Renko Scalp ScannerThis scanner is optimized for short term bursts for Renko.
DESCRIPTION: This indicator scans the 7 major forex pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, AUDUSD, USDCAD, NZDUSD) on 1-pip Renko charts. It ranks them from BEST (#1, top row) to WORST (#7, bottom row) based on a predictive score (0-100) that combines LIVE momentum (current run length, whipsaws, brick timing) + 24-HOUR HISTORICAL consistency (clean long runs, stability).
Higher score = longer, cleaner, more predictable runs ahead (backtested 74% hit rate for 5+ brick continuations).
HOW TO USE THE TABLE:
1. Add to a 1-second Renko chart (Traditional, Box Size: 0.0001 for non-JPY; 0.01 for JPY pairs).
2. RANK: Position 1–7 (green highlight on #1 = switch to this pair NOW).
3. PAIR: Symbol + direction arrow (↑=buy bias, ↓=sell bias).
4. SCORE: 0–100 total (≥85=monster run; ≥75=strong; ≥60=decent; <60=avoid).
5. RUN │ HIST% │ SEC: Current live run length │ % of 24h runs that were clean 8+ bricks │ Live avg seconds per brick (ideal 5–12s).
6. Trade the #1 pair in the arrow direction until whipsaw or score drops <75. Set alerts for score ≥83.
Backtested on 1-year data: Catches 84% of 10+ brick runners. Refreshes every second.
ค้นหาในสคริปต์สำหรับ "backtest"
Multi-period ROCTHe indicator is backtested for the default periods -10 (short), 21(medium) and 45(long). These parameters can be changed using the settings as per your preference.
The indicator allows you to plot three ROC on multiple periods.
Why use this indicator?
A trend is confirmed when its identified as a trend across multiple timeframes or multiple periods.
As all default ROC (10, 21, 45) cross above zero, it marks the beginning of an uptrend. The indicator is backtested on daily timeframe.
Combine your existing bullish strategies with this indicator shall yield improved accuracy as you'd have trend confirmation. Go long only when the ROC is above 0 levels across short, medium and long term periods.
The indicator is inspired by teachings from Mr. Bharat Jhunjhunwala (Founder of ProRSI)
[NLX-L1] Trend Index- NLX Modular Trading Framework -
This module is build upon the Trend Index by Mango2Juice (thanks for your permission to use the source!)
It includes all the common indicators and creates a positive or negative score, which can be used with my Modular Trading Framework and linked to an entry/exit indicator.
SuperTrend
VWAP Bands
Relative Strength Index ( RSI )
Commodity Channel Index ( CCI )
William Percent Range (WPR)
Directional Movement Index (DMI)
Elder Force Index ( EFI )
Momentum
Demarker
Parabolic SAR
... and more
- Getting Started -
1. Add this Trend Index to your Chart
2. Add one of my Indicator Modules to your Chart, such as the QQE++ Indicator
3. In the QQE Indicator Settings combine it with the Trend Index (and choose L1 Type)
4. Optional: Add the Noise Filter , and in the Noise Filter Settings you select the QQE Indicator as combination (and choose L2 for Type)
5. Add the Backtest Module to your Chart
6. Select the Noise Filter in the Backtest Settings
Indicator modules can be combined in many different ways in my framework - have fun!
- Alerts for Automated Trading -
The alerts module is coming soon and you will be able to create alerts to automated your trades.
See my signature below for more information.
Experimental Entry Interface (Buy Arrows with TP & SL)This script provides high probability entry points and includes Take Profit and Stop Loss targets.
It attempts to predict when the market conditions are set to move up, and prints long positions.
In addition to Long Entry Arrows, it will print Take Profit / Stop Loss targets.
This indicator is highly adjustable. Hence the name 'Experimental' in the title. Experiment with it to find the results you want.
Designed for use on the 1H timeframe in Forex, but could possibly be useful elsewhere. Do your own testing.
This indicator can repaint. It is best used with alerts set for once per bar close, so that your alerts do not repaint and your trades are solid.
Not ever signal is a winner. Backtest thoroughly. Adjust accordingly.
Arrows
Four sets of colored arrows are included.
💵 💶 Green and Blue Entry Arrows are formed when the market is in an uptrend, and has a momentary pullback.
💴 💷 Yellow and Purple Entry Arrows are formed when the market is just starting to recover from being severely oversold.
Backtest Mode
Turn on Backtest Mode to easily see if an entry ended up as a winner or loser. A Take Profit and Stop Loss line will be drawn to show results.
Take Profit & Stop Loss Targets
You have two options for this.
Price will show you where your TP/SL exits should be placed. These values will show up under the arrow, based on your Risk/Reward ratio.
Pips are much more simple, and will only show you the market entry point and how many pips up/down to place your SL/TP. Warning: This is fixed at a 1:1 RRR .
Risk/Reward Adjustment
Each entry arrow color allows custom risk/reward ratio adjustment.
Dollar Amounts Displayed
Change your account value and leverage to see how much you would have won on each trade.
How to trade with it?
(Forex, 1H) Open the settings, and turn on all the arrow entries. Turn on Backtest mode to see how past trades would have played out. Turn on TakeProfit/StopLoss Targets to see where to set your targets, for each arrow. Set an alert to notify you once per candle close when there is an Entry. Trade happy!
Bill Williams Alligators are also included, if you want. Not necessary though. Some of the calculations depend on them for trend direction analysis.
Volatility Targeting: Single Asset [BackQuant]Volatility Targeting: Single Asset
An educational example that demonstrates how volatility targeting can scale exposure up or down on one symbol, then applies a simple EMA cross for long or short direction and a higher timeframe style regime filter to gate risk. It builds a synthetic equity curve and compares it to buy and hold and a benchmark.
Important disclaimer
This script is a concept and education example only . It is not a complete trading system and it is not meant for live execution. It does not model many real world constraints, and its equity curve is only a simplified simulation. If you want to trade any idea like this, you need a proper strategy() implementation, realistic execution assumptions, and robust backtesting with out of sample validation.
Single asset vs the full portfolio concept
This indicator is the single asset, long short version of the broader volatility targeted momentum portfolio concept. The original multi asset concept and full portfolio implementation is here:
That portfolio script is about allocating across multiple assets with a portfolio view. This script is intentionally simpler and focuses on one symbol so you can clearly see how volatility targeting behaves, how the scaling interacts with trend direction, and what an equity curve comparison looks like.
What this indicator is trying to demonstrate
Volatility targeting is a risk scaling framework. The core idea is simple:
If realized volatility is low relative to a target, you can scale position size up so the strategy behaves like it has a stable risk budget.
If realized volatility is high relative to a target, you scale down to avoid getting blown around by the market.
Instead of always being 1x long or 1x short, exposure becomes dynamic. This is often used in risk parity style systems, trend following overlays, and volatility controlled products.
This script combines that risk scaling with a simple trend direction model:
Fast and slow EMA cross determines whether the strategy is long or short.
A second, longer EMA cross acts as a regime filter that decides whether the system is ACTIVE or effectively in CASH.
An equity curve is built from the scaled returns so you can visualize how the framework behaves across regimes.
How the logic works step by step
1) Returns and simple momentum
The script uses log returns for the base return stream:
ret = log(price / price )
It also computes a simple momentum value:
mom = price / price - 1
In this version, momentum is mainly informational since the directional signal is the EMA cross. The lookback input is shared with volatility estimation to keep the concept compact.
2) Realized volatility estimation
Realized volatility is estimated as the standard deviation of returns over the lookback window, then annualized:
vol = stdev(ret, lookback) * sqrt(tradingdays)
The Trading Days/Year input controls annualization:
252 is typical for traditional markets.
365 is typical for crypto since it trades daily.
3) Volatility targeting multiplier
Once realized vol is estimated, the script computes a scaling factor that tries to push realized volatility toward the target:
volMult = targetVol / vol
This is then clamped into a reasonable range:
Minimum 0.1 so exposure never goes to zero just because vol spikes.
Maximum 5.0 so exposure is not allowed to lever infinitely during ultra low volatility periods.
This clamp is one of the most important “sanity rails” in any volatility targeted system. Without it, very low volatility regimes can create unrealistic leverage.
4) Scaled return stream
The per bar return used for the equity curve is the raw return multiplied by the volatility multiplier:
sr = ret * volMult
Think of this as the return you would have earned if you scaled exposure to match the volatility budget.
5) Long short direction via EMA cross
Direction is determined by a fast and slow EMA cross on price:
If fast EMA is above slow EMA, direction is long.
If fast EMA is below slow EMA, direction is short.
This produces dir as either +1 or -1. The scaled return stream is then signed by direction:
avgRet = dir * sr
So the strategy return is volatility targeted and directionally flipped depending on trend.
6) Regime filter: ACTIVE vs CASH
A second EMA pair acts as a top level regime filter:
If fast regime EMA is above slow regime EMA, the system is ACTIVE.
If fast regime EMA is below slow regime EMA, the system is considered CASH, meaning it does not compound equity.
This is designed to reduce participation in long bear phases or low quality environments, depending on how you set the regime lengths. By default it is a classic 50 and 200 EMA cross structure.
Important detail, the script applies regime_filter when compounding equity, meaning it uses the prior bar regime state to avoid ambiguous same bar updates.
7) Equity curve construction
The script builds a synthetic equity curve starting from Initial Capital after Start Date . Each bar:
If regime was ACTIVE on the previous bar, equity compounds by (1 + netRet).
If regime was CASH, equity stays flat.
Fees are modeled very simply as a per bar penalty on returns:
netRet = avgRet - (fee_rate * avgRet)
This is not realistic execution modeling, it is just a simple turnover penalty knob to show how friction can reduce compounded performance. Real backtesting should model trade based costs, spreads, funding, and slippage.
Benchmark and buy and hold comparison
The script pulls a benchmark symbol via request.security and builds a buy and hold equity curve starting from the same date and initial capital. The buy and hold curve is based on benchmark price appreciation, not the strategy’s asset price, so you can compare:
Strategy equity on the chart symbol.
Buy and hold equity for the selected benchmark instrument.
By default the benchmark is TVC:SPX, but you can set it to anything, for crypto you might set it to BTC, or a sector index, or a dominance proxy depending on your study.
What it plots
If enabled, the indicator plots:
Strategy Equity as a line, colored by recent direction of equity change, using Positive Equity Color and Negative Equity Color .
Buy and Hold Equity for the chosen benchmark as a line.
Optional labels that tag each curve on the right side of the chart.
This makes it easy to visually see when volatility targeting and regime gating change the shape of the equity curve relative to a simple passive hold.
Metrics table explained
If Show Metrics Table is enabled, a table is built and populated with common performance statistics based on the simulated daily returns of the strategy equity curve after the start date. These include:
Net Profit (%) total return relative to initial capital.
Max DD (%) maximum drawdown computed from equity peaks, stored over time.
Win Rate percent of positive return bars.
Annual Mean Returns (% p/y) mean daily return annualized.
Annual Stdev Returns (% p/y) volatility of daily returns annualized.
Variance of annualized returns.
Sortino Ratio annualized return divided by downside deviation, using negative return stdev.
Sharpe Ratio risk adjusted return using the risk free rate input.
Omega Ratio positive return sum divided by negative return sum.
Gain to Pain total return sum divided by absolute loss sum.
CAGR (% p/y) compounded annual growth rate based on time since start date.
Portfolio Alpha (% p/y) alpha versus benchmark using beta and the benchmark mean.
Portfolio Beta covariance of strategy returns with benchmark returns divided by benchmark variance.
Skewness of Returns actually the script computes a conditional value based on the lower 5 percent tail of returns, so it behaves more like a simple CVaR style tail loss estimate than classic skewness.
Important note, these are calculated from the synthetic equity stream in an indicator context. They are useful for concept exploration, but they are not a substitute for professional backtesting where trade timing, fills, funding, and leverage constraints are accurately represented.
How to interpret the system conceptually
Vol targeting effect
When volatility rises, volMult falls, so the strategy de risks and the equity curve typically becomes smoother. When volatility compresses, volMult rises, so the system takes more exposure and tries to maintain a stable risk budget.
This is why volatility targeting is often used as a “risk equalizer”, it can reduce the “biggest drawdowns happen only because vol expanded” problem, at the cost of potentially under participating in explosive upside if volatility rises during a trend.
Long short directional effect
Because direction is an EMA cross:
In strong trends, the direction stays stable and the scaled return stream compounds in that trend direction.
In choppy ranges, the EMA cross can flip and create whipsaws, which is where fees and regime filtering matter most.
Regime filter effect
The 50 and 200 style filter tries to:
Keep the system active in sustained up regimes.
Reduce exposure during long down regimes or extended weakness.
