Failed Breakdown Detection'Failed Breakdowns' are a popular set up for long entries.
In short, the set up requires:
1) A significant low is made ('initial low')
2) Initial low is undercut with a new low
3) Price action then 'reclaims' the initial low by moving +8-10 points from the initial low
This script aims at detecting such set ups. It was coded with the ES Futures 15 minute chart in mind but may be useful on other instruments and time frames.
Business Logic:
1) Uses pivot lows to detect 'significant' initial lows
2) Uses amplitude threshold to detect a new low beneath the initial low; used /u/ben_zen script for this
3) Looks for a valid reclaim - a green candle that occurs within 10 bars of the new low
4) Price must reclaim at least 8 points for the set up to be valid
5) If a signal is detected, the initial low value (pivot low) is stored in array that prevents duplicate signals from being generated.
6) FBD Signal is plotted on the chart with "X"
7) Pivot low detection is plotted on the chart with "P" and a label
8) New lows are plotted on the chart with a blue triangle
Notes:
User input
- My preference is to use the defaults as is, but as always feel free to experiment
- Can modify pivot length but in my experience 10/10 work best for pivot lows
- New low detection - 55 bars and 0.05 amplitude work well based on visual checks of signals
- Can modify the number of points needed to reclaim a low, and the # of bars limit under which this must occur.
Alerts:
- Alerts are available for detection of new lows and detection of failed breakdowns
- Alerts are also available for these signals but only during 7:30PM-4PM EST - 'prime time' US trading hours
Limitations:
- Current version of the script only compares new lows to the most recent pivot low, does not look at anything prior to that
- Best used as a discretionary signal
Visit /u/ben_zen's Profile:
www.tradingview.com
Profile Link www.tradingview.com
ค้นหาในสคริปต์สำหรับ "美国夏威夷+prime公司"
1+KillZoneLiteRemove plot line for a better view. I've made this to work on "US30 Global Prime" probably works on other pairs the codes left open to mod.
This Indicator shows 3 sessions to help you focus on timing. This will help you with learning pattern recognition aswell.
1. Gray zone is spreads. The gray zone will show up 30 min before spreads open up.
2. Blue is new york
3. Red is london reversal zone.
4. Look between the zones and also how price reacts within the zones and at what time.
5. This indicator also prints the sessions 1 day in advance to help with back testing aswell.
[MT Trader] Backtest template w/ Supertrend Strategy---EN: In this strategy template you will find some functions already pre-programmed to be used in your strategies to speed up the programming process, among them we can highlight the default stop loss and take profit functions, which will help to set easily and quickly, defining the price range in which we want to prevent large losses or protect our profits from unexpected market movements.
🔴 Stop Loss: Among the functions of the stop loss are the 4 most known, first we have the fixed percentage range (%) and price ($), when the price reaches this fixed price will limit the losses of the operation avoiding larger losses, then we have the average true range (ATR), a moving average of true range and X period that can give us good reference points to place our stop loss, finally the last point higher or lower is the most used by traders to place their stop loss.
In addition, the price range between the entry and stop loss can be converted into a trailing stop loss.
🟢 Take Profit: We have 3 options for take profit, just like stop loss, the fixed range of percentage(%) and price($), are available, in addition to this we have the 1:# ratio option, which multiplies by X number the range between the entry and stop loss to use it as take profit, perfect for strategies that use ATR or last high/low point for their strategy.
📈 Heikin Ashi Entrys: The heikin ashi entries are trades that are calculated based on heikin ashi candles but their price is executed in Japanese candles, thus avoiding the false results that occur in heikin candlestick charts, making that in certain cases better results are obtained in the strategies that are executed with this option compared to Japanese candlesticks.
📊 Dashboard: A more visual and organized way to see the results and data needed for our strategy.
Feel free to use this template to program your own strategies, if you find bugs or want to request a new feature let me know in the comments or through my telegram @hvert_mt
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---ES: En esta plantilla de estrategia podrás encontrar algunas funciones ya pre-programadas para ser usadas en tus estrategias para acelerar procesos de programación, entre ellas podemos destacar las funciones por defecto de stop loss y take profit, que ayudaran a establecer de manera fácil y rápida, definiendo los rango de precio en los que queremos prevenirnos de perdidas grandes o proteger nuestras ganancias de movimientos inesperados del mercado.
🔴 Stop Loss: Entre las funciones del stop loss están las 4 más conocidas, en primer lugar tenemos el rango de porcentaje fijo(%) y el precio($), cuando el precio alcance este precio fijo se limitaran las perdidas de la operación evitando perdidas mas grandes, después tenemos el promedio de rango verdadero(ATR), una media móvil del rango verdadero y X periodo que nos puede dar buenos puntos de referencia para colocar nuestro stop loss, por ultimo el ultimo punto mas alto o mas bajo es de los mas usados por los traders para colocar su stop loss.
Adicional a esto, el rango de precio entre la entrada y el stop loss se puede convertir en un trailing stop loss.
🟢 Take Profit: Tenemos 3 opciones para take profit, al igual que en el stop loss, el rango fijo de porcentaje(%) y precio($) se encuentran disponibles, adicional a esto tenemos la opción de ratio 1:#, que multiplica por X numero el rango entre la entrada y el stop loss para usarlo como take profit, perfecto para estrategias que usen ATR o ultimo punto alto/bajo.
📈 Entradas Heikin Ashi: Las entradas Heikin Ashi son trades que son calculados en base a las velas Aeikin Ashi pero su precio esta ejecutado a velas japonesas, evitando así los falsos resultados que se producen en graficas de velas Heikin, esto haciendo que en ciertos casos se obtengan mejores resultados en las estrategias que son ejecutadas con esta opción en comparación con las velas japonesas.
📊 Panel de Control: Una manera mas visual y organizada de ver los resultados y datos necesarios de nuestra estrategia.
Siéntete libre de usar esta plantilla para programar tus propias estrategias, si encuentras errores o quieres solicitar una nueva función házmelo saber en los comentarios o a través de mi Telegram: @hvert_mt
All-in-one CPR indicator Introduction and Acknowledgement:
The script is basically a mashup script and provides a combined functionality of various indicators. I'll explain the usefulness and the optimal usage of the script after giving the credits where it is due. A CPR indicator for visually identifying the trend along with the strength of the trend is NOT available in the public library of TradingView. Hence, the need of this indicator.
The credit of creating the original indicators remain unknown to me but I would like to acknowledge the authors whose formulae and codes I have used for creating this mashup indicator.
- Frank Ochoa
- Guruprasad Meduri
- Rafael Zioni
- Stoked Stocks
- Pine team for default indicators
The prime focus of the script is identifying and simplifying the 2 main aspects of a trend:
1. Direction / Underlying trend
2. Strength of the trend
Flaws in traditional CPR:
Some may see this as a flaw, some may not. So take my opinion with a grain of salt. In general, the traditional CPR indicator is used to plot just support and resistance levels, and the trend identification is purely discretionary. In addition to this, there is no way to assess the strength of the move without using a dedicated volumed based indicator. This causes amateur traders to take counter trades to the market direction.
What is the need of this hybrid indicator?
A CPR indicator that also aids in visually identifying the trend and the strength of the trend with respect to the price action in NOT available in the public library of TradingView. The traditional CPR can be used to assess the rough direction of the market but if it combined with the Hull ribbon, the probability of identifying the trend increases manifold. Hence, I decided to create this mashup indicator.
In addition to the basic CPR pivots, the script provides the functionality of the following indicators:
1. HMA based trend ribbons with auto buy/sell signals
2. Volatility based bands - Bollinger bands, Keltner channel, Donchian channel, envelope.
3. Coloured volume candles to determine the strength of the trend
4. CPR with daily, weekly, and monthly levels
5. Previous day high/low
6. Tomorrow CPR
7. 3 Simple moving averages
8. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
Correct usage of the indicator:
The optimal usage of the indicators consists of mainly 2 parts:
1. Identification of the trend using the combination of CPR and Hull ribbon
2. Determining the strength of the trend
How to identify the trend?
In general, when the price is above CPR it is considered a bullish trend. Also, when the price is above the Hull ribbon, it is considered bullish. Reverse is true for a bearish trend. Combining the traditional CPR logic with the Hull trend ribbon, we can conclude that:
1. Bullish trend = Price above CPR and above the Hull ribbon
2. Bearish trend = Price below CPR and below the Hull ribbon
If the Hull ribbon is showing a zig-zag move, the trend will be sideways. Also, the time frame of the Hull ribbon can be defined as per the need of the user.
Exhibit: Identification of a bullish trend
Exhibit: Identification of a bullish trend with a contra move (pullback)
Exhibit: Identification of a bearish trend
Exhibit: Identification of a bearish trend with a contra move (pullback)
How to determine the strength of the trend?
1. Strong trend = The dark coloured candles represent volume more than 150% of the look back period. For instance
2. Moderate trend = The bright coloured candles represent volume between 50-150%.
3. Neutral trend = The Grey coloured candles represent a weak trend where the volume is less than 50%.
Exhibit: Identification of a strong bearish trend along with the trend direction
Exhibit: Identification of a strong bullish trend using only coloured candles
All the other indicators including the SMA, VWAP, Bollinger bands, Keltner channels, etc. can be used as per the taste of the trader.
