statistically extreme downward deviation (potential bottom)
Price + VWMA confluence strengthens reversal context
Best used as part of a broader trading framework (market structure, order flow, etc.)
Tip: Look for percentile spikes at key HTF levels, after extended moves, or where liquidity sweeps occur. Strong moves into rare percentile territory may precede mean reversion.
Suggested settings
Default length: 100 bars
Thresholds: 95 / 5
Smoothing: 1–3 (optional)
Important note
This tool does not predict direction or guarantee outcomes. It provides statistical context for price extremes to help traders frame probability and timing. Always combine with sound risk management and other tools.
Multi-Mode Seasonality Map [BackQuant]Multi-Mode Seasonality Map
A fast, visual way to expose repeatable calendar patterns in returns, volatility, volume, and range across multiple granularities (Day of Week, Day of Month, Hour of Day, Week of Month). Built for idea generation, regime context, and execution timing.
What is “seasonality” in markets?
Seasonality refers to statistically repeatable patterns tied to the calendar or clock, rather than to price levels. Examples include specific weekdays tending to be stronger, certain hours showing higher realized volatility, or month-end flow boosting volumes. This tool measures those effects directly on your charted symbol.
Why seasonality matters
It’s orthogonal alpha: timing edges independent of price structure that can complement trend, mean reversion, or flow-based setups.
It frames expectations: when a session typically runs hot or cold, you size and pace risk accordingly.
It improves execution: entering during historically favorable windows, avoiding historically noisy windows.
It clarifies context: separating normal “calendar noise” from true anomaly helps avoid overreacting to routine moves.
How traders use seasonality in practice
Timing entries/exits : If Tuesday morning is historically weak for this asset, a mean-reversion buyer may wait for that drift to complete before entering.
Sizing & stops : If 13:00–15:00 shows elevated volatility, widen stops or reduce size to maintain constant risk.
Session playbooks : Build repeatable routines around the hours/days that consistently drive PnL.
Portfolio rotation : Compare seasonal edges across assets to schedule focus and deploy attention where the calendar favors you.
Why Day-of-Week (DOW) can be especially helpful
Flows cluster by weekday (ETF creations/redemptions, options hedging cadence, futures roll patterns, macro data releases), so DOW often encodes a stable micro-structure signal.
Desk behavior and liquidity provision differ by weekday, impacting realized range and slippage.
DOW is simple to operationalize: easy rules like “fade Monday afternoon chop” or “press Thursday trend extension” can be tested and enforced.
What this indicator does
Multi-mode heatmaps : Switch between Day of Week, Day of Month, Hour of Day, Week of Month .
Metric selection : Analyze Returns , Volatility ((high-low)/open), Volume (vs 20-bar average), or Range (vs 20-bar average).
Confidence intervals : Per cell, compute mean, standard deviation, and a z-based CI at your chosen confidence level.
Sample guards : Enforce a minimum sample size so thin data doesn’t mislead.
Readable map : Color palettes, value labels, sample size, and an optional legend for fast interpretation.
Scoreboard : Optional table highlights best/worst DOW and today’s seasonality with CI and a simple “edge” tag.
How it’s calculated (under the hood)
Per bar, compute the chosen metric (return, vol, volume %, or range %) over your lookback window.
Bucket that metric into the active calendar bin (e.g., Tuesday, the 15th, 10:00 hour, or Week-2 of month).
For each bin, accumulate sum , sum of squares , and count , then at render compute mean , std dev , and confidence interval .
Color scale normalizes to the observed min/max of eligible bins (those meeting the minimum sample size).
How to read the heatmap
Color : Greener/warmer typically implies higher mean value for the chosen metric; cooler implies lower.
Value label : The center number is the bin’s mean (e.g., average % return for Tuesdays).
Confidence bracket : Optional “ ” shows the CI for the mean, helping you gauge stability.
n = sample size : More samples = more reliability. Treat small-n bins with skepticism.
Suggested workflows
Pick the lens : Start with Analysis Type = Returns , Heatmap View = Day of Week , lookback ≈ 252 trading days . Note the best/worst weekdays and their CI width.
Sanity-check volatility : Switch to Volatility to see which bins carry the most realized range. Use that to plan stop width and trade pacing.
Check liquidity proxy : Flip to Volume , identify thin vs thick windows. Execute risk in thicker windows to reduce slippage.