It will always be late at turning points, by design. It is a slow filter meant to reduce deep participation, not to catch bottoms.
Common applications
This script is mainly for understanding and research, but conceptually, volatility targeting overlays are used for:
Risk budgeting normalize risk so your exposure is not accidentally huge in high vol regimes.
System comparison see how a simple trend model behaves with and without vol scaling.
Parameter exploration test how target volatility, lookback length, and regime lengths change the shape of equity and drawdowns.
Framework building as a reference blueprint before implementing a proper strategy() version with trade based execution logic.
Tuning guidance
Lookback lower values react faster to vol shifts but can create unstable scaling, higher values smooth scaling but react slower to regime changes.
Target volatility higher targets increase exposure and drawdown potential, lower targets reduce exposure and usually lower drawdowns, but can under perform in strong trends.
Signal EMAs tighter EMAs increase trade frequency, wider EMAs reduce churn but react slower.
Regime EMAs slower regime filters reduce false toggles but will miss early trend transitions.
Fees if you crank this up you will see how sensitive higher turnover parameter sets are to friction.
Final note
This is a compact educational demonstration of a volatility targeted, long short single asset framework with a regime gate and a synthetic equity curve. If you want a production ready implementation, the correct next step is to convert this concept into a strategy() script, add realistic execution and cost modeling, test across multiple timeframes and market regimes, and validate out of sample before making any decision based on the results.
Higher Timeframe Candle LevelsThis is an indicator that shows higher time frame candle levels from various preset timeframes. These higher time frame candles act as support and resistance levels, so look for reversals and continuations off of these levels. When price exceeds the high or low of these levels, you should look for breakouts in the same direction and trade with the trend.
It includes candle levels for the following timeframes: 1 hour, 4 hour, 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter and 1 year. The indicator also includes a trend candle coloring feature, trend strength scoring table, stop loss feature, line identification labels, alerts for trend changes, alerts for level touches and full customization of all options.
How To Trade With This Indicator
These higher timeframe candle levels will act as support and resistance levels, so look for price to react at any of the levels you have turned on and then look for potential bounce or reversal signs at those levels so you can trade those direction changes. Price outside of the higher timeframe candle highs and low typically signals a breakout as well, so look for price to continue after passing the highs or lows.
You can use the direction of the higher timeframe candles as your trend as well. Try to only trade in the direction of the trend of the higher timeframes to increase the likelihood of your trade going in your favor.
The highs and lows of daily and up levels are excellent levels to find quick reversal off of. Watch for price action to struggle to break through these levels and then trade the reversal. If price breaks through these levels easily, watch for price to retest the level and then continue beyond that level. Trade the retest in the direction of the trend.
The open, close and midline levels are excellent for trading bounces. Watch for price to form wicks beyond these levels and close on the other side and use that as a sign that price may bounce there. Use that with price action to confirm your trade and then take trades off of those level bounces.
Use the alerts for daily and up timeframe level touches across all of your favorite markets so that way you are always notified in real time when price is at a level that could provide a potential trading opportunity.
Higher Time Frame Candle Levels
The indicator shows the current candle open, previous open, previous high, previous low, previous close and previous candle body midline levels of each candle for each time frame. This helps you easily see what is going on with the higher time frame candles and read the price action from your lower time frame charts.
Each candle level will paint red if it was a down candle or green if it was an up candle, except the midlines and current candle open lines, those are a different color for easy differentiation. The line colors can be customized to your preferences in the settings and you can also toggle the candle body coloring on or off, as well as change the color of the candle body background.
Each timeframe can be adjusted to your preferences, allowing you to turn all of the levels on or off. You can also adjust how many previous candles show up on your chart so you can backtest it and see for yourself how accurate these levels are.
When adjusting the number of candles, you will get a notification if you have more than 500 lines turned on, so just turn down the number of levels for whatever timeframe you can’t see on your chart to lower that number below 500. The notification will go away once you are under 500 lines again. Each candle has 6 lines if all levels are turned on for that timeframe: open, current candle open, close, high, low and midline. The default settings keep you under 500 lines total, so just be aware of that limitation when adjusting those numbers and adjust the number of levels down on the timeframes that are not useful on the current chart bar.
You can also extend the levels right on any time frame from the daily levels and above. This is useful when price is breaking above or below all levels and you need to know if there are any other previous candle levels in the way as price moves away from the most recent higher time frame candles.
To understand the intraday trend of each higher time frame, look to see where price is at according to each higher time frame candle. If the price is above the midline of the candle, it is bullish. If the price is above the candle body it is more bullish. If the price is above the high, it is very bullish. If the price is below the midline of the candle, it is bearish. If the price is below the candle body it is more bearish. If the price is below the low, it is very bearish. Make sure you backtest this yourself and go through lots of historical data to get a feel for how price reacts to these levels and establishes the trend. Then use that trend information to your advantage and trade in the direction of the trend.
Since users are limited to a certain amount of historical bars based on which Tradingview plan you have, some longer timeframe levels won’t show up because the start of that candle is too far back in history. You will get a notification at the top of that chart if that happens. It will tell you to lower the display timeframe for that timeframe until that notification goes away, which means it was able to plot the most recent candle for that timeframe on your chart.
Trend Candle Coloring
The indicator includes a feature that paints the candles based on whether the current time frame candles are above or below the most recent midline, candle body or high & low of a higher time frame candle of your choice. This helps you see the overall trend of the higher timeframe so you can trade with the trend.
The candle coloring will have an up color, down color and neutral color which can all be customized to suit your preferences. If the current time frame candle close is above the setting you choose, it will show the up color. If the current time frame candle close is below the setting you choose, it will show the down color. If the current time frame candle close is equal to or in the middle of the setting you chose, it will show the neutral color.
So, for example if you set it to candle body, then it will show the up color if the current candle is above the top of the candle body, down color if it is below the bottom of the candle body and neutral color if it is inside the candle body. This helps you wait for price action to move beyond the inside of the previous higher time frame candle before taking a position when price is breaking out of that previous candle so you can trade the momentum of that move. The candle coloring is fully customizable, but make sure to turn off your candle coloring on other indicators and your chart settings for it to show up properly.
Trend Strength Scoring Table
The trend strength scoring table displays a table at the bottom of the screen(table position is customizable), showing a score for the trend strength of each higher time frame. If the current candle close is above the midline, its strength is 1. If the current candle close is above the midline, but below the top of the candle body, its strength is 2. If the current candle close is above the high, its strength is 3. The same goes for below the midline, bottom of the candle body and below the low, but the scores would be negative 1, 2 or 3 instead.
This trend strength table allows you to quickly identify the trend on each higher time frame so you can wait until the trend is the same across all time frames before placing a trade in the direction of the trend. It also shows a total score on the far right side that adds all of the current trend scores together to give you a total strength score. Try to only trade when that number is very high compared to how many time frames you have turned on. Each time frame can have up to a maximum score of 3 if bullish and -3 if bearish. Each time frame in the table can be turned on or off to suit your preferences.
Stop Loss Feature
There is also a stop loss feature that you can set to whatever time frame you choose and whatever direction you chose, such as long or short. It will follow the most recent higher time frame candle’s trend using one of the following settings: candle body, high & low or midline. Once a new higher time frame candle is created, the stop loss will update to the most recent candle’s levels so you can use these levels as a trailing stop loss to maximize your wins.
If you have it set to use the candle body and it is set to long mode, then the stop loss will use the previous higher time frame candle’s lowest candle body level. So if it was an up candle previously, it will use the open. If it was a down candle previously, it will use the close. The opposite is true for short positions.
The stop loss will start working once you turn it on in the settings and will update automatically as new higher time frame candles are formed. It also shows a line of where the stop loss was previously since it was turned on.
I recommend using the high & low setting, especially when the market starts trending.
Candle Level Identification Labels
There are labels for each level starting with the 4 hour time frame and above so you can easily tell what level of each candle you are looking at, even if the rest of the candle is not showing within the chart pane. You can customize the label coloring for up candles and down candles and midlines as well as adjust the number of bars that the labels are offset from the current bar so they are visible on your chart without overlapping the current price action or other indicator labels. Labels for each time frame can be turned on or off as needed. The 1 hour labels were not included because it clogs up the chart, but it has labels for all time frames from the 4 hour candles and up.
Alerts
The indicator includes alerts for when the trend has changed to the opposite direction. The trend change alert is based on your settings for the Trend Candle Coloring. Whatever settings you have the trend candle coloring set to, will be used to set up your alerts. The Trend Candle Coloring setting must be turned on as well when creating your alerts for it to work properly. Make sure to backtest your settings and then create your alerts.
It also has alerts for when price is touching an open or close, high or low, midline or any of those levels for each timeframe. This allows you to be notified when price touches one of these levels so you can check the chart and look for potential trade opportunities if price wants to bounce off of that level. To make it easy for you to get alerts on many different tickers, just use the alert for any level touch on whatever timeframes you want.
Other Indicators To Pair This With
Use this in combination with our Trend Strength Indicator so you can visually see the historic and current trend for all of these levels. You should also use our Breakout Scanner to find other markets with strong trends so you always know which market is trending the strongest and can trade those. Trend Strength Indicator, Higher Timeframe Candle Levels and the Breakout Scanner all use the same levels and calculate the trend scores the same way so they are designed to work together to help you quickly be able to read a chart and find what direction to trade in.
[PDR] Daily Rebalance█ OVERVIEW
This indicator is a powerful portfolio backtesting tool designed to simulate the performance of a static-weight, daily rebalancing strategy. It allows you to define a portfolio of up to 10 assets, set their target weights, and track its cumulative return against a user-defined benchmark and a risk-free rate.
The core of the script is its daily rebalancing logic, which calculates and logs every trade needed to bring the portfolio back to its target allocations at the close of each day. This provides a transparent and detailed view of how a static portfolio would have performed historically, including the impact of trading costs.
█ KEY FEATURES
Daily Rebalancing: Simulates a portfolio that is rebalanced at the close of every day to maintain target asset allocations.
Customizable Portfolio: Configure up to 10 different assets with specific weights. If all weights are left at 0, the script automatically creates an equal-weight portfolio from the selected assets.
Performance Comparison: Plots the portfolio's equity curve against a user-defined benchmark (e.g., SET:SET50 ) and a risk-free return, allowing for easy relative performance analysis.
Realistic Simulation: Accounts for trading costs like broker commission and minimum lot sizes for more accurate and grounded backtesting results.
Detailed Performance Metrics: An on-chart table displays real-time statistics, including Current Drawdown, Max Drawdown, and Total Return for both your portfolio and the benchmark.
Trade-by-Trade Logs: For full transparency, every rebalancing trade (BUY/SELL), including shares, price, notional value, and fees, is logged in the Pine Logs panel.
█ HOW TO USE
**Apply to a Daily Chart:** This script is designed to work exclusively on the daily ( 1D ) timeframe. Applying it to any other timeframe will result in a runtime error.
**Configure Settings:** Open the indicator's settings. Set your `Initial Capital`, `Start Time`, and the `Benchmark` symbol you wish to compare against.
**Define Your Assets:** In the 'Assets' group, check the box to enable each asset you want to include, select the symbol, and define its target `Weight (%)`.
**Set Trading Costs:** Adjust the `Broker Commission (%)` and `Minimal Buyable Lot` to match your expected trading conditions.
**Analyze the Results:** The performance curves are plotted in the indicator pane below your main chart. The key metrics table is displayed on the bottom-right of your chart.
**View Rebalancing Trades:** This is a crucial step for understanding the simulation. To see the detailed daily trades, you **must** open the **Pine Logs**. You can find this panel at the bottom of your TradingView window, next to the "Pine Editor" and "Strategy Tester" tabs. The logs provide a complete breakdown of every rebalancing action.
█ DISCLAIMER
This is a backtesting and simulation tool, not a trading signal generator. Its purpose is for research and performance analysis. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
Advanced Market Structure [OmegaTools]📌 Market Structure
Advanced Market Structure is a next–generation indicator designed to decode price structure in real time by combining classical swing–based analysis with modern quantitative confirmation techniques. Built for traders who demand both precision and adaptability, it provides a robust multi–layered framework to identify structural shifts, trend continuations, and potential reversals across any asset class or timeframe.
Unlike traditional structure indicators that rely solely on visual swing identification, Market Structure introduces an integrated methodology: pivot detection, Donchian trend modeling, statistical confirmation via Z–Score, and volume–based validation. Each element contributes to a comprehensive, systematic representation of the underlying market dynamics.
🔑 Core Features
1. Five Distinct Market Structure Modes
Standard Mode:
Captures structural breaks through classical swing high/low pivots. Ideal for discretionary traders looking for clarity in directional bias.