Thanks for reading! I hope you find this indicator useful.
Happy learning. Cheers!
Rajat Kumar Singh (@johntradingwick)
Community Manager (India), TradingView
Bitcoin Golden Pi CyclesTops are signaled by the fast top MA crossing above the slow top MA, and bottoms are signaled by the slow bottom MA crossing above the fast bottom MA. Alerts can be set on top and bottom prints. Does not repaint.
Similar to the work of Philip Swift regarding the Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top, I’ve recently come across a similar mathematically curious ratio that corresponds to Bitcoin cycle bottoms. This ratio was extracted from skirmantas’ Bitcoin Super Cycle indicator . Cycle bottoms are signaled when the 700D SMA crosses above the 137D SMA (because this indicator is closed source, these moving averages were reverse-engineered). Such crossings have historically coincided with the January 2015 and December 2018 bottoms. Also, although yet to be confirmed as a bottom, a cross occurred June 19, 2022 (two days prior to this article)
The original pi cycle uses the doubled 350D SMA and the 111D SMA . As pointed out this gives the original pi cycle top ratio:
350/111 = 3.1532 ≈ π
Also, as noted by Swift, 111 is the best integer for dividing 350 to approximate π. What is mathematically interesting about skirmanta’s ratio?
700/138 = 5.1095
After playing around with this for a while I realized that 5.11 is very close to the product of the two most numerologically significant geometrical constants, π and the golden ratio, ϕ:
πϕ = 5.0832
However, 138 turns out to be the best integer denominator to approximate πϕ:
700/138 = 5.0725 ≈ πϕ
This is what I’ve dubbed the Bitcoin Golden Pi Bottom Ratio.
In the spirit of numerology I must mention that 137 does have some things going for it: it’s a prime number and is very famously almost exactly the reciprocal of the fine structure constant (α is within 0.03% of 1/137).
Now why 350 and 700 and not say 360 and 720? After all, 360 is obviously much more numerologically significant than 350, which is proven by the fact that 360 has its own wikipedia page, and 350 does not! Using 360/115 and 720/142, which are also approximations of π and πϕ respectively, this also calls cycle tops and bottoms.
There are infinitely many such ratios that could work to approximate π and πϕ (although there are a finite number whose daily moving averages are defined). Further analysis is needed to find the range(s) of numerators (the numerator determines the denominator when maintaining the ratio) that correctly produce bottom and top signals.
MadriEsta estrategia fue creada por mi, basándose en el indicador bollinger bands+rsi y una ema , forexstrategiesresources me lo pasó a codigo y despues fue publicado en ChartArt y en la pagina web de forexstrategiesresources.
Ahora este script lo he modificado para optimizarlo para BTC /USDT en la temporalidad de 1 hora, os invito a ir cambiando temporalidades y valores para conseguir la mayor rentabilidad y, al igual que yo lo publico en codigo abierto os invito a que pongáis vuestros ajustes en los comentarios.
Los ajustes que se pueden cambiar para buscar mayor rentabilidad son en primer lugar "lo que se puede cambiar desde el mismo grafico" los valores "A" y "B".
Además, en el codigo el valor "RSIoverSold" y el "RSIoverBought" por mi experencia con menos de 30 no suele ir bien y con mas de 70 tampoco, el rango adecuado es de 29 a 49, incluidos.
Yo no he trasteado mucho pero también os invito a cambiar la fuente de entrada de "close" a "high", "open", "low"...
Recomiendo para la configuración ACTUAL mismo símbolo, mismos valores operar las señales Short cuando el precio este por debajo de la EMA de 900 y operar las Long cuando este por encima.
En otros símbolos la cosa cambia, hay que adaptarlo a cada cosa.
PSv5 Color Magic and Chart Theme SimulatorKEEP YOUR COINS FOLKS! I DON'T NEED THEM, DON'T WANT THEM. Many other talented authors on TV deserve them.
INTRODUCTION:
This is my "PSv5 Color Magic and Chart Theme Simulator" displayed using Pine Script version 5.0. The purpose of this PSv5 colorcator is to show vivid colors that are most suitable in my opinion for modifying or developing Pine scripts. Whether you are new to Pine or an experienced Pine poet, this should aid you in developing indicators with stunning color from the provided color list that is easily copied and pasted into any novel script you should possess. Whichever colors you choose, and how, is up to your imagination's capacity.
COMMENTARY:
I have a thesis. Pine essentially is a gigantor calculator with a lot of programmable bells and whistles to perform intense analytics. Zillions of numbers per day are blended up into another cornucopia of numbers to analyze. The thing is, ALL of those numbers are moot unless we can informatively portray them in various colorized forms with unique methods to point out significant numeric events. By graphically displaying them with specific modes of operation, only then do these numbers truly make any sense to us and become quantitatively beneficial.
I have to admit... I hate numbers. I never really liked them, even before I knew what an ema() was. Some days I almost can't stand them, and on occasion I feel they deserve to be flushed down the toilet at times. However, I'm a stickler for a proper gauge of measurements. Numbers are a mental burden, but they do have "purpose and meaning". That's where COLOR comes in! By applying color in specific ways in varying dynamic forms, we can generate smarter visual aids from these numerics. Numbers can be "transformed" into something colorful it wasn't before, into a tool, like a hammer. But we don't need a hammer, we need an impressive jack hammer for BIG problem solving that we could never achieve in the not to distant past.
As time goes on, we analytically measure more, and more, and more each year. It's necessary to our continual evolution. That's one significant difference between us and cave men, and the pertinent reason why we are quickly evolving as a species, while animals haven't. Humankind is gifted to enumerate very well AND blessed to see in color. We use it for innumerable things in the technological present for purpose and pleasure. Day in and day out, we take color for granted, because it's every where we can look. The fact is, color is the most important apparatus in humankind's existence EVER. We wouldn't have survived this far without it.
By utilizing color to it's grand potential, greater advancements can be attained while simultaneously being enjoyed visually. Once color is transformed from it's numeric origins into applicable tools, we can enjoy the style, elegance, and QUALITATIVE nature of the indication that can be forged. Quantities can't reveal all. Color on the other hand has a handy "quality" factor to it, often revealing things we can't ordinarily recognize. When high quality tools provide us with obtained goals, that's when we will realize how magical color truly is, always has been, and shall always be.
The future emerging economies and future financial vessels of people around the globe are going to be dependent on the secured construction of intelligent applications with a rock solid color foundation, not just math alone. I have no doubt about that. I can envision that with my eyes closed. To make an informed choice, it should be charted or graphed somehow prior to a final executive decision to trade. Going back to abysmal black and white with double decimal points placed next to cartoons within extinction doomed newspapers is not a viable option any more.
OBSERVATIONS AND UTILITY:
One thing you will notice is the code is very dense. Looks almost hideous right? Well, the variable naming is lengthy, but it's purpose is to be self explanatory, even for those who don't know how to program, YET. I'm simply not a notation enthusiast. My main intention was to provide clearly identifiable variables from their origin of assignment to their intended destination of use, clearly visible for anyone visiting. The empowerment of well versed words that are easier to understand, is a close rival to the prominent influence color has.
Secondly, I'm displaying hline() and label.new() as prime candidates to exemplify by demonstration how the "Power of Color" can be embraced with the "Power of Pine". Color in Pine has been extensively upgraded to serve novel purposes to accomplish next generation indicators that do and WILL come to exist. New functions included with PSv5 are color.rgb(), color.from_gradient(), color.r(), color.g(), color.b(), and color.t() to accompany color.new() in our mutual TV adventures. Keep in mind, the extreme agility of color also extends to line.new(), the "entirely new" linefill.new(), table.new(), bgcolor() and every other function that may utilize color.
There's a wide range of adjustability in Settings to make selections to see how they perform on different backgrounds, with their size and form. As you curiously toy with those, you're going to notice how some jump out like laser beams while others don't. Things that aren't visually appealing, still have very viable purposes, even if they don't stand out in the crowd. Often, that's preferable. The important thing is that when pertinent information relative to indication is crucial, you can program it with distinction from an assortment of a potential 1.67 million colors that can be created in Pine. "These" are my chosen favorite few, and I hope you adopt them.
PURPOSES:
For those of you who are new to Pine Script, this also may help you understand color hex/rgb and how it is utilized in Pine in a most effective manner. The most skilled of programmers can garner perks as well. There is countless examples of code diversity present here that are applicable in other scripts with adequate mutation. Any member has the freedom use any of this code in this script any way they see fit. It's specifically intended for all. There is absolutely no need for accreditation for any of this code reuse ever, in the present case. Don't worry about, I'm not.
The color_tostring() will be most valuable in troubleshooting color when using color.rgb() and becoming adept with it. I'm not going to be able to use color.rgb() without it. Chameleon indicators of the polychromatic variety are most likely going to be fine tuned with color_tostring() divulging it's results to label.new() or even table.new() maybe. One the best virtues of this script in chart, is when you hover over the generated labels, there's a hidden gift for those who truly wish to learn the intricate mechanics of diverse color in Pine. Settings has informative tooltips too.