Drill to intraday : Use Hour of Day to reveal opening bursts, lunchtime lulls, and closing ramps. Combine with your main strategy to schedule entries.
Calendar nuance : Inspect Week of Month and Day of Month for end-of-month, options-cycle, or data-release effects.
Codify rules : Translate stable edges into rules like “no fresh risk during bottom-quartile hours” or “scale entries during top-quartile hours.”
Parameter guidance
Analysis Period (Days) : 252 for a one-year view. Shorten (100–150) to emphasize the current regime; lengthen (500+) for long-memory effects.
Heatmap View : Start with DOW for robustness, then refine with Hour-of-Day for your execution window.
Confidence Level : 95% is standard; use 90% if you want wider coverage with fewer false “insufficient data” bins.
Min Sample Size : 10–20 helps filter noise. For Hour-of-Day on higher timeframes, consider lowering if your dataset is small.
Color Scheme : Choose a palette with good mid-tone contrast (e.g., Red-Green or Viridis) for quick thresholding.
Interpreting common patterns
Return-positive but low-vol bins : Favorable drift windows for passive adds or tight-stop trend continuation.
Return-flat but high-vol bins : Opportunity for mean reversion or breakout scalping, but manage risk accordingly.
High-volume bins : Better expected execution quality; schedule size here if slippage matters.
Wide CI : Edge is unstable or sample is thin; treat as exploratory until more data accumulates.
Best practices
Revalidate after regime shifts (new macro cycle, liquidity regime change, major exchange microstructure updates).
Use multiple lenses: DOW to find the day, then Hour-of-Day to refine the entry window.
Combine with your core setup signals; treat seasonality as a filter or weight, not a standalone trigger.
Test across assets/timeframes—edges are instrument-specific and may not transfer 1:1.
Limitations & notes
History-dependent: short histories or sparse intraday data reduce reliability.
Not causal: a hot Tuesday doesn’t guarantee future Tuesday strength; treat as probabilistic bias.
Aggregation bias: changing session hours or symbol migrations can distort older samples.
CI is z-approximate: good for fast triage, not a substitute for full hypothesis testing.
Quick setup
Use Returns + Day of Week + 252d to get a clean yearly map of weekday edge.
Flip to Hour of Day on intraday charts to schedule precise entries/exits.
Keep Show Values and Confidence Intervals on while you calibrate; hide later for a clean visual.
The Multi-Mode Seasonality Map helps you convert the calendar from an afterthought into a quantitative edge, surfacing when an asset tends to move, expand, or stay quiet—so you can plan, size, and execute with intent.
Market SessionsMarket Sessions (Asian, London, NY, Pacific)
Summary
This indicator plots the main global market sessions (Asian, European, American, Pacific) as boxes on your chart, complete with dynamic high/low tracking.
It's an essential tool for intraday traders to track session-based volatility patterns and visualize key support/resistance levels (like the Asian Range) that often define price action for the rest of the day.
Who it’s for
Intraday traders, scalpers, and day traders who need to visualize market hours and session-based ranges. If your strategy depends on the London open, the New York close, or the Asian range, this script will map it out for you.
What it shows
Customizable Session Boxes: Four fully configurable boxes for the Asian, European (London), American (New York), and Pacific (Sydney) sessions.
Session High & Low: The script tracks and boxes the highest high and lowest low of each session, dynamically updating as the session progresses.
Session Labels: Clear labels (e.g., "AS", "EU") mark each session, anchored to the start time.
Key Features
Powerful Timezone Control: This is the core feature.
Use Exchange Timezone (Default): Simply enter session times (e.g., 8:00 for London) relative to the exchange's timezone (e.g., "NASDAQ" or "BINANCE").
Use UTC Offset: Uncheck the box and enter a UTC offset (e.g., +3 or -5). Now, all session times you enter are relative to that specific UTC offset. This gives you full control regardless of the chart you're on.
Fully Customizable: Toggle any session on/off.
Style Control: Change the fill color, border color, transparency, border width, and line style (Solid, Dashed, Dotted) for each session individually.
Smart Labels: Labels stay anchored to the start of the session (no "sliding") and float just above the session high.
Why this helps
Track Volatility & Market Behavior: Visually identify the "personality" of each session. Some sessions might consistently produce powerful pumps or dumps, while others are prone to sideways "chop" or accumulation. This indicator helps you see these repeating patterns.