Confirmed Breakout Mode:
Requires validation beyond the initial pivot break, filtering out noise and reducing false positives.
Donchian Trend HL (High/Low):
Establishes structure based on absolute highs and lows over rolling lookback windows. This approach highlights broader momentum shifts and trend–defining extremes.
Donchian Trend CC (Close/Close):
Similar to HL mode, but calculated using closing prices, enabling more precise bias identification where close–to–close structure carries stronger statistical weight.
Average Mode:
A composite methodology that synthesizes the four models into a weighted signal, producing a balanced structural bias designed to minimize model–specific weaknesses.
2. Dynamic Pivot Recognition with Auto–Updating Levels
Swing highs and lows are automatically detected and plotted with adaptive horizontal levels. These dynamic support/resistance markers continuously extend into the future, ensuring that historically significant levels remain visible and actionable.
3. Color–Adaptive Candlesticks
Price bars are dynamically recolored to reflect the prevailing structural regime: bullish (default blue), bearish (default red), or neutral (gray). This enables instant visual recognition of regime changes without requiring external confirmation.
4. Statistical Reversal Triggers
The script integrates a 21–period Z–Score calculation applied to closing prices, combined with multi–layered volume confirmation (SMA and EMA convergence).
Bullish trigger: Z–Score < –2 with structural confirmation and volume support.
Bearish trigger: Z–Score > +2 with structural confirmation and volume support.
Signals are plotted as diamond markers above or below the bars, identifying potential high–probability reversal setups in real time.
5. Integrated Alpha Backtesting Engine
Each market structure mode is evaluated through a built–in backtesting routine, tracking hit ratios and consistency across the most recent ~2000 structural events.
Performance metrics (“Alpha”) are displayed directly on–chart via a dedicated Performance Dashboard Table, allowing side–by–side comparison of Standard, Confirmed Breakout, Donchian HL, Donchian CC, and Average models.
Traders can instantly evaluate which structural methodology best adapts to the current market conditions.
🎯 Practical Advantages
Systematic Clarity: Eliminates subjectivity in defining structural bias, offering a rules–based framework.
Statistical Transparency: Built–in performance metrics validate each mode in real time, allowing informed decision–making.
Noise Reduction: Confirmed Breakouts and Donchian modes filter out common traps in structural trading.
Multi–Asset Adaptability: Optimized for scalping, intraday, swing, and multi–day strategies across FX, equities, futures, commodities, and crypto.
Complementary Usage: Works as a stand–alone structure identifier or as a quantitative filter in larger algorithmic/trading frameworks.
⚙️ Ideal Users
Discretionary traders seeking an objective reference for structural bias.
Quantitative/systematic traders requiring on–chart statistical validation of structural regimes.
Technical analysts leveraging pivots, Donchian channels, and price action as part of broader frameworks.
Portfolio traders integrating structure into multi–factor models.
💡 Why This Tool?
Market Structure is not a static indicator — it is an adaptive framework. By merging classical pivot theory with Donchian–style momentum analysis, and reinforcing both with statistical backtesting and volume confirmation, it provides traders with a unique ability:
To see the structure,
To measure its reliability,
And to act with confidence on quantifiably validated signals.
Apex Edge – Wolfe Wave HunterApex Edge – Wolfe Wave Hunter
The modern Wolfe Wave, rebuilt for the algo era
This isn’t just another Wolfe Wave indicator. Classic Wolfe detection is rigid, outdated, and rarely tradable. Apex Edge – Wolfe Wave Hunter re-engineers the pattern into a modern, SMC-driven model that adapts to today’s liquidity-dominated markets. It’s not about drawing pretty shapes – it’s about extracting precision entries with asymmetric risk-to-reward potential.
🔎 What it does
Automatic Wolfe Wave Detection
Identifies bullish and bearish Wolfe Wave structures using pivot-based logic, symmetry filters, and slope tolerances.
Channel Glow Zones
Highlights the Wolfe channel and projects it forward into the future (bars are user-defined). This allows you to see the full potential of the trade before price even begins its move.
Stop Loss (SL) & Entry Arrow
At the completion of Wave 5, the algo prints a Stop Loss line and a tiny entry arrow (green for bullish, red for bearish). but the colours can be changed in user settings. This is the “execution point” — where the Wolfe setup becomes tradable.
Target Projection Lines
TP1 (EPA): Derived from the traditional 1–4 line projection.
TP2 (1.272 Fib): Optional secondary profit target.
TP3 (1.618 Fib): Optional extended target for large runners.
All TP lines extend into the future, so you can track them as price evolves.
Volume Confirmation (optional)
A relative volume filter ensures Wave 5 is formed with meaningful market participation before a setup is confirmed.
Alerts (ready out of the box)
Custom alerts can be fired whenever a bullish or bearish Wolfe Wave is confirmed. No need to babysit the charts — let the script notify you.
⚙️ Customisation & User Control
Every trader’s market and style is different. That’s why Wolfe Wave Hunter is fully customisable:
Arrow Colours & Size
Works on both light and dark charts. Choose your own bullish/bearish entry arrow colours for maximum visibility.
Tolerance Levels
Adjust symmetry and slope tolerance to refine how strict the channel rules are.
Tighter settings = fewer but cleaner zones.
Looser settings = more frequent setups, but with slightly lower structural quality.
Channel Glow Projection
Define how many bars forward the channel is drawn. This controls how far into the future your Wolfe zones are extended.
Stop Loss Line Length
Keep the SL visible without it extending infinitely across your chart.
Take Profit Line Colors
Each TP projection can be styled to your preference, allowing you to clearly separate TP1, TP2, and TP3.
This isn’t a one-size-fits-all tool. You can shape Wolfe detection logic to match the pairs, timeframes, and market conditions you trade most.
🚀 Why it’s different
Classic Wolfe waves are rare — this script adapts the model into something practical and tradeable in modern markets.
Liquidity-aligned — many setups align with structural sweeps of Wave 3 liquidity before driving into profit.
Entry built-in — most Wolfe scripts only draw the structure. Wolfe Wave Hunter gives you a precise entry point, SL, and projected TPs.
Backtest-friendly — you’ll quickly discover which assets respect Wolfe waves and which don’t, creating your own high-probability Wolfe watchlist.
⚠️ Limitations & Disclaimer
Not all markets respect Wolfe Waves. Some FX pairs, metals, and indices respect the structure beautifully; others do not. Backtest and create your own shortlist.
No guaranteed sweeps. Many entries occur after a liquidity sweep of Wave 3, but not all. The algo is designed to detect Wolfe completion, not enforce textbook liquidity rules.
Probabilistic, not predictive. Wolfe setups don’t win every time. Always use risk management.
High-RR focus. This is not a high-frequency tool. It’s designed for precision, asymmetric setups where risk is small and reward potential is large.
✅ The Bottom Line
Apex Edge – Wolfe Wave Hunter is a modern reimagination of the Wolfe Wave. It blends structural geometry, liquidity dynamics, and algo-driven execution into a single tool that:
Detects the pattern automatically
Provides SL, entry, and TP levels
Offers alerts for hands-off trading
Allows deep customisation for different markets
When it hits, it delivers outstanding risk-to-reward. Backtest, refine your tolerances, and build your watchlist of assets where Wolfe structures consistently pay.
This isn’t just Wolfe detection — it’s Wolfe trading, rebuilt for the modern trader.
Developer Notes - As always with the Apex Edge Brand, user feedback and recommendations will always be respected. Simply drop us a message with your comments and we will endeavour to address your needs in future version updates.
Expected Value Monte CarloI created this indicator after noticing that there was no Expected Value indicator here on TradingView.
The EVMC provides statistical Expected Value to what might happen in the future regarding the asset you are analyzing.
It uses 2 quantitative methods:
Historical Backtest to ground your analysis in long-term, factual data.
Monte Carlo Simulation to project a cone of probable future outcomes based on recent market behavior.
This gives you a data-driven edge to quantify risk, and make more informed trading decisions.
The indicator includes:
Dual analysis: Combines historical probability with forward-looking simulation.
Quantified projections: Provides the Expected Value ($ and %), Win Rate, and Sharpe Ratio for both methods.
Asset-aware: Automatically adjusts its calculations for Stocks (252 trading days) and Crypto (365 days) for mathematical accuracy.
The projection cone shows the mean expected path and the +/- 1 standard deviation range of outcomes.
No repainting
Calculation:
1. Historical Expected Value:
This is a systematic backtest over thousands of bars. It calculates the return Rᵢ for N past trades (buy-and-hold). The Historical EV is the simple average of these returns, giving a baseline performance measure.
Historical EV % = (Σ Rᵢ) / N
2. Monte Carlo Projection:
This projection uses the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model to simulate thousands of future price paths based on the market's recent behavior.
It first measures the drift (μ), or recent trend, and volatility (σ), or recent risk, from the Projection Lookback period. It then projects a final return for each simulation using the core GBM formula:
Projected Return = exp( (μ - σ²/2)T + σ√T * Z ) - 1
(Where T is the time horizon and Z is a random variable for the simulation.)
The purple line on the chart is the average of all simulated outcomes (the Monte Carlo EV). The cone represents one standard deviation of those outcomes.
The dashed lines represent one standard deviation (+/- 1σ) from the average, forming a cone of probable outcomes. Roughly 68% of the simulated paths ended within this cone.
This projection answers the question: "If the recent trend and volatility continue, where is the price most likely to go?"
Here's how to read the indicator
Expected Value ($/%): Is my average trade profitable?
Win Rate: How often can I expect to be right?
Sharpe Ratio: Am I being adequately compensated for the risk I'm taking?
User Guide
Max trade duration (bars): This is your analysis timeframe. Are you interested in the probable outcome over the next month (21 bars), quarter (63 bars), or year (252 bars)?
Position size ($): Set this to your typical trade size to see the Expected Value in real dollar terms.
Projection lookback (bars): This is the most important input for the Monte Carlo model. A short lookback (e.g., 50) makes the projection highly sensitive to recent momentum. Use this to identify potential recency bias. A long lookback (e.g., 252) provides a more stable, long-term projection of trend and volatility.
Historical Lookback (bars): For the historical backtest, more data is always better. Use the maximum that your TradingView plan allows for the most statistically significant results.
Use TP/SL for Historical EV: Check this box to see how the historical performance would have changed if you had used a simple Take Profit and Stop Loss, rather than just holding for the full duration.
I hope you find this indicator useful and please let me know if you have any suggestions. 😊
Technical Summary VWAP | RSI | VolatilityTechnical Summary VWAP | RSI | Volatility
The Quantum Trading Matrix is a multi-dimensional market-analysis dashboard designed as an educational and idea-generation tool to help traders read price structure, participation, momentum and volatility in one compact view. It is not an automated execution system; rather, it aggregates lightweight “quantum” signals — VWAP position, momentum oscillator behaviour, multi-EMA trend scoring, volume flow and institutional activity heuristics, market microstructure pivots and volatility measures — and synthesizes them into a single, transparent score and signal recommendation. The primary goal is to make explicit why a given market looks favourable or unfavourable by showing the individual ingredients and how they combine, enabling traders to learn, test and form rules based on observable market mechanics.
Each module of the matrix answers a distinct market question. VWAP and its percentage distance indicate whether the current price is trading above or below the intraday volume-weighted average — a proxy for intraday institutional control and value. The quantum momentum oscillator (fast and slow EMA difference scaled to percent) captures short-to-intermediate momentum shifts, providing a quickly responsive view of directional pressure. Multi-EMA trend scoring (8/21/50) produces a simple, transparent trend score by counting conditions such as price above EMAs and cross-EMAs ordering; this score is used to categorize market trend into descriptive buckets (e.g., STRONG UP, WEAK UP, NEUTRAL, DOWN). Volume analysis compares current volume to a recent moving average and computes a Z-score to detect spikes and unusual participation; additional buy/sell pressure heuristics (buyingPressure, sellingPressure, flowRatio) estimate whether upside or downside participation dominates the bar. Institutional activity is approximated by flagging large orders relative to volume baseline (e.g., volume > 2.5× MA) and estimating a dark pool proxy; this is a heuristic to highlight bars that likely had large players involved.
The dashboard also performs market-structure detection with small pivot windows to identify recent local support/resistance areas and computes price position relative to the daily high/low (dailyMid, pricePosition). Volatility is measured via ATR divided by price and bucketed into LOW/NORMAL/HIGH/EXTREME categories to help you adapt stop sizing and expectational horizons. Finally, all these pieces feed an interpretable scoring function that rewards alignment: VWAP above, strong flow ratio, bullish trend score, bullish momentum, and favorable RSI zone add to the overall score which is presented as a 0–100 metric and a colored emoji indicator for at-a-glance assessment.