AFTERTHOUGHTS:
Colors are most vibrant on the "Black Chart" which is the default, but it doesn't currently exist as a chart theme. With the extreme luminous intensity of LCDs in millicandela( mcd ), you may notice "Light" charts may saturate the colors making charts challenging to analyze. Because of this, I personally use "Dark Charts" and design my indicators specifically for these. I hope this provides inspiration for the future developers who are contemplating the creation of next generation indicators and how color may enhance their usefulness.
When available time provides itself, I will consider your inquiries, thoughts, and concepts presented below in the comments section, should you have any questions or comments regarding this indicator. When my indicators achieve more prevalent use by TV members , I may implement more ideas when they present themselves as worthy additions. Have a profitable future everyone!
Monte Carlo Range Forecast [DW]This is an experimental study designed to forecast the range of price movement from a specified starting point using a Monte Carlo simulation.
Monte Carlo experiments are a broad class of computational algorithms that utilize random sampling to derive real world numerical results.
These types of algorithms have a number of applications in numerous fields of study including physics, engineering, behavioral sciences, climate forecasting, computer graphics, gaming AI, mathematics, and finance.
Although the applications vary, there is a typical process behind the majority of Monte Carlo methods:
-> First, a distribution of possible inputs is defined.
-> Next, values are generated randomly from the distribution.
-> The values are then fed through some form of deterministic algorithm.
-> And lastly, the results are aggregated over some number of iterations.
In this study, the Monte Carlo process used generates a distribution of aggregate pseudorandom linear price returns summed over a user defined period, then plots standard deviations of the outcomes from the mean outcome generate forecast regions.
The pseudorandom process used in this script relies on a modified Wichmann-Hill pseudorandom number generator (PRNG) algorithm.
Wichmann-Hill is a hybrid generator that uses three linear congruential generators (LCGs) with different prime moduli.
Each LCG within the generator produces an independent, uniformly distributed number between 0 and 1.
The three generated values are then summed and modulo 1 is taken to deliver the final uniformly distributed output.
Because of its long cycle length, Wichmann-Hill is a fantastic generator to use on TV since it's extremely unlikely that you'll ever see a cycle repeat.
The resulting pseudorandom output from this generator has a minimum repetition cycle length of 6,953,607,871,644.
Fun fact: Wichmann-Hill is a widely used PRNG in various software applications. For example, Excel 2003 and later uses this algorithm in its RAND function, and it was the default generator in Python up to v2.2.
The generation algorithm in this script takes the Wichmann-Hill algorithm, and uses a multi-stage transformation process to generate the results.
First, a parent seed is selected. This can either be a fixed value, or a dynamic value.
The dynamic parent value is produced by taking advantage of Pine's timenow variable behavior. It produces a variable parent seed by using a frozen ratio of timenow/time.
Because timenow always reflects the current real time when frozen and the time variable reflects the chart's beginning time when frozen, the ratio of these values produces a new number every time the cache updates.
After a parent seed is selected, its value is then fed through a uniformly distributed seed array generator, which generates multiple arrays of pseudorandom "children" seeds.
The seeds produced in this step are then fed through the main generators to produce arrays of pseudorandom simulated outcomes, and a pseudorandom series to compare with the real series.
The main generators within this script are designed to (at least somewhat) model the stochastic nature of financial time series data.
The first step in this process is to transform the uniform outputs of the Wichmann-Hill into outputs that are normally distributed.
In this script, the transformation is done using an estimate of the normal distribution quantile function.
Quantile functions, otherwise known as percent-point or inverse cumulative distribution functions, specify the value of a random variable such that the probability of the variable being within the value's boundary equals the input probability.
The quantile equation for a normal probability distribution is μ + σ(√2)erf^-1(2(p - 0.5)) where μ is the mean of the distribution, σ is the standard deviation, erf^-1 is the inverse Gauss error function, and p is the probability.
Because erf^-1() does not have a simple, closed form interpretation, it must be approximated.
To keep things lightweight in this approximation, I used a truncated Maclaurin Series expansion for this function with precomputed coefficients and rolled out operations to avoid nested looping.
This method provides a decent approximation of the error function without completely breaking floating point limits or sucking up runtime memory.
Note that there are plenty of more robust techniques to approximate this function, but their memory needs very. I chose this method specifically because of runtime favorability.
To generate a pseudorandom approximately normally distributed variable, the uniformly distributed variable from the Wichmann-Hill algorithm is used as the input probability for the quantile estimator.
Now from here, we get a pretty decent output that could be used itself in the simulation process. Many Monte Carlo simulations and random price generators utilize a normal variable.
However, if you compare the outputs of this normal variable with the actual returns of the real time series, you'll find that the variability in shocks (random changes) doesn't quite behave like it does in real data.
This is because most real financial time series data is more complex. Its distribution may be approximately normal at times, but the variability of its distribution changes over time due to various underlying factors.
In light of this, I believe that returns behave more like a convoluted product distribution rather than just a raw normal.
So the next step to get our procedurally generated returns to more closely emulate the behavior of real returns is to introduce more complexity into our model.
Through experimentation, I've found that a return series more closely emulating real returns can be generated in a three step process:
-> First, generate multiple independent, normally distributed variables simultaneously.
-> Next, apply pseudorandom weighting to each variable ranging from -1 to 1, or some limits within those bounds. This modulates each series to provide more variability in the shocks by producing product distributions.
-> Lastly, add the results together to generate the final pseudorandom output with a convoluted distribution. This adds variable amounts of constructive and destructive interference to produce a more "natural" looking output.
In this script, I use three independent normally distributed variables multiplied by uniform product distributed variables.
The first variable is generated by multiplying a normal variable by one uniformly distributed variable. This produces a bit more tailedness (kurtosis) than a normal distribution, but nothing too extreme.
The second variable is generated by multiplying a normal variable by two uniformly distributed variables. This produces moderately greater tails in the distribution.
The third variable is generated by multiplying a normal variable by three uniformly distributed variables. This produces a distribution with heavier tails.
For additional control of the output distributions, the uniform product distributions are given optional limits.
These limits control the boundaries for the absolute value of the uniform product variables, which affects the tails. In other words, they limit the weighting applied to the normally distributed variables in this transformation.
All three sets are then multiplied by user defined amplitude factors to adjust presence, then added together to produce our final pseudorandom return series with a convoluted product distribution.
Once we have the final, more "natural" looking pseudorandom series, the values are recursively summed over the forecast period to generate a simulated result.
This process of generation, weighting, addition, and summation is repeated over the user defined number of simulations with different seeds generated from the parent to produce our array of initial simulated outcomes.
After the initial simulation array is generated, the max, min, mean and standard deviation of this array are calculated, and the values are stored in holding arrays on each iteration to be called upon later.
Reference difference series and price values are also stored in holding arrays to be used in our comparison plots.
In this script, I use a linear model with simple returns rather than compounding log returns to generate the output.
The reason for this is that in generating outputs this way, we're able to run our simulations recursively from the beginning of the chart, then apply scaling and anchoring post-process.
This allows a greater conservation of runtime memory than the alternative, making it more suitable for doing longer forecasts with heavier amounts of simulations in TV's runtime environment.
From our starting time, the previous bar's price, volatility, and optional drift (expected return) are factored into our holding arrays to generate the final forecast parameters.
After these parameters are computed, the range forecast is produced.
The basis value for the ranges is the mean outcome of the simulations that were run.
Then, quarter standard deviations of the simulated outcomes are added to and subtracted from the basis up to 3σ to generate the forecast ranges.
All of these values are plotted and colorized based on their theoretical probability density. The most likely areas are the warmest colors, and least likely areas are the coolest colors.
An information panel is also displayed at the starting time which shows the starting time and price, forecast type, parent seed value, simulations run, forecast bars, total drift, mean, standard deviation, max outcome, min outcome, and bars remaining.
The interesting thing about simulated outcomes is that although the probability distribution of each simulation is not normal, the distribution of different outcomes converges to a normal one with enough steps.
In light of this, the probability density of outcomes is highest near the initial value + total drift, and decreases the further away from this point you go.
This makes logical sense since the central path is the easiest one to travel.
Given the ever changing state of markets, I find this tool to be best suited for shorter term forecasts.
However, if the movements of price are expected to remain relatively stable, longer term forecasts may be equally as valid.
There are many possible ways for users to apply this tool to their analysis setups. For example, the forecast ranges may be used as a guide to help users set risk targets.
Or, the generated levels could be used in conjunction with other indicators for meaningful confluence signals.
More advanced users could even extrapolate the functions used within this script for various purposes, such as generating pseudorandom data to test systems on, perform integration and approximations, etc.
These are just a few examples of potential uses of this script. How you choose to use it to benefit your trading, analysis, and coding is entirely up to you.
If nothing else, I think this is a pretty neat script simply for the novelty of it.
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How To Use:
When you first add the script to your chart, you will be prompted to confirm the starting date and time, number of bars to forecast, number of simulations to run, and whether to include drift assumption.