Find Key Support/Resistance Levels: The High and Low of a session (e.g., the Asian Range) often become critical support and resistance levels for the next session (e.g., London). This script makes it easy to spot these "session-to-session" S/R flips and reactions.
Aid Statistical Analysis: The script provides the core visual data for your statistical research. You can easily track how often the London session breaks the Asian high, or which session is most likely to reverse the trend, helping you build a robust trading plan.
Context is King: Instantly see which market is active, which are overlapping (like the high-volume London-NY overlap), and which have closed.
Quick setup
Go to Timezone Settings.
Decide how you want to enter times:
Easy (Default): Leave Use Exchange Timezone checked. Enter session times based on the chart's native exchange (e.g., for BTC/USDT on Binance, use UTC+0 times).
Manual (Pro): Uncheck Use Exchange Timezone. Enter your UTC Offset (e.g., +2 for Berlin). Now, enter all session times as they appear on the clock in Berlin.
Go to each session tab (Asian, European...) to enable/disable it and set the correct start/end hours and minutes.
Style the colors to match your chart theme.
Disclaimer
For educational/informational purposes only; not financial advice. Trading involves risk—manage it responsibly.
NFCI National Financial Conditions IndexChicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
This indicator plots the Chicago Fed’s National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI).
The NFCI updates weekly, and its latest value is displayed across all chart intervals.
The NFCI measures how tight or loose overall U.S. financial conditions are. It combines over 100 weekly indicators from the money, bond, and equity markets—along with credit and leverage data—into a single composite index.
The NFCI has three key subcomponents, each of which can be independently selected within the indicator:
Risk: Captures volatility, credit spreads, and overall market stress.
Credit: Tracks how easy or difficult it is to borrow across households and businesses.
Leverage: Reflects the level of debt and balance-sheet strength in the financial system.
When the NFCI rises, financial conditions are tightening — liquidity is contracting, borrowing costs are climbing, and investors tend to reduce risk.
When the NFCI falls, conditions are loosening — liquidity expands, credit flows more freely, and markets generally become more risk-seeking.
Traders often use the NFCI as a macro backdrop for risk appetite: rising values signal growing stress and defensive positioning, while falling values indicate improving liquidity and a more supportive market environment.
Rolling Correlation vs Another Symbol (SPY Default)This indicator visualizes the rolling correlation between the current chart symbol and another selected asset, helping traders understand how closely the two move together over time.
It calculates the Pearson correlation coefficient over a user-defined period (default 22 bars) and plots it as a color-coded line:
• Green line → positive correlation (move in the same direction)
• Red line → negative correlation (move in opposite directions)
• A gray dashed line marks the zero level (no correlation).
The background highlights periods of strong relationship:
• Light green when correlation > +0.7 (strong positive)
• Light red when correlation < –0.7 (strong negative)
Use this tool to quickly spot diversification opportunities, confirm hedges, or understand how assets interact during different market regimes.
Standardization (Z-score)Standardization, often referred to as Z-score normalization, is a data preprocessing technique that rescales data to have a mean of 0 and a standard deviation of 1. The resulting values, known as Z-scores, indicate how many standard deviations an individual data point is from the mean of the dataset (or a rolling sample of it).
This indicator calculates and plots the Z-score for a given input series over a specified lookback period. It is a fundamental tool for statistical analysis, outlier detection, and preparing data for certain machine learning algorithms.
## Core Concepts
* **Standardization:** The process of transforming data to fit a standard normal distribution (or more generally, to have a mean of 0 and standard deviation of 1).
* **Z-score (Standard Score):** A dimensionless quantity that represents the number of standard deviations by which a data point deviates from the mean of its sample.
The formula for a Z-score is:
`Z = (x - μ) / σ`
Where:
* `x` is the individual data point (e.g., current value of the source series).
* `μ` (mu) is the mean of the sample (calculated over the lookback period).
* `σ` (sigma) is the standard deviation of the sample (calculated over the lookback period).
* **Mean (μ):** The average value of the data points in the sample.
* **Standard Deviation (σ):** A measure of the amount of variation or dispersion of a set of values. A low standard deviation indicates that the values tend to be close to the mean, while a high standard deviation indicates that the values are spread out over a wider range.