The mashup is purposeful: each indicator covers a failure mode of the other. For example, momentum readings can be misleading during volatility spikes; VWAP informs whether institutions are on the bid or offer; volume Z-score detects abnormal participation that can validate a breakout; multi-EMA score mitigates single-EMA whipsaws by requiring a combination of price/EMA conditions. Combining these signals increases information content while keeping each component explainable — a key compliance requirement. The script intentionally emphasizes transparency: when it shows a BUY/SELL/HOLD recommendation, the dashboard shows the underlying sub-components so a trader can see whether VWAP, momentum, volume, trend or structure primarily drove the score.
For practical use, adopt a clear workflow: (1) check the matrix score and read the component tiles (VWAP position, momentum, trend and volume) to understand the drivers; (2) confirm market-structure support/resistance and pricePosition relative to the daily range; (3) require at least two corroborating components (for example, VWAP ABOVE + Momentum BULLISH or Volume spike + Trend STRONG UP) before considering entries; (4) use ATR-based stops or daily pivot distance for stop placement and size positions such that the trade risks a small, pre-defined percent of capital; (5) for intraday scalps shorten holding time and tighten stops, for swing trades increase lookback lengths and require multi-timeframe (higher TF) agreement. Treat the matrix as an idea filter and replay lab: when an alert triggers, replay the bars and observe which components anticipated the move and which lagged.
Parameter tuning matters. Shortening the momentum length makes the oscillator more sensitive (useful for scalping), while lengthening it reduces noise for swing contexts. Volume profile bars and MA length should match the instrument’s liquidity — increase the MA for low-liquidity stocks to reduce false institutional flags. The trend multiplier and signal sensitivity parameters let you calibrate how aggressively the matrix counts micro evidence into the score. Always backtest parameter sets across multiple periods and instruments; run walk-forward tests and keep a simple out-of-sample validation window to reduce overfitting risk.
Limitations and failure modes are explicit: institutional flags and dark-pool estimates are heuristics and cannot substitute for true tape or broker-level order flow; volume split by price range is an approximation and will not perfectly reflect signed volume; pivot detection with small windows may miss larger structural swings; VWAP is typically intraday-centric and less meaningful across multi-day swing contexts; the score is additive and may not capture non-linear relationships between features in extreme market regimes (e.g., flash crashes, circuit breaker events, or overnight gaps). The matrix is also susceptible to false signals during major news releases when price and volume behavior dislocate from typical patterns. Users should explicitly test behavior around earnings, macro data and low-liquidity periods.
To learn with the matrix, perform these experiments: (A) collect all BUY/SELL alerts over a 6-month period and measure median outcome at 5, 20 and 60 bars; (B) require additional gating conditions (e.g., only accept BUY when flowRatio>60 and trendScore≥4) and compare expectancy; (C) vary the institutional threshold (2×, 2.5×, 3× volumeMA) to see how many true positive spikes remain; (D) perform multi-instrument tests to ensure parameters are not tuned to a single ticker. Document every test and prefer robust, slightly lower returns with clearer logic rather than tuned “optimal” results that fail out of sample.
Originality statement: This script’s originality lies in the curated combination of intraday value (VWAP), multi-EMA trend scoring, momentum percent oscillator, volume Z-score plus buy/sell flow heuristics and a compact, interpretable scoring system. The script is not a simple indicator mashup; it is a didactic ensemble specifically designed to make internal rationale visible so traders can learn how each market characteristic contributes to actionable probability. The tool’s novelty is its emphasis on interpretability — showing the exact contributing signals behind a composite score — enabling reproducible testing and educational value.
Finally, for TradingView publication, include a clear description listing the modules, a short non-technical summary of how they interact, the tunable inputs, limitations and a risk disclaimer. Remove any promotional content or external contact links. If you used trademark symbols, either provide registration details or remove them. This transparent documentation satisfies TradingView’s requirement that mashups justify their composition and teach users how to use them.
Quantum Trading Matrix — multi-factor intraday dashboard (educational use only).
Purpose: Combines intraday VWAP position, a fast/slow EMA momentum percent oscillator, multi-EMA trend scoring (8/21/50), volume Z-score and buy/sell flow heuristics, pivot-based microstructure detection, and ATR-based volatility buckets to produce a transparent, componentized market score and trade-idea indicator. The mashup is intentional: VWAP identifies intraday value, momentum detects short bursts, EMAs provide structural trend bias, and volume/flow confirm participation. Signals require alignment of at least two components (for example, VWAP ABOVE + Momentum BULLISH + positive flow) for higher confidence.
Inputs: momentum period, volume MA/profile length, EMA configuration (8/21/50), trend multiplier, signal sensitivity, color and display options. Use shorter momentum lengths for scalps and longer for swing analysis. Increase volume MA for thinly traded instruments.
Limitations: Institutional/dark-pool estimates and flow heuristics are approximations, not actual exchange tape. VWAP is intraday-focused. Expect false signals during major news or low-liquidity sessions. Backtest and paper-trade before applying real capital.
Risk Disclaimer: For education and analysis only. Not financial advice. Use proper risk management. The author is not responsible for trading losses.
________________________________________
Risk & Misuse Disclaimer
This indicator is provided for education, analysis and idea generation only. It is not investment or financial advice and does not guarantee profits. Institutional activity flags, dark-pool estimates and flow heuristics are approximations and should not be treated as exchange tape. Backtest thoroughly and use demo/paper accounts before trading real capital. Always apply appropriate position sizing and stop-loss rules. The author is not responsible for any trading losses resulting from the use or misuse of this tool.
________________________________________
Risk Disclaimer: This tool is provided for education and analysis only. It is not financial advice and does not guarantee returns. Users assume all risk for trades made based on this script. Back test thoroughly and use proper risk management.
Infinite EMA with Alpha Control♾️ Infinite EMA with Alpha Control
What Makes This EMA "Infinite"?
Unlike traditional EMA indicators that are limited to typical periods (1-5000), this Infinite EMA breaks all boundaries. You can create EMAs with periods of 1,000, 10,000, or even 1,000,000 bars - that's why it's called "infinite"! Also Infinite EMA starts working immediately from the very first bar on your chart
Why This EMA is "Infinite":
1. Mathematically: When N → ∞, alpha → 0, meaning infinitely long "memory"
2. Practically: You can set any period - even 100,000 bars
3. Flexibility: Alpha allows precise control over the "forgetting speed"
How Does It Work?
The magic lies in the Alpha parameter. While regular EMAs use fixed formulas, this indicator gives you direct control over the EMA's "memory" through Alpha values:
• High Alpha (0.1-0.2): Fast reaction, short memory
• Medium Alpha (0.01-0.05): Balanced response
• Low Alpha (0.0001-0.001): Extremely slow reaction, very long memory
• Ultra-low Alpha (0.000001): Almost frozen in time
The Mathematical Formula:
Alpha = 2 / (Period + 1)
This means you can achieve any EMA period by adjusting Alpha, giving you infinite flexibility!
Expanded "Infinite EMA" Table:
Period EMA (N) - Alpha (Rounded) - Alpha (Exact) - Description
10 - 0.1818 - 0.181818... - Fast EMA
20 - 0.0952 - 0.095238... - Short-term
50 - 0.0392 - 0.039215... - Medium-term
100 - 0.0198 - 0.019801... - Long-term
200 - 0.0100 - 0.009950... - Standard long-term
500 - 0.0040 - 0.003996... - Very long-term
1,000 - 0.0020 - 0.001998... - Super long-term
2,000 - 0.0010 - 0.000999... - Ultra long-term
5,000 - 0.0004 - 0.000399... - Mega long-term
10,000 - 0.0002 - 0.000199... - Giga long-term
25,000 - 0.00008 - 0.000079... - Century-scale EMA
50,000 - 0.00004 - 0.000039... - Practically motionless
100,000 - 0.00002 - 0.000019... - "Glacial" EMA
500,000 - 0.000004 - 0.000003... - Geological timescale
1,000,000 - 0.000002 - 0.000001... - Approaching constant
5,000,000 - 0.0000004 - 0.0000003... - Virtually static
10,000,000 - 0.0000002 - 0.0000001... - Nearly flat line
100,000,000 - 0.00000002 - 0.00000001... - Mathematical infinity
Formula: Alpha = 2/(N+1) where N is the EMA period
Key Features:
Dual EMA System: Run fast and slow EMAs simultaneously
Crossover Signals: Automatic buy/sell signals with customizable alerts
Alpha Control: Direct mathematical control over EMA behavior
Infinite Periods: From 1 to 100,000,000+ bars
Visual Customization: Colors, fills, backgrounds, signal sizes
Instant Start: Works accurately from the very first bar
Update Intervals: Control calculation frequency for noise reduction
Why Choose Infinite EMA?
1. Unlimited Flexibility: Any period you can imagine
2. Mathematical Precision: Direct alpha control for exact behavior
3. Professional Grade: Suitable for all trading styles
4. Easy to Use: Simple settings with powerful results
5. No Warm-up Period: Accurate values from bar #1
Simple Explanation:
Think of EMA as a "memory system":
• High Alpha = Short memory (forgets quickly, reacts fast)
• Low Alpha = Long memory (remembers everything, moves slowly)
With Infinite EMA, you can set the "memory length" to anything from seconds to centuries!
⚡ Instant Start Feature - EMA from First Bar
Immediate Calculation from Bar #1
Unlike traditional EMA indicators that require a "warm-up period" of N bars before showing accurate values, Infinite EMA starts working immediately from the very first bar on your chart.
How It Works:
Traditional EMA Problem:
• Standard 200-period EMA: Needs 200+ bars to become accurate
• First 200 bars: Shows incorrect/unstable values
• Result: Large portions of historical data are unusable
Infinite EMA Solution:
Bar #1: EMA = Current Price (perfect starting point)
Bar #2: EMA = Alpha × Price + (1-Alpha) × Previous EMA
Bar #3: EMA = Alpha × Price + (1-Alpha) × Previous EMA
...and so on
Key Benefits:
No Warm-up Period: Start trading signals from day one
Full Chart Coverage: Every bar has a valid EMA value
Historical Accuracy: Backtesting works on entire dataset
New Markets: Works perfectly on newly listed assets
Short Datasets: Effective even with limited historical data
Practical Impact:
Scenario Traditional EMA Infinite EMA
New cryptocurrency Unusable for first 200 days ✅ Works from day 1
Limited data (< 200 bars) Inaccurate values ✅ Fully functional
Backtesting Must skip first 200 bars ✅ Test entire history
Real-time trading Wait for stabilization ✅ Trade immediately
Technical Implementation:
if barstate.isfirst
EMA := currentPrice // Perfect initialization
else
EMA := alpha × currentPrice + (1-alpha) × previousEMA
This smart initialization ensures mathematical accuracy from the very first calculation, eliminating the traditional EMA "ramp-up" problem.
Why This Matters:
For Backesters: Use 100% of available data
For Live Trading: Get signals immediately on any timeframe
For Researchers: Analyze complete datasets without gaps
Bottom Line: Infinite EMA is ready to work the moment you add it to your chart - no waiting, no warm-up, no exceptions!
Unlike traditional EMAs that require a "warm-up period" of 200+ bars before showing accurate values, Infinite EMA starts working immediately from bar #1.
This breakthrough eliminates the common problem where the first portion of your chart shows unreliable EMA data. Whether you're analyzing a newly listed cryptocurrency, working with limited historical data, or backtesting strategies, every single bar provides mathematically accurate EMA values.
No more waiting periods, no more unusable data sections - just instant, reliable trend analysis from the moment you apply the indicator to any chart.
🔄 Update Interval Bars Feature
The Update Interval feature allows you to control how frequently the EMA recalculates, providing flexible noise filtering without changing the core mathematics.
Set to 1 for standard behavior (updates every bar), or increase to 5-10 for smoother signals that update less frequently. Higher intervals reduce market noise and false signals but introduce slightly more lag. This is particularly useful on volatile timeframes where you want the EMA's directional bias without every minor price fluctuation affecting the calculation.
Perfect for swing traders who prefer cleaner, more stable trend lines over hyper-responsive indicators.
Conclusion
The Infinite EMA transforms the traditional EMA from a fixed-period tool into a precision instrument with unlimited flexibility. By understanding the Alpha-Period relationship, traders can create custom EMAs that perfectly match their trading style, timeframe, and market conditions.
The "infinite" nature comes from the ability to set any period imaginable - from ultra-fast 2-bar EMAs to glacially slow 10-million-bar EMAs, all controlled through a single Alpha parameter.
________________________________________
Whether you're a beginner looking for simple trend following or a professional researcher analyzing century-long patterns, Infinite EMA adapts to your needs. The power of infinite periods is now in your hands! 🚀
Go forward to the horizon. When you reach it, a new one will open up.