You will also be prompted to confirm the forecast type. There are two types to choose from:
-> End Result - This uses the values from the end of the simulation throughout the forecast interval.
-> Developing - This uses the values that develop from bar to bar, providing a real-time outlook.
You can always update these settings after confirmation as well.
Once these inputs are confirmed, the script will boot up and automatically generate the forecast in a separate pane.
Note that if there is no bar of data at the time you wish to start the forecast, the script will automatically detect use the next available bar after the specified start time.
From here, you can now control the rest of the settings.
The "Seeding Settings" section controls the initial seed value used to generate the children that produce the simulations.
In this section, you can control whether the seed is a fixed value, or a dynamic one.
Since selecting the dynamic parent option will change the seed value every time you change the settings or refresh your chart, there is a "Regenerate" input built into the script.
This input is a dummy input that isn't connected to any of the calculations. The purpose of this input is to force an update of the dynamic parent without affecting the generator or forecast settings.
Note that because we're running a limited number of simulations, different parent seeds will typically yield slightly different forecast ranges.
When using a small number of simulations, you will likely see a higher amount of variance between differently seeded results because smaller numbers of sampled simulations yield a heavier bias.
The more simulations you run, the smaller this variance will become since the outcomes become more convergent toward the same distribution, so the differences between differently seeded forecasts will become more marginal.
When using a dynamic parent, pay attention to the dispersion of ranges.
When you find a set of ranges that is dispersed how you like with your configuration, set your fixed parent value to the parent seed that shows in the info panel.
This will allow you to replicate that dispersion behavior again in the future.
An important thing to note when settings alerts on the plotted levels, or using them as components for signals in other scripts, is to decide on a fixed value for your parent seed to avoid minor repainting due to seed changes.
When the parent seed is fixed, no repainting occurs.
The "Amplitude Settings" section controls the amplitude coefficients for the three differently tailed generators.
These amplitude factors will change the difference series output for each simulation by controlling how aggressively each series moves.
When "Adjust Amplitude Coefficients" is disabled, all three coefficients are set to 1.
Note that if you expect volatility to significantly diverge from its historical values over the forecast interval, try experimenting with these factors to match your anticipation.
The "Weighting Settings" section controls the weighting boundaries for the three generators.
These weighting limits affect how tailed the distributions in each generator are, which in turn affects the final series outputs.
The maximum absolute value range for the weights is . When "Limit Generator Weights" is disabled, this is the range that is automatically used.
The last set of inputs is the "Display Settings", where you can control the visual outputs.
From here, you can select to display either "Forecast" or "Difference Comparison" via the "Output Display Type" dropdown tab.
"Forecast" is the type displayed by default. This plots the end result or developing forecast ranges.
There is an option with this display type to show the developing extremes of the simulations. This option is enabled by default.
There's also an option with this display type to show one of the simulated price series from the set alongside actual prices.
This allows you to visually compare simulated prices alongside the real prices.
"Difference Comparison" allows you to visually compare a synthetic difference series from the set alongside the actual difference series.
This display method is primarily useful for visually tuning the amplitude and weighting settings of the generators.
There are also info panel settings on the bottom, which allow you to control size, colors, and date format for the panel.
It's all pretty simple to use once you get the hang of it. So play around with the settings and see what kinds of forecasts you can generate!
----------
ADDITIONAL NOTES & DISCLAIMERS
Although I've done a number of things within this script to keep runtime demands as low as possible, the fact remains that this script is fairly computationally heavy.
Because of this, you may get random timeouts when using this script.
This could be due to either random drops in available runtime on the server, using too many simulations, or running the simulations over too many bars.
If it's just a random drop in runtime on the server, hide and unhide the script, re-add it to the chart, or simply refresh the page.
If the timeout persists after trying this, then you'll need to adjust your settings to a less demanding configuration.
Please note that no specific claims are being made in regards to this script's predictive accuracy.
It must be understood that this model is based on randomized price generation with assumed constant drift and dispersion from historical data before the starting point.
Models like these not consider the real world factors that may influence price movement (economic changes, seasonality, macro-trends, instrument hype, etc.), nor the changes in sample distribution that may occur.
In light of this, it's perfectly possible for price data to exceed even the most extreme simulated outcomes.
The future is uncertain, and becomes increasingly uncertain with each passing point in time.
Predictive models of any type can vary significantly in performance at any point in time, and nobody can guarantee any specific type of future performance.
When using forecasts in making decisions, DO NOT treat them as any form of guarantee that values will fall within the predicted range.
When basing your trading decisions on any trading methodology or utility, predictive or not, you do so at your own risk.
No guarantee is being issued regarding the accuracy of this forecast model.
Forecasting is very far from an exact science, and the results from any forecast are designed to be interpreted as potential outcomes rather than anything concrete.
With that being said, when applied prudently and treated as "general case scenarios", forecast models like these may very well be potentially beneficial tools to have in the arsenal.
Price Action - Support & Resistance by DGTSᴜᴘᴘᴏʀᴛ ᴀɴᴅ Rᴇꜱɪꜱᴛᴀɴᴄᴇ , is undoubtedly one of the key concepts of technical analysis
█ Sᴜᴘᴘᴏʀᴛ ᴀɴᴅ Rᴇꜱɪꜱᴛᴀɴᴄᴇ Dᴇꜰɪɴɪᴛɪᴏɴ
Support and Resistance terms are used by traders to refer to price levels on charts that tend to act as barriers, preventing the price of an financial instrument from getting pushed in a certain direction.
A support level is a price level where buyers are more aggressive than sellers. This means that the price is more likely to "bounce" off this level rather than break through it. However, once the price has breached this level it is likely to continue falling until meeting another support level.
A resistance level is the opposite of a support level. It is where the price tends to find resistance as it rises. Again, this means that the price is more likely to "bounce" off this level rather than break through it. However, once the price has breached this level it is likely to continue rising until meeting another resistance level.
A previous support level will sometimes become a resistance level when the price attempts to move back up, and conversely, a resistance level will become a support level as the price temporarily falls back.
█ Iᴅᴇɴᴛɪꜰʏɪɴɢ Sᴜᴘᴘᴏʀᴛ ᴀɴᴅ Rᴇꜱɪꜱᴛᴀɴᴄᴇ
Support and resistance can come in various forms, and the concept is more difficult to master than it first appears. Identification of key support and resistance levels is an essential ingredient to successful technical analysis.
If the price stalls and reverses in the same price area on minimum of two different occasions, then a horizontal line is drawn to show that the market is struggling to move past that area. Those areas are static barriers, one of the most popular forms of support/resistance and are highlighted with horizontal lines.
Repeated test , the more often a support/resistance level is "tested" over an extended period of time (touched and bounced off by price), the more significance is given to that specific level
High volume , the more buying and selling that has occurred at a particular price level, the stronger the support or resistance level is likely to be
Market psychology , plays a major role as traders and investors remember the past and react to changing conditions to anticipate future market movement.
Psychological levels , is a price level that significantly affects the price of an underlying financial instrument. Typically, near round numbers often serve as support and resistance
The following support and resistance related topics are beyond the scope of this study, so they will be mentioned roughly only as a reference for support and resistance concept
Trendlines , Support and resistance levels in trends are dynamic. Throughout an uptrend, levels of support tend to look like a trendline, usually clustering around higher lows. As the price rises, the price where buyers consider the stock to be “too cheap” also changes, which creates new support levels on the way up. The same is also true for resistance levels. In an uptrend, a stock is continuously breaking through perceived resistance levels and making new highs
Moving Averages , is a constantly changing line that smooths out past price data while also allowing the trader to identify support and resistance. In the example Notice how the price of the asset finds support at the moving average when the trend is up, and how it acts as resistance when the trend is down
The Fibonacci Retracement/Extension tool , is a favorite among many short-term traders because it clearly identifies levels of potential support and resistance
Pivot Point Calculations , is another common technical analysis technique, where pivot point is calculated based on the high, low, and closing prices of previous trading session/day and support & resistance levels are projected based on the pivot point, different calculation techniques are available, as presented in this example of an pivot point indicator : PVTvX by DGT
█ Tʀᴀᴅɪɴɢ Bᴀꜱᴇᴅ ᴏɴ Sᴜᴘᴘᴏʀᴛ ᴀɴᴅ Rᴇꜱɪꜱᴛᴀɴᴄᴇ
Once an area or "zone" of support or resistance has been identified, those price levels can serve as potential entry or exit points because, as a price reaches a point of support or resistance, it will do one of two things—bounce back away from the support or resistance level (trading ranges), or violate the price level and continue in its direction (trading breakouts) —until it hits the next support or resistance level
The basic trading method for using support and resistance is to buy near support in uptrends or the parts of ranges or chart patterns where prices are moving up and to sell/sell short near resistance in downtrends or the parts of ranges and chart patterns where prices are moving down. Buying near support or selling near resistance can pay off, but there is no assurance that the support or resistance will hold. Therefore, consider waiting for some confirmation that the market is still respecting that area
Trading breakouts, a breakout is a potential trading opportunity that occurs when an asset's price moves above a resistance level or moves below a support level on increasing volume. The first step in trading breakouts is to identify current price trend patterns along with support and resistance levels in order to plan possible entry and exit points. Once the asset trades beyond the price barrier, volatility tends to increase and prices usually trend in the breakout's direction. Breakouts are such an important trading strategy since these setups are the starting point for future volatility increases, large price swings and, in many circumstances, major price trends. When trading breakouts, it is important to consider the underlying asset's support and resistance levels. The more times an asset price has touched these areas, the more valid these levels are and the more important they become. At the same time, the longer these support and resistance levels have been in play, the better the outcome when the asset price finally breaks out. Asset prices will often move slightly further than we expect them to. This doesn't happen all the time, but when it does it is called a false breakout. Therefore it is important to consider waiting for some confirmation while trading breakouts. It’s also popular for traders to sell 50% of their positions at the resistance level, and hold the rest in anticipation of a breakout above resistance
█ Pʀɪᴄᴇ Aᴄᴛɪᴏɴ - Sᴜᴘᴘᴏʀᴛ & Rᴇꜱɪꜱᴛᴀɴᴄᴇ ʙʏ DGT Sᴛᴜᴅʏ
This experimental study attempts to identify the support and resistance levels. Assumes a simple logic to discover moments where the price is rising or falling consecutively for minimum 3 bars with the condition volume increases on each bar and the last bar’s volume should be bigger than the long term volume moving average. A line will be drawn at the end of the move (highest or lowest, depending on the move direction), the line will be drawn at minimum on the 3rd bar and if condition holds for other consecutive bars the line will switch to 4th, 5th etc bar.