## Common Settings and Parameters
| Parameter | Type | Default | Function | When to Adjust |
| :-------------- | :----------- | :------ | :------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Source | series float | close | The input data series (e.g., price, volume, indicator values). | Choose the series you want to standardize. |
| Lookback Period | int | 20 | The number of bars (sample size) used for calculating the mean (μ) and standard deviation (σ). Min 2. | A larger period provides more stable estimates of μ and σ but will be less responsive to recent changes. A shorter period is more reactive. `minval` is 2 because `ta.stdev` requires it. |
**Pro Tip:** Z-scores are excellent for identifying anomalies or extreme values. For instance, applying Standardization to trading volume can help quickly spot days with unusually high or low activity relative to the recent norm (e.g., Z-score > 2 or < -2).
## Calculation and Mathematical Foundation
The Z-score is calculated for each bar as follows, using a rolling window defined by the `Lookback Period`:
1. **Calculate Mean (μ):** The simple moving average (`ta.sma`) of the `Source` data over the specified `Lookback Period` is calculated. This serves as the sample mean `μ`.
`μ = ta.sma(Source, Lookback Period)`
2. **Calculate Standard Deviation (σ):** The standard deviation (`ta.stdev`) of the `Source` data over the same `Lookback Period` is calculated. This serves as the sample standard deviation `σ`.
`σ = ta.stdev(Source, Lookback Period)`
3. **Calculate Z-score:**
* If `σ > 0`: The Z-score is calculated using the formula:
`Z = (Current Source Value - μ) / σ`
* If `σ = 0`: This implies all values in the lookback window are identical (and equal to the mean). In this case, the Z-score is defined as 0, as the current source value is also equal to the mean.
* If `σ` is `na` (e.g., insufficient data in the lookback period), the Z-score is `na`.
> 🔍 **Technical Note:**
> * The `Lookback Period` must be at least 2 for `ta.stdev` to compute a valid standard deviation.
> * The Z-score calculation uses the sample mean and sample standard deviation from the rolling lookback window.
## Interpreting the Z-score
* **Magnitude and Sign:**
* A Z-score of **0** means the data point is identical to the sample mean.
* A **positive Z-score** indicates the data point is above the sample mean. For example, Z = 1 means the point is 1 standard deviation above the mean.
* A **negative Z-score** indicates the data point is below the sample mean. For example, Z = -1 means the point is 1 standard deviation below the mean.
* **Typical Range:** For data that is approximately normally distributed (bell-shaped curve):
* About 68% of Z-scores fall between -1 and +1.
* About 95% of Z-scores fall between -2 and +2.
* About 99.7% of Z-scores fall between -3 and +3.
* **Outlier Detection:** Z-scores significantly outside the -2 to +2 range, and especially outside -3 to +3, are often considered outliers or extreme values relative to the recent historical data in the lookback window.
* **Volatility Indication:** When applied to price, large absolute Z-scores can indicate moments of high volatility or significant deviation from the recent price trend.
The indicator plots horizontal lines at ±1, ±2, and ±3 standard deviations to help visualize these common thresholds.
## Common Applications
1. **Outlier Detection:** Identifying data points that are unusual or extreme compared to the rest of the sample. This is a primary use in financial markets for spotting abnormal price moves, volume spikes, etc.
2. **Comparative Analysis:** Allows for comparison of scores from different distributions that might have different means and standard deviations. For example, comparing the Z-score of returns for two different assets.
3. **Feature Scaling in Machine Learning:** Standardizing features to have a mean of 0 and standard deviation of 1 is a common preprocessing step for many machine learning algorithms (e.g., SVMs, logistic regression, neural networks) to improve performance and convergence.
4. **Creating Normalized Oscillators:** The Z-score itself can be used as a bounded (though not strictly between -1 and +1) oscillator, indicating how far the current price has deviated from its moving average in terms of standard deviations.
5. **Statistical Process Control:** Used in quality control charts to monitor if a process is within expected statistical limits.
## Limitations and Considerations
* **Assumption of Normality for Probabilistic Interpretation:** While Z-scores can always be calculated, the probabilistic interpretations (e.g., "68% of data within ±1σ") strictly apply to normally distributed data. Financial data is often not perfectly normal (e.g., it can have fat tails).
* **Sensitivity of Mean and Standard Deviation to Outliers:** The sample mean (μ) and standard deviation (σ) used in the Z-score calculation can themselves be influenced by extreme outliers within the lookback period. This can sometimes mask or exaggerate the Z-score of other points.