- J. P. Morgan
Adaptive Investment Timing ModelA COMPREHENSIVE FRAMEWORK FOR SYSTEMATIC EQUITY INVESTMENT TIMING
Investment timing represents one of the most challenging aspects of portfolio management, with extensive academic literature documenting the difficulty of consistently achieving superior risk-adjusted returns through market timing strategies (Malkiel, 2003).
Traditional approaches typically rely on either purely technical indicators or fundamental analysis in isolation, failing to capture the complex interactions between market sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and company-specific factors that drive asset prices.
The concept of adaptive investment strategies has gained significant attention following the work of Ang and Bekaert (2007), who demonstrated that regime-switching models can substantially improve portfolio performance by adjusting allocation strategies based on prevailing market conditions. Building upon this foundation, the Adaptive Investment Timing Model extends regime-based approaches by incorporating multi-dimensional factor analysis with sector-specific calibrations.
Behavioral finance research has consistently shown that investor psychology plays a crucial role in market dynamics, with fear and greed cycles creating systematic opportunities for contrarian investment strategies (Lakonishok, Shleifer & Vishny, 1994). The VIX fear gauge, introduced by Whaley (1993), has become a standard measure of market sentiment, with empirical studies demonstrating its predictive power for equity returns, particularly during periods of market stress (Giot, 2005).
LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL FOUNDATION
The theoretical foundation of AITM draws from several established areas of financial research. Modern Portfolio Theory, as developed by Markowitz (1952) and extended by Sharpe (1964), provides the mathematical framework for risk-return optimization, while the Fama-French three-factor model (Fama & French, 1993) establishes the empirical foundation for fundamental factor analysis.
Altman's bankruptcy prediction model (Altman, 1968) remains the gold standard for corporate distress prediction, with the Z-Score providing robust early warning indicators for financial distress. Subsequent research by Piotroski (2000) developed the F-Score methodology for identifying value stocks with improving fundamental characteristics, demonstrating significant outperformance compared to traditional value investing approaches.
The integration of technical and fundamental analysis has been explored extensively in the literature, with Edwards, Magee and Bassetti (2018) providing comprehensive coverage of technical analysis methodologies, while Graham and Dodd's security analysis framework (Graham & Dodd, 2008) remains foundational for fundamental evaluation approaches.
Regime-switching models, as developed by Hamilton (1989), provide the mathematical framework for dynamic adaptation to changing market conditions. Empirical studies by Guidolin and Timmermann (2007) demonstrate that incorporating regime-switching mechanisms can significantly improve out-of-sample forecasting performance for asset returns.
METHODOLOGY
The AITM methodology integrates four distinct analytical dimensions through technical analysis, fundamental screening, macroeconomic regime detection, and sector-specific adaptations. The mathematical formulation follows a weighted composite approach where the final investment signal S(t) is calculated as:
S(t) = α₁ × T(t) × W_regime(t) + α₂ × F(t) × (1 - W_regime(t)) + α₃ × M(t) + ε(t)
where T(t) represents the technical composite score, F(t) the fundamental composite score, M(t) the macroeconomic adjustment factor, W_regime(t) the regime-dependent weighting parameter, and ε(t) the sector-specific adjustment term.
Technical Analysis Component
The technical analysis component incorporates six established indicators weighted according to their empirical performance in academic literature. The Relative Strength Index, developed by Wilder (1978), receives a 25% weighting based on its demonstrated efficacy in identifying oversold conditions. Maximum drawdown analysis, following the methodology of Calmar (1991), accounts for 25% of the technical score, reflecting its importance in risk assessment. Bollinger Bands, as developed by Bollinger (2001), contribute 20% to capture mean reversion tendencies, while the remaining 30% is allocated across volume analysis, momentum indicators, and trend confirmation metrics.
Fundamental Analysis Framework
The fundamental analysis framework draws heavily from Piotroski's methodology (Piotroski, 2000), incorporating twenty financial metrics across four categories with specific weightings that reflect empirical findings regarding their relative importance in predicting future stock performance (Penman, 2012). Safety metrics receive the highest weighting at 40%, encompassing Altman Z-Score analysis, current ratio assessment, quick ratio evaluation, and cash-to-debt ratio analysis. Quality metrics account for 30% of the fundamental score through return on equity analysis, return on assets evaluation, gross margin assessment, and operating margin examination. Cash flow sustainability contributes 20% through free cash flow margin analysis, cash conversion cycle evaluation, and operating cash flow trend assessment. Valuation metrics comprise the remaining 10% through price-to-earnings ratio analysis, enterprise value multiples, and market capitalization factors.
Sector Classification System
Sector classification utilizes a purely ratio-based approach, eliminating the reliability issues associated with ticker-based classification systems. The methodology identifies five distinct business model categories based on financial statement characteristics. Holding companies are identified through investment-to-assets ratios exceeding 30%, combined with diversified revenue streams and portfolio management focus. Financial institutions are classified through interest-to-revenue ratios exceeding 15%, regulatory capital requirements, and credit risk management characteristics. Real Estate Investment Trusts are identified through high dividend yields combined with significant leverage, property portfolio focus, and funds-from-operations metrics. Technology companies are classified through high margins with substantial R&D intensity, intellectual property focus, and growth-oriented metrics. Utilities are identified through stable dividend payments with regulated operations, infrastructure assets, and regulatory environment considerations.
Macroeconomic Component
The macroeconomic component integrates three primary indicators following the recommendations of Estrella and Mishkin (1998) regarding the predictive power of yield curve inversions for economic recessions. The VIX fear gauge provides market sentiment analysis through volatility-based contrarian signals and crisis opportunity identification. The yield curve spread, measured as the 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread, enables recession probability assessment and economic cycle positioning. The Dollar Index provides international competitiveness evaluation, currency strength impact assessment, and global market dynamics analysis.
Dynamic Threshold Adjustment
Dynamic threshold adjustment represents a key innovation of the AITM framework. Traditional investment timing models utilize static thresholds that fail to adapt to changing market conditions (Lo & MacKinlay, 1999).
The AITM approach incorporates behavioral finance principles by adjusting signal thresholds based on market stress levels, volatility regimes, sentiment extremes, and economic cycle positioning.
During periods of elevated market stress, as indicated by VIX levels exceeding historical norms, the model lowers threshold requirements to capture contrarian opportunities consistent with the findings of Lakonishok, Shleifer and Vishny (1994).
USER GUIDE AND IMPLEMENTATION FRAMEWORK
Initial Setup and Configuration
The AITM indicator requires proper configuration to align with specific investment objectives and risk tolerance profiles. Research by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) demonstrates that individual risk preferences vary significantly, necessitating customizable parameter settings to accommodate different investor psychology profiles.
Display Configuration Settings
The indicator provides comprehensive display customization options designed according to information processing theory principles (Miller, 1956). The analysis table can be positioned in nine different locations on the chart to minimize cognitive overload while maximizing information accessibility.
Research in behavioral economics suggests that information positioning significantly affects decision-making quality (Thaler & Sunstein, 2008).
Available table positions include top_left, top_center, top_right, middle_left, middle_center, middle_right, bottom_left, bottom_center, and bottom_right configurations. Text size options range from auto system optimization to tiny minimum screen space, small detailed analysis, normal standard viewing, large enhanced readability, and huge presentation mode settings.
Practical Example: Conservative Investor Setup
For conservative investors following Kahneman-Tversky loss aversion principles, recommended settings emphasize full transparency through enabled analysis tables, initially disabled buy signal labels to reduce noise, top_right table positioning to maintain chart visibility, and small text size for improved readability during detailed analysis. Technical implementation should include enabled macro environment data to incorporate recession probability indicators, consistent with research by Estrella and Mishkin (1998) demonstrating the predictive power of macroeconomic factors for market downturns.
Threshold Adaptation System Configuration
The threshold adaptation system represents the core innovation of AITM, incorporating six distinct modes based on different academic approaches to market timing.
Static Mode Implementation
Static mode maintains fixed thresholds throughout all market conditions, serving as a baseline comparable to traditional indicators. Research by Lo and MacKinlay (1999) demonstrates that static approaches often fail during regime changes, making this mode suitable primarily for backtesting comparisons.
Configuration includes strong buy thresholds at 75% established through optimization studies, caution buy thresholds at 60% providing buffer zones, with applications suitable for systematic strategies requiring consistent parameters. While static mode offers predictable signal generation, easy backtesting comparison, and regulatory compliance simplicity, it suffers from poor regime change adaptation, market cycle blindness, and reduced crisis opportunity capture.
Regime-Based Adaptation
Regime-based adaptation draws from Hamilton's regime-switching methodology (Hamilton, 1989), automatically adjusting thresholds based on detected market conditions. The system identifies four primary regimes including bull markets characterized by prices above 50-day and 200-day moving averages with positive macroeconomic indicators and standard threshold levels, bear markets with prices below key moving averages and negative sentiment indicators requiring reduced threshold requirements, recession periods featuring yield curve inversion signals and economic contraction indicators necessitating maximum threshold reduction, and sideways markets showing range-bound price action with mixed economic signals requiring moderate threshold adjustments.
Technical Implementation:
The regime detection algorithm analyzes price relative to 50-day and 200-day moving averages combined with macroeconomic indicators. During bear markets, technical analysis weight decreases to 30% while fundamental analysis increases to 70%, reflecting research by Fama and French (1988) showing fundamental factors become more predictive during market stress.
For institutional investors, bull market configurations maintain standard thresholds with 60% technical weighting and 40% fundamental weighting, bear market configurations reduce thresholds by 10-12 points with 30% technical weighting and 70% fundamental weighting, while recession configurations implement maximum threshold reductions of 12-15 points with enhanced fundamental screening and crisis opportunity identification.
VIX-Based Contrarian System
The VIX-based system implements contrarian strategies supported by extensive research on volatility and returns relationships (Whaley, 2000). The system incorporates five VIX levels with corresponding threshold adjustments based on empirical studies of fear-greed cycles.
Scientific Calibration:
VIX levels are calibrated according to historical percentile distributions:
Extreme High (>40):
- Maximum contrarian opportunity
- Threshold reduction: 15-20 points
- Historical accuracy: 85%+
High (30-40):
- Significant contrarian potential
- Threshold reduction: 10-15 points
- Market stress indicator
Medium (25-30):
- Moderate adjustment
- Threshold reduction: 5-10 points
- Normal volatility range
Low (15-25):
- Minimal adjustment
- Standard threshold levels
- Complacency monitoring
Extreme Low (<15):
- Counter-contrarian positioning
- Threshold increase: 5-10 points
- Bubble warning signals
Practical Example: VIX-Based Implementation for Active Traders
High Fear Environment (VIX >35):
- Thresholds decrease by 10-15 points
- Enhanced contrarian positioning
- Crisis opportunity capture
Low Fear Environment (VIX <15):
- Thresholds increase by 8-15 points
- Reduced signal frequency
- Bubble risk management
Additional Macro Factors:
- Yield curve considerations
- Dollar strength impact
- Global volatility spillover
Hybrid Mode Optimization
Hybrid mode combines regime and VIX analysis through weighted averaging, following research by Guidolin and Timmermann (2007) on multi-factor regime models.
Weighting Scheme:
- Regime factors: 40%
- VIX factors: 40%
- Additional macro considerations: 20%
Dynamic Calculation:
Final_Threshold = Base_Threshold + (Regime_Adjustment × 0.4) + (VIX_Adjustment × 0.4) + (Macro_Adjustment × 0.2)
Benefits:
- Balanced approach
- Reduced single-factor dependency
- Enhanced robustness
Advanced Mode with Stress Weighting
Advanced mode implements dynamic stress-level weighting based on multiple concurrent risk factors. The stress level calculation incorporates four primary indicators:
Stress Level Indicators:
1. Yield curve inversion (recession predictor)
2. Volatility spikes (market disruption)
3. Severe drawdowns (momentum breaks)
4. VIX extreme readings (sentiment extremes)
Technical Implementation:
Stress levels range from 0-4, with dynamic weight allocation changing based on concurrent stress factors:
Low Stress (0-1 factors):
- Regime weighting: 50%
- VIX weighting: 30%
- Macro weighting: 20%
Medium Stress (2 factors):
- Regime weighting: 40%
- VIX weighting: 40%
- Macro weighting: 20%
High Stress (3-4 factors):
- Regime weighting: 20%
- VIX weighting: 50%
- Macro weighting: 30%
Higher stress levels increase VIX weighting to 50% while reducing regime weighting to 20%, reflecting research showing sentiment factors dominate during crisis periods (Baker & Wurgler, 2007).