Lines will not be deleted so the historical ones will remain and will emphasis the levels significance when they overlap in feature. Strong levels are more likely to hold and cause the price to move in the other direction, whereas the minor levels may only cause the price to pause and keep moving in the same direction. Determining future levels of support and resistance can drastically improve the returns of a short-term investing strategy
Bar colors will be painted based on the volume of the specific bar to its long term volume moving average. This will help identifying the support and resistance levels significance and emphasis the sings of breakouts
Finally, Volume spikes will be marked on top of the price chart. A high volume usually indicates more interest in the security and the presence of institutional traders. However, a rapidly rising price in an uptrend accompanied by a huge volume may be a sign of exhaustion. Traders usually look for breaks of support and resistance to enter positions. When security break critical levels without volume , you should consider the breakout suspect and prime for a reversal off the highs/lows. Volume spikes are often the result of news-driven events. Volume spike will often lead to sharp reversals since the moves are unsustainable due to the imbalance of supply and demand
A good example with many support and resistance concepts observed on a stock chart and detected by the study
Settings:
Length of volume moving average, where volume moving average is used to detect support and resistance levels, is used as reference to compare with threshold values for volume spikes and colors of the bars
Hint, to get more historical lines scrolling chart to left will enable visualization of them. Please note they may appear to much all 500 line limit is used 😉
Special thanks to @HEMANT Telegram user, for his observations and suggestions
Disclaimer:
Trading success is all about following your trading strategy and the indicators should fit within your trading strategy, and not to be traded upon solely
The script is for informational and educational purposes only. Use of the script does not constitute professional and/or financial advice. You alone have the sole responsibility of evaluating the script output and risks associated with the use of the script. In exchange for using the script, you agree not to hold dgtrd TradingView user liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on use of the script
Pragmatic risk managementINTRO
The indicator is calculating multiple moving averages on the value of price change %. It then combines the normalized (via arctan function) values into a single normalized value (via simple average).
The total error from the center of gravity and the angle in which the error is accumulating represented by 4 waves:
BLUE = Good for chance for price to go up
GREEN = Good chance for price to continue going up
ORANGE = Good chance for price to go down
RED = Good chance for price to continue going down
A full cycle of ORANGE\RED\BLUE\GREEN colors will ideally lead to the exact same cycle, if not, try to understand why.
NOTICE-
This indicator is calculating large time-windows so It can be heavy on your device. Tested on PC browser only.
My visual setup:
1. Add two indicators on-top of each other and merge their scales (It will help out later).
2. Zoom out price chart to see the maximum possible data.
3. Set different colors for both indicators for simple visual seperation.
4. Choose 2 different values, one as high as possible and one as low as possible.
(Possible - the indicator remains effective at distinguishing the cycle).
Manual calibration:
0. Select a fixed chart resolution (2H resolution minimum recommended).
1. Change the "mul2" parameter in ranges between 4-15 .
2. Observe the "Turning points" of price movement. (Typically when RED\GREEN are about to switch.)
2. Perform a segmentation of time slices and find cycles. No need to be exact!
3. Draw a square on price movement at place and color as the dominant wave currently inside the indicator.
This procedure should lead to a full price segmentation with easier anchoring.
GBTC Fomo Panic PremiumIt is rumored that GBTC price action leads the Bitcoin market. This indicator compares GBTC fomo/panic levels to the (Binance) BTC spot market. Fomo is measured as large percentage moves of the high price from the min over a look-back period. Panic is measured as large percentage moves of the low price from the max over a look-back period. A prime example of this indicator's usage would be as a sell signal confirmation during the 2020 pre-Thanksgiving panic exhibited on the 1-hour chart while the 20 EMA was still above the 99 SMA.
You can customize the leading and lagging markets and the length of the lookback period. I would love to hear what parameters, markets and timeframes work for you. Maybe there is a way to leave comments, or hit me up on Twitter: @thirdreplicator
May you profit and enjoy.
Spread Entry Balance of PowerThis is a bar chart showing the strength of a potential option spread entry using 8 conditions for each side of a trade, bull or bear.
In theory, if the SE Strength (Spread Entry Strength) is at one of the extremes of the Bear or Bull side, then a spread is prime for entry.
To calculate this, the 8 conditions receive a 1 or zero dependent on whether the condition is true (1) or false (0), and then all of those are summed. The primary gist of the strength comes from Nishant's book, or my interpretation thereof, with some additives that limits what I need to review (such as condition 8 below.)
The 8 Bull Conditions are:
1) Bollinger Bands are outside of the Keltner Channels
2) ADX is trending up
3) RSI is trending up
4) -DI is trending down
5) RSI is under 30
6) Price is below the lower Keltner Channel
7) Price is between the lower Bollinger Band and the Bollinger basis.
8) Price at one point within the last 5 bars was below the lower Bollinger Band
The 8 Bear Conditions are the inverse conditions (except the first), and the conditions are given a negative disposition (meaning they sum to -8 :)):
1) Bollinger Bands are outside of the Keltner Channels
2) ADX is trending down
3) RSI is trending down
4) +DI is trending up
5) RSI is over 70
6) Price is above the upper Keltner Channel
7) Price is between the upper Bollinger Band and the Bollinger basis.
8) Price at one point within the last 5 bars was above the upper Bollinger Band
Neglected Volume by DGTVolume is one piece of information that is often neglected, however, learning to interpret volume brings many advantages and could be of tremendous help when it comes to analyzing the markets. In addition to technicians, fundamental investors also take notice of the numbers of shares traded for a given security.
What is Volume?
The volume represents all the recorded trades for a security that occurs in a given time interval. It is a measurement of the participation, enthusiasm, and interest in a given security. Think of volume as the force that drives the market. Volume substantiates, energizes, and empowers price. When volume increases, it confirms price direction; when volume decreases, it contradicts price direction.
In theory, increases in volume generally precede significant price movements. However, If the price is rising in an uptrend but the volume is reducing or unchanged, it may show that there’s little interest in the security, and the price may reverse.
A high volume usually indicates more interest in the security and the presence of institutional traders. However, a rapidly rising price in an uptrend accompanied by a huge volume may be a sign of exhaustion.
Traders usually look for breaks of support and resistance to enter positions. When security break critical levels without volume, you should consider the breakout suspect and prime for a reversal off the highs/lows
Volume spikes are often the result of news-driven events. Volume spike will often lead to sharp reversals since the moves are unsustainable due to the imbalance of supply and demand
note : there’s no centralized exchange where trades are recorded, so the volume data represents what happens at a particular exchange only
In most charting platforms, the volume indicator is presented as color-coded bars, green if the security closes up and red if the security closed lower, where the height of the bars show the amount of the recorded trades
Within this study, Relative Volume , Volume Weighted Bars and Volume Moving Average are presented, where Relative Volume relates current trading volume to past trading volume over long period, Volume Weighted Bars presents price bars colored based on short period past trading volume average, and Volume Moving Average is average of volume over shot period
Relative Volume is presented as color-coded bars similar to regular Volume indicator but uses four color codes instead two. Notable increases of volume are presented in green and red while average values with back and gray, hence adding ability to emphasis notable increases in the volume. It is kind of a like a radar for how "in-play" a security is. Users are allowed to change the threshold, default value is set to Fibonacci golden ration standard deviation away from its moving average.
Volume Weighted Bars, a study of Kıvanç Özbilgiç, aims to present if price movements are supported by Volume. Volume Weighted Bars are calculated based on shot period volume moving average which will reflect more recent changes in volume. Price actions with high volume will be displayed with darker colors, average volume values will remain as they are and low volume values will be indicated with lighter colors.