* **Choice of Lookback Period:** The Z-score is highly dependent on the `Lookback Period`. A short period makes it very sensitive to recent fluctuations, while a long period makes it smoother and less responsive. The appropriate period depends on the analytical goal.
* **Stationarity:** For time series data, Z-scores are calculated based on a rolling window. This implicitly assumes some level of local stationarity (i.e., the mean and standard deviation are relatively stable within the window).
Multi-Session Viewer and AnalyzerFully customizable multi-session viewer that takes session analysis to the next level. It allows you to fully customize each session to your liking. Includes a feature that highlights certain periods of time on the chart and a Time Range Marker.
It helps you analyze the instrument that you trade and pinpoint which times are more volatile than others. It also helps you choose the best time to trade your instrument and align your life schedule with the market.
NZDUSD Example:
- 3 major sessions displayed.
- Although this is NZDUSD, Sydney is not the best time to trade this pair. Volatility picks up at Tokyo open.
- I have time to trade in the evening from 18:00 to 22:00 PST. I live in a different time zone, whereas market is based on EST. How does the pair behave during the time I am available to trade based on my time zone? Time Range Marker feature allows you to see this clearly on the chart (black lines).
- I have some time in the morning to trade during New York session, but there is no way I am waking up at 05:00 PST. 06:30 PST seems doable. Blue highlighted area is good time to trade during New York session based on what Bob said. It seem like this aligns with when I am available and when I am able to trade. Volatility is also at its peak.
- I am also available to trade between London close and Tokyo open on some days of the week, but... based on what I see, green highlighted area is clearly showing that I probably don't want to waste my time trading this pair from London close and until Tokyo open. I will use this time for something else rather than be stuck in a range.
Forex Dynamic Lot Size CalculatorForex Dynamic Lot Size Calculator for Forex. Works on USD Base and USD Quote pairs. Provides real-time data based on stop-loss location. Allows you to know in real-time how the number of lots you need to purchase to match your risk %.
Number of Lots is calculated based on total risk. Total risk is calculated based on Stop-Loss + Commission + Spread Fees + Slippage measured in pips. Also includes data such as break-even pips, net take profit, margin required, buying power used, and a few others. All are real-time and anchored to the current price.
The intention of creating this indicator is to help with risk management. You know exactly how many lots you need to get this very moment to have your total risk at lets say $250, which includes commission fees, spread fees, and slippage.
To put it simply, if I was to enter the trade right now and willing to risk exactly $250, how many lots will I need to get right this second?
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- To use adjust Account Settings along with other variables.
- Stop Loss Mode can be Manual or Dynamic. If you select Dynamic, then you will have to adjust Stop Loss Level to where you can see the reference line on the screen. It is at 1.1 by default. Just enter current price and the line will appear. Adjust it by dragging it to where you want your stop loss to be.
- Take Profit Mode can also be Manual or Dynamic. I just keep my TP at Manual and use Quick Access to set Quick RR levels.
- Adjust Spreads and Slippage to your liking. I tried to have TV calculate current spread, but it seem like it doesn't have access to real-life data for me like MT5 does. I just use average instead. Both are optional, depending on your broker and type of account you use.
- Pip Value for the current pair, Return on Margin, and Break-even line can be turned on and off, based on your needs. I just get the Break-even value in pips from the pannel and use that as reference where I need to relocate my stop loss to break-ever (commission + spreds + slippage).
- Panel is fully customizable based on your liking. Important fields are highlighted along with reference lines.
Risk Leverage ToolRisk Leverage Tool – Calculate Position Size and Required Leverage
This script automatically calculates the optimal position size and the leverage needed based on the amount of capital you are willing to risk on a trade. It is designed for traders who want precise control over their risk management.
The script determines the distance between the entry and stop-loss price, calculates the maximum position size that fits within the defined risk, and derives the notional value of the trade. Based on the available margin, it then calculates the required leverage. It also displays the percentage of margin at risk if the stop-loss is hit.
All results are displayed in a table in the top-right corner of the chart. Additionally, a label appears at the entry price level showing the same data.
To use the tool, simply input your planned entry price, stop-loss price, the maximum risk amount in dollars, and the available margin in the settings menu. The script will update all values automatically in real time.
This tool works with any market where capital risk is expressed in absolute terms (such as USD), including futures, CFDs, and leveraged spot positions. For inverse contracts or percentage-based stops, manual adjustment is required.