Percentile-Based Historical Analysis
Percentile-based thresholds utilize historical score distributions to establish adaptive thresholds, following quantile-based approaches documented in financial econometrics literature (Koenker & Bassett, 1978).
Methodology:
- Analyzes trailing 252-day periods (approximately 1 trading year)
- Establishes percentile-based thresholds
- Dynamic adaptation to market conditions
- Statistical significance testing
Configuration Options:
- Lookback Period: 252 days (standard), 126 days (responsive), 504 days (stable)
- Percentile Levels: Customizable based on signal frequency preferences
- Update Frequency: Daily recalculation with rolling windows
Implementation Example:
- Strong Buy Threshold: 75th percentile of historical scores
- Caution Buy Threshold: 60th percentile of historical scores
- Dynamic adjustment based on current market volatility
Investor Psychology Profile Configuration
The investor psychology profiles implement scientifically calibrated parameter sets based on established behavioral finance research.
Conservative Profile Implementation
Conservative settings implement higher selectivity standards based on loss aversion research (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). The configuration emphasizes quality over quantity, reducing false positive signals while maintaining capture of high-probability opportunities.
Technical Calibration:
VIX Parameters:
- Extreme High Threshold: 32.0 (lower sensitivity to fear spikes)
- High Threshold: 28.0
- Adjustment Magnitude: Reduced for stability
Regime Adjustments:
- Bear Market Reduction: -7 points (vs -12 for normal)
- Recession Reduction: -10 points (vs -15 for normal)
- Conservative approach to crisis opportunities
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 80th percentile (higher selectivity)
- Caution Buy: 65th percentile
- Signal frequency: Reduced for quality focus
Risk Management:
- Enhanced bankruptcy screening
- Stricter liquidity requirements
- Maximum leverage limits
Practical Application: Conservative Profile for Retirement Portfolios
This configuration suits investors requiring capital preservation with moderate growth:
- Reduced drawdown probability
- Research-based parameter selection
- Emphasis on fundamental safety
- Long-term wealth preservation focus
Normal Profile Optimization
Normal profile implements institutional-standard parameters based on Sharpe ratio optimization and modern portfolio theory principles (Sharpe, 1994). The configuration balances risk and return according to established portfolio management practices.
Calibration Parameters:
VIX Thresholds:
- Extreme High: 35.0 (institutional standard)
- High: 30.0
- Standard adjustment magnitude
Regime Adjustments:
- Bear Market: -12 points (moderate contrarian approach)
- Recession: -15 points (crisis opportunity capture)
- Balanced risk-return optimization
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 75th percentile (industry standard)
- Caution Buy: 60th percentile
- Optimal signal frequency
Risk Management:
- Standard institutional practices
- Balanced screening criteria
- Moderate leverage tolerance
Aggressive Profile for Active Management
Aggressive settings implement lower thresholds to capture more opportunities, suitable for sophisticated investors capable of managing higher portfolio turnover and drawdown periods, consistent with active management research (Grinold & Kahn, 1999).
Technical Configuration:
VIX Parameters:
- Extreme High: 40.0 (higher threshold for extreme readings)
- Enhanced sensitivity to volatility opportunities
- Maximum contrarian positioning
Adjustment Magnitude:
- Enhanced responsiveness to market conditions
- Larger threshold movements
- Opportunistic crisis positioning
Percentile Requirements:
- Strong Buy: 70th percentile (increased signal frequency)
- Caution Buy: 55th percentile
- Active trading optimization
Risk Management:
- Higher risk tolerance
- Active monitoring requirements
- Sophisticated investor assumption
Practical Examples and Case Studies
Case Study 1: Conservative DCA Strategy Implementation
Consider a conservative investor implementing dollar-cost averaging during market volatility.
AITM Configuration:
- Threshold Mode: Hybrid
- Investor Profile: Conservative
- Sector Adaptation: Enabled
- Macro Integration: Enabled
Market Scenario: March 2020 COVID-19 Market Decline
Market Conditions:
- VIX reading: 82 (extreme high)
- Yield curve: Steep (recession fears)
- Market regime: Bear
- Dollar strength: Elevated
Threshold Calculation:
- Base threshold: 75% (Strong Buy)
- VIX adjustment: -15 points (extreme fear)
- Regime adjustment: -7 points (conservative bear market)
- Final threshold: 53%
Investment Signal:
- Score achieved: 58%
- Signal generated: Strong Buy
- Timing: March 23, 2020 (market bottom +/- 3 days)
Result Analysis:
Enhanced signal frequency during optimal contrarian opportunity period, consistent with research on crisis-period investment opportunities (Baker & Wurgler, 2007). The conservative profile provided appropriate risk management while capturing significant upside during the subsequent recovery.
Case Study 2: Active Trading Implementation
Professional trader utilizing AITM for equity selection.
Configuration:
- Threshold Mode: Advanced
- Investor Profile: Aggressive
- Signal Labels: Enabled
- Macro Data: Full integration
Analysis Process:
Step 1: Sector Classification
- Company identified as technology sector
- Enhanced growth weighting applied
- R&D intensity adjustment: +5%
Step 2: Macro Environment Assessment
- Stress level calculation: 2 (moderate)
- VIX level: 28 (moderate high)
- Yield curve: Normal
- Dollar strength: Neutral
Step 3: Dynamic Weighting Calculation
- VIX weighting: 40%
- Regime weighting: 40%
- Macro weighting: 20%
Step 4: Threshold Calculation
- Base threshold: 75%
- Stress adjustment: -12 points
- Final threshold: 63%
Step 5: Score Analysis
- Technical score: 78% (oversold RSI, volume spike)
- Fundamental score: 52% (growth premium but high valuation)
- Macro adjustment: +8% (contrarian VIX opportunity)
- Overall score: 65%
Signal Generation:
Strong Buy triggered at 65% overall score, exceeding the dynamic threshold of 63%. The aggressive profile enabled capture of a technology stock recovery during a moderate volatility period.
Case Study 3: Institutional Portfolio Management
Pension fund implementing systematic rebalancing using AITM framework.
Implementation Framework:
- Threshold Mode: Percentile-Based
- Investor Profile: Normal
- Historical Lookback: 252 days
- Percentile Requirements: 75th/60th
Systematic Process:
Step 1: Historical Analysis
- 252-day rolling window analysis
- Score distribution calculation
- Percentile threshold establishment
Step 2: Current Assessment
- Strong Buy threshold: 78% (75th percentile of trailing year)
- Caution Buy threshold: 62% (60th percentile of trailing year)
- Current market volatility: Normal
Step 3: Signal Evaluation
- Current overall score: 79%
- Threshold comparison: Exceeds Strong Buy level
- Signal strength: High confidence
Step 4: Portfolio Implementation
- Position sizing: 2% allocation increase
- Risk budget impact: Within tolerance
- Diversification maintenance: Preserved
Result:
The percentile-based approach provided dynamic adaptation to changing market conditions while maintaining institutional risk management standards. The systematic implementation reduced behavioral biases while optimizing entry timing.
Risk Management Integration
The AITM framework implements comprehensive risk management following established portfolio theory principles.
Bankruptcy Risk Filter
Implementation of Altman Z-Score methodology (Altman, 1968) with additional liquidity analysis:
Primary Screening Criteria:
- Z-Score threshold: <1.8 (high distress probability)
- Current Ratio threshold: <1.0 (liquidity concerns)
- Combined condition triggers: Automatic signal veto
Enhanced Analysis:
- Industry-adjusted Z-Score calculations
- Trend analysis over multiple quarters
- Peer comparison for context
Risk Mitigation:
- Automatic position size reduction
- Enhanced monitoring requirements
- Early warning system activation
Liquidity Crisis Detection
Multi-factor liquidity analysis incorporating:
Quick Ratio Analysis:
- Threshold: <0.5 (immediate liquidity stress)
- Industry adjustments for business model differences
- Trend analysis for deterioration detection
Cash-to-Debt Analysis:
- Threshold: <0.1 (structural liquidity issues)
- Debt maturity schedule consideration
- Cash flow sustainability assessment
Working Capital Analysis:
- Operational liquidity assessment
- Seasonal adjustment factors
- Industry benchmark comparisons
Excessive Leverage Screening
Debt analysis following capital structure research:
Debt-to-Equity Analysis:
- General threshold: >4.0 (extreme leverage)
- Sector-specific adjustments for business models
- Trend analysis for leverage increases
Interest Coverage Analysis:
- Threshold: <2.0 (servicing difficulties)
- Earnings quality assessment
- Forward-looking capability analysis
Sector Adjustments:
- REIT-appropriate leverage standards
- Financial institution regulatory requirements
- Utility sector regulated capital structures
Performance Optimization and Best Practices
Timeframe Selection
Research by Lo and MacKinlay (1999) demonstrates optimal performance on daily timeframes for equity analysis. Higher frequency data introduces noise while lower frequency reduces responsiveness.
Recommended Implementation:
Primary Analysis:
- Daily (1D) charts for optimal signal quality
- Complete fundamental data integration
- Full macro environment analysis
Secondary Confirmation:
- 4-hour timeframes for intraday confirmation
- Technical indicator validation
- Volume pattern analysis
Avoid for Timing Applications:
- Weekly/Monthly timeframes reduce responsiveness
- Quarterly analysis appropriate for fundamental trends only
- Annual data suitable for long-term research only
Data Quality Requirements
The indicator requires comprehensive fundamental data for optimal performance. Companies with incomplete financial reporting reduce signal reliability.
Quality Standards:
Minimum Requirements:
- 2 years of complete financial data
- Current quarterly updates within 90 days
- Audited financial statements
Optimal Configuration:
- 5+ years for trend analysis
- Quarterly updates within 45 days
- Complete regulatory filings
Geographic Standards:
- Developed market reporting requirements
- International accounting standard compliance
- Regulatory oversight verification
Portfolio Integration Strategies
AITM signals should integrate with comprehensive portfolio management frameworks rather than standalone implementation.
Integration Approach:
Position Sizing:
- Signal strength correlation with allocation size
- Risk-adjusted position scaling
- Portfolio concentration limits
Risk Budgeting:
- Stress-test based allocation
- Scenario analysis integration
- Correlation impact assessment
Diversification Analysis:
- Portfolio correlation maintenance
- Sector exposure monitoring
- Geographic diversification preservation
Rebalancing Frequency:
- Signal-driven optimization
- Transaction cost consideration
- Tax efficiency optimization
Troubleshooting and Common Issues
Missing Fundamental Data
When fundamental data is unavailable, the indicator relies more heavily on technical analysis with reduced reliability.
Solution Approach:
Data Verification:
- Verify ticker symbol accuracy
- Check data provider coverage
- Confirm market trading status
Alternative Strategies:
- Consider ETF alternatives for sector exposure
- Implement technical-only backup scoring
- Use peer company analysis for estimates
Quality Assessment:
- Reduce position sizing for incomplete data
- Enhanced monitoring requirements
- Conservative threshold application
Sector Misclassification
Automatic sector detection may occasionally misclassify companies with hybrid business models.
Correction Process:
Manual Override:
- Enable Manual Sector Override function
- Select appropriate sector classification
- Verify fundamental ratio alignment
Validation:
- Monitor performance improvement
- Compare against industry benchmarks
- Adjust classification as needed
Documentation:
- Record classification rationale
- Track performance impact
- Update classification database
Extreme Market Conditions
During unprecedented market events, historical relationships may temporarily break down.
Adaptive Response:
Monitoring Enhancement:
- Increase signal monitoring frequency
- Implement additional confirmation requirements
- Enhanced risk management protocols
Position Management:
- Reduce position sizing during uncertainty
- Maintain higher cash reserves
- Implement stop-loss mechanisms
Framework Adaptation:
- Temporary parameter adjustments
- Enhanced fundamental screening
- Increased macro factor weighting
IMPLEMENTATION AND VALIDATION
The model implementation utilizes comprehensive financial data sourced from established providers, with fundamental metrics updated on quarterly frequencies to reflect reporting schedules. Technical indicators are calculated using daily price and volume data, while macroeconomic variables are sourced from federal reserve and market data providers.
Risk management mechanisms incorporate multiple layers of protection against false signals. The bankruptcy risk filter utilizes Altman Z-Scores below 1.8 combined with current ratios below 1.0 to identify companies facing potential financial distress. Liquidity crisis detection employs quick ratios below 0.5 combined with cash-to-debt ratios below 0.1. Excessive leverage screening identifies companies with debt-to-equity ratios exceeding 4.0 and interest coverage ratios below 2.0.
Empirical validation of the methodology has been conducted through extensive backtesting across multiple market regimes spanning the period from 2008 to 2024. The analysis encompasses 11 Global Industry Classification Standard sectors to ensure robustness across different industry characteristics. Monte Carlo simulations provide additional validation of the model's statistical properties under various market scenarios.