Volume Moving Average, Is short period volume moving average, aims to display visually the volume changes. Please not that Relative Volume bars are calculated based on standard deviation of long volume moving average.
What Else?
Apart from the volume itself, your ability to assess what volume is telling you in conjunction with price action can be a key factor in your ability to turn a profit in the market. It makes little sense to analyze the volume alone. To correctly interpret the volume data, it shall be seen in the light of what the price is doing. there are a lot of other indicators that are based on the volume data as well as price action. Analysing those volume indicators has always helped traders and investors to better understand what is happening in the market.
Here are the ones adapted with this study. Some of them used as a source for our aim, some adapted as they are with slight changes to fit visually to this study and please note that the numerical presentation may differ from their regular use
• On Balance Volume
• Divergence Indicator
• Correlation Coefficient
• Chaikin Money Flow
Shortly;
On Balance Volume
The On Balance Volume indicator, is a technical analysis indicator that relates volume flow to changes in a security’s price. It uses a cumulative total of positive and negative trading volume to predict the direction of price. The OBV is a volume-based momentum oscillator, so it is a leading indicator — it changes direction before the price
Granville, creator of OBV, proposed the theory that changes in volume precede price movements in a measurable way. He believed that volume was the main force behind major market moves and thought of OBV’s prediction of price changes as a compressed spring that expands rapidly when released.
It is believed that the OBV shows the interactions between the institutional and retail traders in the market
If the price makes a new high, the OBV should also make a new high. If the OBV makes a lower high when the price makes a higher high, there’s a classical bearish divergence — indicating that only the retail traders are buying. Another type of bearish divergence occurs when the price remains relatively quiet and fails to make a higher high but the OBV soars higher than the previous high — indicating that the institutional traders are accumulating short positions. On the other hand, if the price makes a lower low and the OBV makes a higher low, there is a classical bullish divergence, showing that the institutional traders don’t believe in that move
With this study, Momentum and Acceleration (optional) of OBV is calculated and presented, where momentum is most commonly referred to as a rate and measures the acceleration of the price and/or volume of a security. It is also referred to as a technical analysis indicator and oscillator that is able to determine market trends.
Additionally, smoothing functionality with Least Squares Method is added
Divergences especially, should always be noted as a possible reversal in the current trend, so the divergence indicator is adapted with this study where the Momentum of OBV is assumed as Oscillator with similar usages as to RSI. Divergence is most often used to track and analyze the momentum in an asset’s price and the odds of a price reversal within the current trend. The divergence indicator warns traders and technical analysts of changes in a price/volume trend, oftentimes that it is weakening or changing direction.
Correlation Coefficient
The correlation coefficient is a statistical measure of the strength of the relationship between the relative movements of two variables. A correlation of -1.0 shows a perfect negative correlation, while a correlation of 1.0 shows a perfect positive correlation. A correlation of 0.0 shows no linear relationship between the movement of the two variables. In other words, the closer the Correlation Coefficient is to 1.0, indicates the instruments will move up and down together as it is mostly expected with volume and price. So the Correlation Coefficient Indicator aims to display when the price and volume (on balance volume) is in correlation and when not. With this study blue represent positive correlation while orange negative correlation. The strength of the correlation is determined by the width of the bands, to emphasis the effect horizontal lines are drawn with values set to 0.5 and -0.5. the values above 0.5 (or below -0.5) shows stronger correlation.
Chaikin Money Flow , provide optionally as a companion indicator
The Chaikin money flow indicator (CMF) is a volume indicator that measures the money flow volume over a chosen period. The money flow volume is a measure of the volume and where the price closed relative to the trading session’s range. It comes from the idea that buying pressure is indicated by a rising volume and recurrent closes in the upper part of the session’s price range while selling pressure is demonstrated by an increasing volume and repeated closes in the lower part of the price range.
Both buying and selling pressures are accompanied by an increase in volume, but the location of the closing prices are in accordance with the direction of price
Special thanks to @InvestCHK and @hjsjshs , who have enormously contributed while preparing this study
related studies:
Disclaimer:
Trading success is all about following your trading strategy and the indicators should fit within your trading strategy, and not to be traded upon solely
The script is for informational and educational purposes only. Use of the script does not constitute professional and/or financial advice. You alone have the sole responsibility of evaluating the script output and risks associated with the use of the script. In exchange for using the script, you agree not to hold dgtrd TradingView user liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on use of the script
Ruckard TradingLatinoThis strategy tries to mimic TradingLatino strategy.
The current implementation is beta.
Si hablas castellano o espanyol por favor consulta MENSAJE EN CASTELLANO más abajo.
It's aimed at BTCUSDT pair and 4h timeframe.
STRATEGY DEFAULT SETTINGS EXPLANATION
max_bars_back=5000 : This is a random number of bars so that the strategy test lasts for one or two years
calc_on_order_fills=false : To wait for the 4h closing is too much. Try to check if it's worth entering a position after closing one. I finally decided not to recheck if it's worth entering after an order is closed. So it is false.
calc_on_every_tick=false
pyramiding=0 : We only want one entry allowed in the same direction. And we don't want the order to scale by error.
initial_capital=1000 : These are 1000 USDT. By using 1% maximum loss per trade and 7% as a default stop loss by using 1000 USDT at 12000 USDT per BTC price you would entry with around 142 USDT which are converted into: 0.010 BTC . The maximum number of decimal for contracts on this BTCUSDT market is 3 decimals. E.g. the minimum might be: 0.001 BTC . So, this minimal 1000 amount ensures us not to entry with less than 0.001 entries which might have happened when using 100 USDT as an initial capital.
slippage=1 : Binance BTCUSDT mintick is: 0.01. Binance slippage: 0.1 % (Let's assume). TV has an integer slippage. It does not have a percentage based slippage. If we assume a 1000 initial capital, the recommended equity is 142 which at 11996 USDT per BTC price means: 0.011 BTC. The 0.1% slippage of: 0.011 BTC would be: 0.000011 . This is way smaller than the mintick. So our slippage is going to be 1. E.g. 1 (slippage) * 0.01 (mintick)
commission_type=strategy.commission.percent and commission_value=0.1 : According to: binance . com / en / fee / schedule in VIP 0 level both maker and taker fees are: 0.1 %.
BACKGROUND
Jaime Merino is a well known Youtuber focused on crypto trading
His channel TradingLatino
features monday to friday videos where he explains his strategy.
JAIME MERINO STANCE ON BOTS
Jaime Merino stance on bots (taken from memory out of a 2020 June video from him):
'~
You know. They can program you a bot and it might work.
But, there are some special situations that the bot would not be able to handle.
And, I, as a human, I would handle it. And the bot wouldn't do it.
~'
My long term target with this strategy script is add as many
special situations as I can to the script
so that it can match Jaime Merino behaviour even in non normal circumstances.
My alternate target is learn Pine script
and enjoy programming with it.
WARNING
This script might be bigger than other TradingView scripts.
However, please, do not be confused because the current status is beta.
This script has not been tested with real money.
This is NOT an official strategy from Jaime Merino.
This is NOT an official strategy from TradingLatino . net .
HOW IT WORKS
It basically uses ADX slope and LazyBear's Squeeze Momentum Indicator
to make its buy and sell decisions.
Fast paced EMA being bigger than slow paced EMA
(on higher timeframe) advices going long.
Fast paced EMA being smaller than slow paced EMA
(on higher timeframe) advices going short.
It finally add many substrats that TradingLatino uses.
SETTINGS
__ SETTINGS - Basics
____ SETTINGS - Basics - ADX
(ADX) Smoothing {14}
(ADX) DI Length {14}
(ADX) key level {23}
____ SETTINGS - Basics - LazyBear Squeeze Momentum
(SQZMOM) BB Length {20}
(SQZMOM) BB MultFactor {2.0}
(SQZMOM) KC Length {20}
(SQZMOM) KC MultFactor {1.5}
(SQZMOM) Use TrueRange (KC) {True}
____ SETTINGS - Basics - EMAs
(EMAS) EMA10 - Length {10}
(EMAS) EMA10 - Source {close}
(EMAS) EMA55 - Length {55}
(EMAS) EMA55 - Source {close}
____ SETTINGS - Volume Profile
Lowest and highest VPoC from last three days
is used to know if an entry has a support
VPVR of last 100 4h bars
is also taken into account
(VP) Use number of bars (not VP timeframe): Uses 'Number of bars {100}' setting instead of 'Volume Profile timeframe' setting for calculating session VPoC
(VP) Show tick difference from current price {False}: BETA . Might be useful for actions some day.
(VP) Number of bars {100}: If 'Use number of bars (not VP timeframe)' is turned on this setting is used to calculate session VPoC.
(VP) Volume Profile timeframe {1 day}: If 'Use number of bars (not VP timeframe)' is turned off this setting is used to calculate session VPoC.
(VP) Row width multiplier {0.6}: Adjust how the extra Volume Profile bars are shown in the chart.
(VP) Resistances prices number of decimal digits : Round Volume Profile bars label numbers so that they don't have so many decimals.