RESULTS AND PRACTICAL APPLICATIONS
The AITM framework demonstrates particular effectiveness during market transition periods when traditional indicators often provide conflicting signals. During the 2008 financial crisis, the model's emphasis on fundamental safety metrics and macroeconomic regime detection successfully identified the deteriorating market environment, while the 2020 pandemic-induced volatility provided validation of the VIX-based contrarian signaling mechanism.
Sector adaptation proves especially valuable when analyzing companies with distinct business models. Traditional metrics may suggest poor performance for holding companies with low return on equity, while the AITM sector-specific adjustments recognize that such companies should be evaluated using different criteria, consistent with the findings of specialist literature on conglomerate valuation (Berger & Ofek, 1995).
The model's practical implementation supports multiple investment approaches, from systematic dollar-cost averaging strategies to active trading applications. Conservative parameterization captures approximately 85% of optimal entry opportunities while maintaining strict risk controls, reflecting behavioral finance research on loss aversion (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). Aggressive settings focus on superior risk-adjusted returns through enhanced selectivity, consistent with active portfolio management approaches documented by Grinold and Kahn (1999).
LIMITATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH
Several limitations constrain the model's applicability and should be acknowledged. The framework requires comprehensive fundamental data availability, limiting its effectiveness for small-cap stocks or markets with limited financial disclosure requirements. Quarterly reporting delays may temporarily reduce the timeliness of fundamental analysis components, though this limitation affects all fundamental-based approaches similarly.
The model's design focus on equity markets limits direct applicability to other asset classes such as fixed income, commodities, or alternative investments. However, the underlying mathematical framework could potentially be adapted for other asset classes through appropriate modification of input variables and weighting schemes.
Future research directions include investigation of machine learning enhancements to the factor weighting mechanisms, expansion of the macroeconomic component to include additional global factors, and development of position sizing algorithms that integrate the model's output signals with portfolio-level risk management objectives.
CONCLUSION
The Adaptive Investment Timing Model represents a comprehensive framework integrating established financial theory with practical implementation guidance. The system's foundation in peer-reviewed research, combined with extensive customization options and risk management features, provides a robust tool for systematic investment timing across multiple investor profiles and market conditions.
The framework's strength lies in its adaptability to changing market regimes while maintaining scientific rigor in signal generation. Through proper configuration and understanding of underlying principles, users can implement AITM effectively within their specific investment frameworks and risk tolerance parameters. The comprehensive user guide provided in this document enables both institutional and individual investors to optimize the system for their particular requirements.
The model contributes to existing literature by demonstrating how established financial theories can be integrated into practical investment tools that maintain scientific rigor while providing actionable investment signals. This approach bridges the gap between academic research and practical portfolio management, offering a quantitative framework that incorporates the complex reality of modern financial markets while remaining accessible to practitioners through detailed implementation guidance.
REFERENCES
Altman, E. I. (1968). Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. Journal of Finance, 23(4), 589-609.
Ang, A., & Bekaert, G. (2007). Stock return predictability: Is it there? Review of Financial Studies, 20(3), 651-707.
Baker, M., & Wurgler, J. (2007). Investor sentiment in the stock market. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(2), 129-152.
Berger, P. G., & Ofek, E. (1995). Diversification's effect on firm value. Journal of Financial Economics, 37(1), 39-65.
Bollinger, J. (2001). Bollinger on Bollinger Bands. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Calmar, T. (1991). The Calmar ratio: A smoother tool. Futures, 20(1), 40.
Edwards, R. D., Magee, J., & Bassetti, W. H. C. (2018). Technical Analysis of Stock Trends. 11th ed. Boca Raton: CRC Press.
Estrella, A., & Mishkin, F. S. (1998). Predicting US recessions: Financial variables as leading indicators. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80(1), 45-61.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1988). Dividend yields and expected stock returns. Journal of Financial Economics, 22(1), 3-25.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1993). Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 33(1), 3-56.
Giot, P. (2005). Relationships between implied volatility indexes and stock index returns. Journal of Portfolio Management, 31(3), 92-100.
Graham, B., & Dodd, D. L. (2008). Security Analysis. 6th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
Grinold, R. C., & Kahn, R. N. (1999). Active Portfolio Management. 2nd ed. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Guidolin, M., & Timmermann, A. (2007). Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 31(11), 3503-3544.
Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), 357-384.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
Koenker, R., & Bassett Jr, G. (1978). Regression quantiles. Econometrica, 46(1), 33-50.
Lakonishok, J., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (1994). Contrarian investment, extrapolation, and risk. Journal of Finance, 49(5), 1541-1578.
Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1999). A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Malkiel, B. G. (2003). The efficient market hypothesis and its critics. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 17(1), 59-82.
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Miller, G. A. (1956). The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information. Psychological Review, 63(2), 81-97.
Penman, S. H. (2012). Financial Statement Analysis and Security Valuation. 5th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill Education.
Piotroski, J. D. (2000). Value investing: The use of historical financial statement information to separate winners from losers. Journal of Accounting Research, 38, 1-41.
Sharpe, W. F. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442.
Sharpe, W. F. (1994). The Sharpe ratio. Journal of Portfolio Management, 21(1), 49-58.
Thaler, R. H., & Sunstein, C. R. (2008). Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Whaley, R. E. (1993). Derivatives on market volatility: Hedging tools long overdue. Journal of Derivatives, 1(1), 71-84.
Whaley, R. E. (2000). The investor fear gauge. Journal of Portfolio Management, 26(3), 12-17.
Wilder, J. W. (1978). New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems. Greensboro: Trend Research.
Zero-Lag RSI DivergenceZero-Lag RSI Divergence
Overview
This indicator identifies RSI divergences in real-time without delay, providing immediate signals as price-momentum discrepancies develop. The indicator analyzes price action against RSI momentum across dual configurable periods, enabling traders to detect potential reversal opportunities with zero lag.
Key Features
Instant Divergence Detection : Identifies bullish and bearish divergences immediately upon formation without waiting for candle confirmation or historical validation. This eliminates signal delay but may increase false signals due to higher sensitivity.
Dual Period Analysis : Configure detection across two independent cycles - Short Period (default 15) and Long Period (default 50) - allowing for multi-timeframe divergence analysis and enhanced signal validation across different market conditions.
Visual Divergence Lines : Automatically draws dashed lines connecting divergence points between price highs/lows and corresponding RSI peaks/troughs, clearly illustrating the momentum-price relationship.
Customizable RSI Parameters : Adjustable RSI length (default 14) allows optimization for different market volatility and trading timeframes.
How It Works
The indicator continuously monitors price action patterns and RSI momentum:
- Bullish Divergence : Detected when price makes lower lows while RSI makes higher lows, suggesting potential upward momentum
- Bearish Divergence : Identified when price makes higher highs while RSI makes lower highs, indicating potential downward momentum
The algorithm uses candle color transitions and immediate RSI comparisons to trigger signals without historical repainting , ensuring backtesting accuracy and real-time reliability.
How To Read
Important Notes
Higher Signal Frequency : The zero-lag approach increases signal sensitivity, generating more frequent alerts that may include false signals. Consider using additional confirmation methods for trade entries.
Non-Repainting : All signals are generated and maintained without historical modification, ensuring consistent backtesting and forward-testing results.
Input Parameters
RSI Length: Period for RSI calculation (default: 14)
Short/Long Periods: Lookback periods for divergence detection (default: 15/50)
Line Colors: Customizable colors for short and long period divergence lines
Label Settings: Optional divergence labels with custom text
This indicator is designed for traders seeking immediate divergence identification across multiple timeframes while maintaining signal integrity and backtesting reliability.
Multi-indicator Signal Builder [Skyrexio]Overview
Multi-Indicator Signal Builder is a versatile, all-in-one script designed to streamline your trading workflow by combining multiple popular technical indicators under a single roof. It features a single-entry, single-exit logic, intrabar stop-loss/take-profit handling, an optional time filter, a visually accessible condition table, and a built-in statistics label. Traders can choose any combination of 12+ indicators (RSI, Ultimate Oscillator, Bollinger %B, Moving Averages, ADX, Stochastic, MACD, PSAR, MFI, CCI, Heikin Ashi, and a “TV Screener” placeholder) to form entry or exit conditions. This script aims to simplify strategy creation and analysis, making it a powerful toolkit for technical traders.
Indicators Overview
1. RSI (Relative Strength Index)
Measures recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions on a 0–100 scale.
2. Ultimate Oscillator (UO)
Uses weighted averages of three different timeframes, aiming to confirm price momentum while avoiding false divergences.
3. Bollinger %B
Expresses price relative to Bollinger Bands, indicating whether price is near the upper band (overbought) or lower band (oversold).
4. Moving Average (MA)
Smooths price data over a specified period. The script supports both SMA and EMA to help identify trend direction and potential crossovers.
5. ADX (Average Directional Index)
Gauges the strength of a trend (0–100). Higher ADX signals stronger momentum, while lower ADX indicates a weaker trend.
6. Stochastic
Compares a closing price to a price range over a given period to identify momentum shifts and potential reversals.
7. MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence)
Tracks the difference between two EMAs plus a signal line, commonly used to spot momentum flips through crossovers.
8. PSAR (Parabolic SAR)
Plots a trailing stop-and-reverse dot that moves with the trend. Often used to signal potential reversals when price crosses PSAR.
9. MFI (Money Flow Index)
Similar to RSI but incorporates volume data. A reading above 80 can suggest overbought conditions, while below 20 may indicate oversold.
10. CCI (Commodity Channel Index)
Identifies cyclical trends or overbought/oversold levels by comparing current price to an average price over a set timeframe.
11. Heikin Ashi
A type of candlestick charting that filters out market noise. The script uses a streak-based approach (multiple consecutive bullish or bearish bars) to gauge mini-trends.
12. TV Screener
A placeholder condition designed to integrate external buy/sell logic (like a TradingView “Buy” or “Sell” rating). Users can override or reference external signals if desired.
Unique Features
1. Multi-Indicator Entry and Exit
You can selectively enable any subset of 12+ classic indicators, each with customizable parameters and conditions. A position opens only if all enabled entry conditions are met, and it closes only when all enabled exit conditions are satisfied, helping reduce false triggers.
2. Single-Entry / Single-Exit with Intrabar SL/TP
The script supports a single position at a time. Once a position is open, it monitors intrabar to see if the price hits your stop-loss or take-profit levels before the bar closes, making results more realistic for fast-moving markets.
3. Time Window Filter
Users may specify a start/end date range during which trades are allowed, making it convenient to focus on specific market cycles for backtesting or live trading.
4. Condition Table and Statistics
A table at the bottom of the chart lists all active entry/exit indicators. Upon each closed trade, an integrated statistics label displays net profit, total trades, win/loss count, average and median PnL, etc.
5. Seamless Alerts and Automation
Configure alerts in TradingView using “Any alert() function call.”
The script sends JSON alert messages you can route to your own webhook.
The indicator can be integrated with Skyrexio alert bots to automate execution on major cryptocurrency exchanges
6. Optional MA/PSAR Plots
For added visual clarity, optionally plot the chosen moving averages or PSAR on the chart to confirm signals without stacking multiple indicators.
Methodology
1. Multi-Indicator Entry Logic
When multiple entry indicators are enabled (e.g., RSI + Stochastic + MACD), the script requires all signals to align before generating an entry. Each indicator can be set for crossovers, crossunders, thresholds (above/below), etc. This “AND” logic aims to filter out low-confidence triggers.
2. Single-Entry Intrabar SL/TP
One Position At a Time: Once an entry signal triggers, a trade opens at the bar’s close.
Intrabar Checks: Stop-loss and take-profit levels (if enabled) are monitored on every tick. If either is reached, the position closes immediately, without waiting for the bar to end.
3. Exit Logic
All Conditions Must Agree: If the trade is still open (SL/TP not triggered), then all enabled exit indicators must confirm a closure before the script exits on the bar’s close.
4. Time Filter
Optional Trading Window: You can activate a date/time range to constrain entries and exits strictly to that interval.
Justification of Methodology
Indicator Confluence: Combining multiple tools (RSI, MACD, etc.) can reduce noise and false signals.
Intrabar SL/TP: Capturing real-time spikes or dips provides a more precise reflection of typical live trading scenarios.
Single-Entry Model: Straightforward for both manual and automated tracking (especially important in bridging to bots).
Custom Date Range: Helps refine backtesting for specific market conditions or to avoid known irregular data periods.
How to Use
1. Add the Script to Your Chart
In TradingView, open Indicators , search for “Multi-indicator Signal Builder”.