(VP) Number of bars for bottom VPOC {18}: 18 bars equals 3 days in suggested timeframe of 4 hours. It's used to calculate lowest session VPoC from previous three days. It's also used as a top VPOC for sells.
(VP) Ignore VPOC bottom advice on long {False}: If turned on it ignores bottom VPOC (or top VPOC on sells) when evaluating if a buy entry is worth it.
(VP) Number of bars for VPVR VPOC {100}: Number of bars to calculate the VPVR VPoC. We use 100 as Jaime once used. When the price bounces back to the EMA55 it might just bounce to this VPVR VPoC if its price it's lower than the EMA55 (Sells have inverse algorithm).
____ SETTINGS - ADX Slope
ADX Slope
help us to understand if ADX
has a positive slope, negative slope
or it is rather still.
(ADXSLOPE) ADX cut {23}: If ADX value is greater than this cut (23) then ADX has strength
(ADXSLOPE) ADX minimum steepness entry {45}: ADX slope needs to be 45 degrees to be considered as a positive one.
(ADXSLOPE) ADX minimum steepness exit {45}: ADX slope needs to be -45 degrees to be considered as a negative one.
(ADXSLOPE) ADX steepness periods {3}: In order to avoid false detection the slope is calculated along 3 periods.
____ SETTINGS - Next to EMA55
(NEXTEMA55) EMA10 to EMA55 bounce back percentage {80}: EMA10 might bounce back to EMA55 or maybe to 80% of its complete way to EMA55
(NEXTEMA55) Next to EMA55 percentage {15}: How much next to the EMA55 you need to be to consider it's going to bounce back upwards again.
____ SETTINGS - Stop Loss and Take Profit
You can set a default stop loss or a default take profit.
(STOPTAKE) Stop Loss % {7.0}
(STOPTAKE) Take Profit % {2.0}
____ SETTINGS - Trailing Take Profit
You can customize the default trailing take profit values
(TRAILING) Trailing Take Profit (%) {1.0}: Trailing take profit offset in percentage
(TRAILING) Trailing Take Profit Trigger (%) {2.0}: When 2.0% of benefit is reached then activate the trailing take profit.
____ SETTINGS - MAIN TURN ON/OFF OPTIONS
(EMAS) Ignore advice based on emas {false}.
(EMAS) Ignore advice based on emas (On closing long signal) {False}: Ignore advice based on emas but only when deciding to close a buy entry.
(SQZMOM) Ignore advice based on SQZMOM {false}: Ignores advice based on SQZMOM indicator.
(ADXSLOPE) Ignore advice based on ADX positive slope {false}
(ADXSLOPE) Ignore advice based on ADX cut (23) {true}
(STOPTAKE) Take Profit? {false}: Enables simple Take Profit.
(STOPTAKE) Stop Loss? {True}: Enables simple Stop Loss.
(TRAILING) Enable Trailing Take Profit (%) {True}: Enables Trailing Take Profit.
____ SETTINGS - Strategy mode
(STRAT) Type Strategy: 'Long and Short', 'Long Only' or 'Short Only'. Default: 'Long and Short'.
____ SETTINGS - Risk Management
(RISKM) Risk Management Type: 'Safe', 'Somewhat safe compound' or 'Unsafe compound'. ' Safe ': Calculations are always done with the initial capital (1000) in mind. The maximum losses per trade/day/week/month are taken into account. ' Somewhat safe compound ': Calculations are done with initial capital (1000) or a higher capital if it increases. The maximum losses per trade/day/week/month are taken into account. ' Unsafe compound ': In each order all the current capital is gambled and only the default stop loss per order is taken into account. That means that the maximum losses per trade/day/week/month are not taken into account. Default : 'Somewhat safe compound'.
(RISKM) Maximum loss per trade % {1.0}.
(RISKM) Maximum loss per day % {6.0}.
(RISKM) Maximum loss per week % {8.0}.
(RISKM) Maximum loss per month % {10.0}.
____ SETTINGS - Decimals
(DECIMAL) Maximum number of decimal for contracts {3}: How small (3 decimals means 0.001) an entry position might be in your exchange.
EXTRA 1 - PRICE IS IN RANGE indicator
(PRANGE) Print price is in range {False}: Enable a bottom label that indicates if the price is in range or not.
(PRANGE) Price range periods {5}: How many previous periods are used to calculate the medians
(PRANGE) Price range maximum desviation (%) {0.6} ( > 0 ): Maximum positive desviation for range detection
(PRANGE) Price range minimum desviation (%) {0.6} ( > 0 ): Mininum negative desviation for range detection
EXTRA 2 - SQUEEZE MOMENTUM Desviation indicator
(SQZDIVER) Show degrees {False}: Show degrees of each Squeeze Momentum Divergence lines to the x-axis.
(SQZDIVER) Show desviation labels {False}: Whether to show or not desviation labels for the Squeeze Momentum Divergences.
(SQZDIVER) Show desviation lines {False}: Whether to show or not desviation lines for the Squeeze Momentum Divergences.
EXTRA 3 - VOLUME PROFILE indicator
WARNING: This indicator works not on current bar but on previous bar. So in the worst case it might be VP from 4 hours ago. Don't worry, inside the strategy calculus the correct values are used. It's just that I cannot show the most recent one in the chart.
(VP) Print recent profile {False}: Show Volume Profile indicator
(VP) Avoid label price overlaps {False}: Avoid label prices to overlap on the chart.
EXTRA 4 - ZIGNALY SUPPORT
(ZIG) Zignaly Alert Type {Email}: 'Email', 'Webhook'. ' Email ': Prepare alert_message variable content to be compatible with zignaly expected email content format. ' Webhook ': Prepare alert_message variable content to be compatible with zignaly expected json content format.
EXTRA 5 - DEBUG
(DEBUG) Enable debug on order comments {False}: If set to true it prepares the order message to match the alert_message variable. It makes easier to debug what would have been sent by email or webhook on each of the times an order is triggered.
HOW TO USE THIS STRATEGY
BOT MODE: This is the default setting.
PROPER VOLUME PROFILE VIEWING: Click on this strategy settings. Properties tab. Make sure Recalculate 'each time the order was run' is turned off.
NEWBIE USER: (Check PROPER VOLUME PROFILE VIEWING above!) You might want to turn on the 'Print recent profile {False}' setting. Alternatively you can use my alternate realtime study: 'Resistances and supports based on simplified Volume Profile' but, be aware, it might consume one indicator.
ADVANCED USER 1: Turn on the 'Print price is in range {False}' setting and help us to debug this subindicator. Also help us to figure out how to include this value in the strategy.
ADVANCED USER 2: Turn on the all the (SQZDIVER) settings and help us to figure out how to include this value in the strategy.
ADVANCED USER 3: (Check PROPER VOLUME PROFILE VIEWING above!) Turn on the 'Print recent profile {False}' setting and report any problem with it.
JAIME MERINO: Just use the indicator as it comes by default. It should only show BUY signals, SELL signals and their associated closing signals. From time to time you might want to check 'ADVANCED USER 2' instructions to check that there's actually a divergence. Check also 'ADVANCED USER 1' instructions for your amusement.
EXTRA ADVICE
It's advised that you use this strategy in addition to these two other indicators:
* Squeeze Momentum Indicator
* ADX
so that your chart matches as close as possible to TradingLatino chart.
ZIGNALY INTEGRATION
This strategy supports Zignaly email integration by default. It also supports Zignaly Webhook integration.
ZIGNALY INTEGRATION - Email integration example
What you would write in your alert message:
||{{strategy.order.alert_message}}||key=MYSECRETKEY||
ZIGNALY INTEGRATION - Webhook integration example
What you would write in your alert message:
{ {{strategy.order.alert_message}} , "key" : "MYSECRETKEY" }
CREDITS
I have reused and adapted some code from
'Directional Movement Index + ADX & Keylevel Support' study
which it's from TradingView console user.
I have reused and adapted some code from
'3ema' study
which it's from TradingView hunganhnguyen1193 user.
I have reused and adapted some code from
'Squeeze Momentum Indicator ' study
which it's from TradingView LazyBear user.
I have reused and adapted some code from
'Strategy Tester EMA-SMA-RSI-MACD' study
which it's from TradingView fikira user.
I have reused and adapted some code from
'Support Resistance MTF' study
which it's from TradingView LonesomeTheBlue user.
I have reused and adapted some code from
'TF Segmented Linear Regression' study
which it's from TradingView alexgrover user.
I have reused and adapted some code from
"Poor man's volume profile" study
which it's from TradingView IldarAkhmetgaleev user.
FEEDBACK
Please check the strategy source code for more detailed information
where, among others, I explain all of the substrats
and if they are implemented or not.
Q1. Did I understand wrong any of the Jaime substrats (which I have implemented)?
Q2. The strategy yields quite profit when we should long (EMA10 from 1d timeframe is higher than EMA55 from 1d timeframe.
Why the strategy yields much less profit when we should short (EMA10 from 1d timeframe is lower than EMA55 from 1d timeframe)?
Any idea if you need to do something else rather than just reverse what Jaime does when longing?
FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS
FAQ1. Why are you giving this strategy for free?
TradingLatino and his fellow enthusiasts taught me this strategy. Now I'm giving back to them.
FAQ2. Seriously! Why are you giving this strategy for free?
I'm confident his strategy might be improved a lot. By keeping it to myself I would avoid other people contributions to improve it.
Now that everyone can contribute this is a win-win.
FAQ3. How can I connect this strategy to my Exchange account?
It seems that you can attach alerts to strategies.
You might want to combine it with a paying account which enable Webhook URLs to work.
I don't know how all of this works right now so I cannot give you advice on it.
You will have to do your own research on this subject. But, be careful. Automating trades, if not done properly,
might end on you automating losses.
FAQ4. I have just found that this strategy by default gives more than 3.97% of 'maximum series of losses'. That's unacceptable according to my risk management policy.
You might want to reduce default stop loss setting from 7% to something like 5% till you are ok with the 'maximum series of losses'.
FAQ5. Where can I learn more about your work on this strategy?
Check the source code. You might find unused strategies. Either because there's not a substantial increases on earnings. Or maybe because they have not been implemented yet.
FAQ6. How much leverage is applied in this strategy?
No leverage.
FAQ7. Any difference with original Jaime Merino strategy?
Most of the times Jaime defines an stop loss at the price entry. That's not the case here. The default stop loss is 7% (but, don't be confused it only means losing 1% of your investment thanks to risk management). There's also a trailing take profit that triggers at 2% profit with a 1% trailing.
FAQ8. Why this strategy return is so small?
The strategy should be improved a lot. And, well, backtesting in this platform is not guaranteed to return theoric results comparable to real-life returns. That's why I'm personally forward testing this strategy to verify it.
MENSAJE EN CASTELLANO
En primer lugar se agradece feedback para mejorar la estrategia.
Si eres un usuario avanzado y quieres colaborar en mejorar el script no dudes en comentar abajo.
Ten en cuenta que aunque toda esta descripción tenga que estar en inglés no es obligatorio que el comentario esté en inglés.
CHISTE - CASTELLANO
¡Pero Jaime!
¡400.000!
¡Tu da mun!
RSI (w/ Curve and Volatility)This is a centered triple oscillator which measures RSI, RVI (volatility), and Coppock Curve (trend). This is centered so it ranges from negative 50 to positive 50. This indicator is used most accurately when all 3 indicators show above/below 0.
RSI is the bright pink line. RSI determines strength in a direction. When it is above 20 or below -20, a pullback is likely - this could be a prime time to scale out of position. Remember do not enter a trade just because it is oversold, as the strength is still greatly against you.
RVI is the thin lighter line. RVI was created by Donald Dorsey to use in conjunction with other indicators. The instructions for using RVI is to sell/short when below -10 and buy/cover when above 10. Use this indicator to confirm your bias.
The purple area is the Coppock curve . This curve is used to analyze longer term trends in a chart. RSI and RVI struggle to indicate long term trends, use the Coppock curve to confirm your bias. The curve is bullish when above 0 and bearish when below 0. Be cautious when trying to buy or sell it early when its falling. If it is falling and pops back up without reaching 0, it is typically indicate of a big price movement in that direction.
Higher Highs & Lower Lows Stochastics - Vitali ApirineThis is my modified "Higher Highs & Lower Lows Stochastics" employing PSv4.0, originally formulated by Vitali Apirine for TASC - February 2016 Traders Tips. Reading through a TASC magazine of mine, behold, I found a little known indicator that I can't find anywhere on all of Tradingview. That was a tragedy I felt I had to resolve... This indicator is best described as a dual momentum indicator, being helpful with anticipating reversals, spotting emerging trends, and defining correction periods. I felt it worthy of justice to unveil this for all TV members to utilize and also learn from. It's uniqueness is beyond past due for the honor it deserves on Tradingview.
As always, I have included advanced Pine programming techniques that conform to proper "Pine Etiquette". For those of you who are newcomers to Pine Script, this code release may also help you comprehend the "Power of Pine" by employing advanced programming techniques while exhibiting code utilization in a most effective manner. This script's uniqueness displays that we can now override built-in Pine functions. Firstly, you may have noticed that I replaced ema(), sma(), highest(), and lowest(). If you weren't aware of this Pine capability, well, here is a prime example... Now you know! Just heed caution when doing so to ensure your replacement algorithms are 100% sound. Lastly, I also added an additional "Median" line where the companion stochastics seemingly appear to gravitate within a central zone.
NOTICE: You may have observed, there is highest(), lowest(), ema(), and sma() custom functions overwriting Pine built-ins, some of which are audaciously used in ternary. "IF" you are planning to use Pine Script v4.0 functions in ternary, be forewarned, they WILL NOT operate as expected in most scenarios. The reason why I legitimately used them here in ternary is because they are ONLY manually controlled by an input(). If these were dynamically controlled with bar-to-bar dynamic conditional logic, you would most certainly run into serious unexpected programming issues, potentially resulting in hours of frustrations and guaranteed loss of hair. That's my lesson for this release, so never ever forget this when utilizing the full potential of the "Power of Pine". For more information concerning these potential dilemmas, please consult "Execution of Pine functions and historical context inside function blocks" in the "Pine Script v4 User Manual".
Features List Includes:
Dark Background - Easily disabled in indicator Settings->Style for "Light" charts or with Pine commenting
AND much, much more... You have the source!
The comments section below is solely just for commenting and other remarks, ideas, compliments, etc... regarding only this indicator, not others. When available time provides itself, I will consider your inquiries, thoughts, and concepts presented below in the comments section, should you have any questions or comments regarding this indicator. When my indicators achieve more prevalent use by TV members, I may implement more ideas when they present themselves as worthy additions. As always, "Like" it if you simply just like it with a proper thumbs up, and also return to my scripts list occasionally for additional postings. Have a profitable future everyone!
Yield Curve Inversion MonitorIdentifies when the US Treasury Yield Curve inverts (2 and 10 year bond rates).
When they ‘invert’ long-term bonds have a lower interest rate than short-term bonds. In other words, the bond market is pricing in a significant drop in future interest rates (which might be caused by the US Fed fighting off a recession in the future).
In the last 50 years, every time the US treasury yield curve inverted a recession followed within 3 years. On average the S&P500 gained 19.1% following the inversion and peaked 13 months later. In other words, as far as investors are concerned, the recession began roughly one year later.
However, once the market peaks, it then drops 37.6% on average, wiping out all those gains and more.
...Looks like 2020 is shaping up to be another prime example.
3 Medias MóvilesEste es mi primer proyecto de programar un script en pie de 3 medias móviles con un tamaño fijo de 8,21,200
Mega Trend Plus - S&P 500 Trend Follower / Market GaugeFirstly, 100% of the credit goes to Greg Morris @ Stockcharts.com for the article detailing the concept and most of the settings/components. I've simply implemented his idea. I haven't sought permission from him, but given that he was open with the components of the indicator I'm assuming he's happy for me to go ahead and code this in pinescript. See the article here: stockcharts.com
Okay, so this is part of a system/indicator Greg outlined in the article that he calls Trend Gauge. The idea is fairly simple: take a group of indexes that cover the breadth of the market you want to trade, track their relationship/position to their 200 period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), and assign scores to bull/bear crosses + relative location to the EMA. Once you've normalized and aggregated the scores you finish up with a trend following indicator that works surprisingly well.
This part is called Mega Trend Plus, and tracks whether an index is above or below its 200 period EMA. I'll be releasing the second part ("Trend Strength") soon. Once that's done I'll combine them to form the full "Trend Gauge" indicator.
I decided to provide the base version that people can then experiment with and tweak to their liking, so Greg's version shown in the article is smoother than the one provided here. It's up to you to play with smoothing options, and potentially tweak the weightings of the various components. Please see the script for info on what the various inputs are - I've added notes there.
So, how does it do? Well, as you can see from the chart above it works pretty well overall. The S&P 500 has been fairly trendy over the last few decades, so it's been prime territory for a system like this. It would have kept you out of the big bear markets (particularly GFC & 2015-16), and that's the goal of any trend-based system. They thrive on how little they lose, not necessarily on how much they make.
As you can see, the indicator is pretty choppy. So it's not designed (in the current configuration) to provide accurate buy/hold/sell signals. It currently functions more as a market gauge / strength indicator.
Hopefully you find this concept interesting. It's simple, but the best systems often are.
Please add comments below if you come up with an interesting configuration or variation.
Let me know if you have any queries.
DD
20 Day Fade20 Day Fade from MarketGeeks, I like the idea!.
This indicator only looks at daily bars, regardless of what timeframe you are using.
We look for a new 20 day low that closes within the 25th percentile of it's daily range.
We also want our security to be in an uptrend.
Finally we are looking for the next day closing price (or current price) to be atleast 2% above the previous days (20 day low) high.
Once all these conditions are satisfied it produces the text bubble letting you know that it is prime to buy.
The next version I will update with short options as well.
One day I may convert this into a strategy, but probably not. If you want to, please feel free to. All I ask is that you give credit for the base code, as I have done for the idea behind this indicator.