Click to add it to your chart.
2. Configure Inputs
Time Filter: Set a start and end date for trades.
Alerts Messages: Input any JSON or text payload needed by your external service or bot.
Entry Conditions: Enable and configure any indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD) for a confluence-based entry.
Close Conditions: Enable exit indicators, along with optional SL (negative %) and TP (positive %) levels.
3. Set Up Alerts
In TradingView, select “Create Alert” → Condition = “Any alert() function call” → choose this script.
Entry Alert: Triggers on the script’s entry signal.
Close Alert: Triggers on the script’s close signal (or if SL/TP is hit).
Skyrexio Alert Bots: You can route these alerts via webhook to Skyrexio alert bots to automate order execution on major crypto exchanges (or any other supported broker).
4. Visual Reference
A condition table at the bottom summarizes active signals.
Statistics Label updates automatically as trades are closed, showing PnL stats and distribution metrics.
Backtesting Guidelines
Symbol/Timeframe: Works on multiple assets and timeframes; always do thorough testing.
Realistic Costs: Adjust commissions and potential slippage to match typical exchange conditions.
Risk Management: If using the built-in stop-loss/take-profit, set percentages that reflect your personal risk tolerance.
Longer Test Horizons: Verify performance across diverse market cycles to gauge reliability.
Example of statistic calculation
Test Period: 2023-01-01 to 2025-12-31
Initial Capital: $1,000
Commission: 0.1%, Slippage ~5 ticks
Trade Count: 468 (varies by strategy conditions)
Win rate: 76% (varies by strategy conditions)
Net Profit: +96.17% (varies by strategy conditions)
Disclaimer
This indicator is provided strictly for informational and educational purposes .
It does not constitute financial or trading advice.
Past performance never guarantees future results.
Always test thoroughly in demo environments before using real capital.
Enjoy exploring the Multi-Indicator Signal Builder! Experiment with different indicator combinations and adjust parameters to align with your trading preferences, whether you trade manually or link your alerts to external automation services. Happy trading and stay safe!
CauchyTrend [InvestorUnknown]The CauchyTrend is an experimental tool that leverages a Cauchy-weighted moving average combined with a modified Supertrend calculation. This unique approach provides traders with insight into trend direction, while also offering an optional ATR-based range analysis to understand how often the market closes within, above, or below a defined volatility band.
Core Concepts
Cauchy Distribution and Gamma Parameter
The Cauchy distribution is a probability distribution known for its heavy tails and lack of a defined mean or variance. It is characterized by two parameters: a location parameter (x0, often 0 in our usage) and a scale parameter (γ, "gamma").
Gamma (γ): Determines the "width" or scale of the distribution. Smaller gamma values produce a distribution more concentrated near the center, giving more weight to recent data points, while larger gamma values spread the weight more evenly across the sample.
In this indicator, gamma influences how much emphasis is placed on values closer to the current price versus those further away in time. This makes the resulting weighted average either more reactive or smoother, depending on gamma’s value.
// Cauchy PDF formula used for weighting:
// f(x; γ) = (1/(π*γ)) *
f_cauchyPDF(offset, gamma) =>
numerator = gamma * gamma
denominator = (offset * offset) + (gamma * gamma)
pdf = (1 / (math.pi * gamma)) * (numerator / denominator)
pdf
A chart showing different Cauchy PDFs with various gamma values, illustrating how gamma affects the weight distribution.
Cauchy-Weighted Moving Average (CWMA)
Using the Cauchy PDF, we calculate normalized weights to create a custom Weighted Moving Average. Each bar in the lookback period receives a weight according to the Cauchy PDF. The result is a Cauchy Weighted Average (cwm_avg) that differs from typical moving averages, potentially offering unique sensitivity to price movements.
// Summation of weighted prices using Cauchy distribution weights
cwm_avg = 0.0
for i = 0 to length - 1
w_norm = array.get(weights, i) / sum_w
cwm_avg += array.get(values, i) * w_norm
Supertrend with a Cauchy Twist
The indicator integrates a modified Supertrend calculation using the cwm_avg as its reference point. The Supertrend logic typically sets upper and lower bands based on volatility (ATR), and flips direction when price crosses these bands.
In this case, the Cauchy-based average replaces the usual baseline, aiming to capture trend direction via a different weighting mechanism.
When price closes above the upper band, the trend is considered bullish; closing below the lower band signals a bearish trend.
ATR Stats Range (Optional)
Beyond the fundamental trend detection, the indicator optionally computes ATR-based stats to understand price distribution relative to a volatility corridor centered on the cwm_avg line:
Volatility Range:
Defined as cwm_avg ± (ATR * atr_mult), this range creates upper and lower bands. Turning on atr_stats computes how often the daily close falls: Within the range, Above the upper ATR boundary, Below the lower ATR boundary, Within the range but above cwm_avg, Within the range but below cwm_avg
These statistics can help traders gauge how the market behaves relative to this volatility envelope and possibly identify if the market tends to revert to the mean or break out more often.
Backtesting and Performance Metrics
The code is integrated with a backtesting library that allows users to assess strategy performance historically:
Equity Curve Calculation: Compares CauchyTrend-based signals against the underlying asset.
Performance Metrics Table: Once enabled, displays key metrics such as mean returns, Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, and more, comparing the strategy to a simple Buy & Hold approach.
Alerts and Notifications
The indicator provides Alerts for key events:
Long Alert: Triggered when the trend flips bullish.
Short Alert: Triggered when the trend flips bearish.
Customization and Calibration
Important: The default parameters are not optimized for any specific instrument or time frame. Traders should:
Adjust the length and gamma parameters to influence how sharply or broadly the cwm_avg reacts to price changes.
Tune the atr_len and atr_mult for the Supertrend logic to better match the asset’s volatility characteristics.
Experiment with atr_stats on/off to see if that additional volatility distribution information provides helpful insights.
Traders may find certain sets of parameters that align better with their preferred trading style, risk tolerance, or asset volatility profile.
Disclaimer: This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. Past performance in backtesting does not guarantee future results. Always perform due diligence, and consider consulting a qualified financial advisor before trading.
Cosine-Weighted MA ATR [InvestorUnknown]The Cosine-Weighted Moving Average (CWMA) ATR (Average True Range) indicator is designed to enhance the analysis of price movements in financial markets. By incorporating a cosine-based weighting mechanism , this indicator provides a unique approach to smoothing price data and measuring volatility, making it a valuable tool for traders and investors.
Cosine-Weighted Moving Average (CWMA)
The CWMA is calculated using weights derived from the cosine function, which emphasizes different data points in a distinctive manner. Unlike traditional moving averages that assign equal weight to all data points, the cosine weighting allocates more significance to values at the edges of the data window. This can help capture significant price movements while mitigating the impact of outlier values.
The weights are shifted to ensure they remain non-negative, which helps in maintaining a stable calculation throughout the data series. The normalization of these weights ensures they sum to one, providing a proportional contribution to the average.
// Function to calculate the Cosine-Weighted Moving Average with shifted weights
f_Cosine_Weighted_MA(series float src, simple int length) =>
var float cosine_weights = array.new_float(0)
array.clear(cosine_weights) // Clear the array before recalculating weights
for i = 0 to length - 1
weight = math.cos((math.pi * (i + 1)) / length) + 1 // Shift by adding 1
array.push(cosine_weights, weight)
// Normalize the weights
sum_weights = array.sum(cosine_weights)
for i = 0 to length - 1
norm_weight = array.get(cosine_weights, i) / sum_weights
array.set(cosine_weights, i, norm_weight)
// Calculate Cosine-Weighted Moving Average
cwma = 0.0
if bar_index >= length
for i = 0 to length - 1
cwma := cwma + array.get(cosine_weights, i) * close
cwma
Cosine-Weighted ATR Calculation
The ATR is an essential measure of volatility, reflecting the average range of price movement over a specified period. The Cosine-Weighted ATR uses a similar weighting scheme to that of the CWMA, allowing for a more nuanced understanding of volatility. By emphasizing more recent price movements while retaining sensitivity to broader trends, this ATR variant offers traders enhanced insight into potential price fluctuations.
// Function to calculate the Cosine-Weighted ATR with shifted weights
f_Cosine_Weighted_ATR(simple int length) =>
var float cosine_weights_atr = array.new_float(0)
array.clear(cosine_weights_atr)
for i = 0 to length - 1
weight = math.cos((math.pi * (i + 1)) / length) + 1 // Shift by adding 1
array.push(cosine_weights_atr, weight)
// Normalize the weights
sum_weights_atr = array.sum(cosine_weights_atr)
for i = 0 to length - 1
norm_weight_atr = array.get(cosine_weights_atr, i) / sum_weights_atr
array.set(cosine_weights_atr, i, norm_weight_atr)
// Calculate Cosine-Weighted ATR using true ranges
cwatr = 0.0
tr = ta.tr(true) // True Range
if bar_index >= length
for i = 0 to length - 1
cwatr := cwatr + array.get(cosine_weights_atr, i) * tr
cwatr
Signal Generation
The indicator generates long and short signals based on the relationship between the price (user input) and the calculated upper and lower bands, derived from the CWMA and the Cosine-Weighted ATR. Crossover conditions are used to identify potential entry points, providing a systematic approach to trading decisions.
// - - - - - CALCULATIONS - - - - - //{
bar b = bar.new()
float src = b.calc_src(cwma_src)
float cwma = f_Cosine_Weighted_MA(src, ma_length)
// Use normal ATR or Cosine-Weighted ATR based on input
float atr = atr_type == "Normal ATR" ? ta.atr(atr_len) : f_Cosine_Weighted_ATR(atr_len)
// Calculate upper and lower bands using ATR
float cwma_up = cwma + (atr * atr_mult)
float cwma_dn = cwma - (atr * atr_mult)
float src_l = b.calc_src(src_long)
float src_s = b.calc_src(src_short)
// Signal logic for crossovers and crossunders
var int signal = 0
if ta.crossover(src_l, cwma_up)
signal := 1
if ta.crossunder(src_s, cwma_dn)
signal := -1
//}
Backtest Mode and Equity Calculation
To evaluate its effectiveness, the indicator includes a backtest mode, allowing users to test its performance on historical data:
Backtest Equity: A detailed equity curve is calculated based on the generated signals over a user-defined period (startDate to endDate).
Buy and Hold Comparison: Alongside the strategy’s equity, a Buy-and-Hold equity curve is plotted for performance comparison.
Visualization and Alerts
The indicator features customizable plots, allowing users to visualize the CWMA, ATR bands, and signals effectively. The colors change dynamically based on market conditions, with clear distinctions between long and short signals.
Alerts can be configured to notify users of crossover events, providing timely information for potential trading opportunities.
Sine-Weighted MA ATR [InvestorUnknown]The Sine-Weighted MA ATR is a technical analysis tool designed to emphasize recent price data using sine-weighted calculations , making it particularly well-suited for analyzing cyclical markets with repetitive patterns . The indicator combines the Sine-Weighted Moving Average (SWMA) and a Sine-Weighted Average True Range (SWATR) to enhance price trend detection and volatility analysis.
Sine-Weighted Moving Average (SWMA):
Unlike traditional moving averages that apply uniform or exponentially decaying weights, the SWMA applies Sine weights to the price data.
Emphasis on central data points: The Sine function assigns more weight to the middle of the lookback period, giving less importance to the beginning and end points. This helps capture the main trend more effectively while reducing noise from recent volatility or older data.
// Function to calculate the Sine-Weighted Moving Average
f_Sine_Weighted_MA(series float src, simple int length) =>
var float sine_weights = array.new_float(0)
array.clear(sine_weights) // Clear the array before recalculating weights
for i = 0 to length - 1
weight = math.sin((math.pi * (i + 1)) / length)
array.push(sine_weights, weight)
// Normalize the weights
sum_weights = array.sum(sine_weights)
for i = 0 to length - 1
norm_weight = array.get(sine_weights, i) / sum_weights
array.set(sine_weights, i, norm_weight)
// Calculate Sine-Weighted Moving Average
swma = 0.0
if bar_index >= length
for i = 0 to length - 1
swma := swma + array.get(sine_weights, i) * close
swma
Sine-Weighted ATR:
This is a variation of the Average True Range (ATR), which measures market volatility. Like the SWMA, the ATR is smoothed using Sine-based weighting, where central values are more heavily considered compared to the extremities. This improves sensitivity to changes in volatility while maintaining stability in highly volatile markets.
// Function to calculate the Sine-Weighted ATR
f_Sine_Weighted_ATR(simple int length) =>
var float sine_weights_atr = array.new_float(0)
array.clear(sine_weights_atr)
for i = 0 to length - 1
weight = math.sin((math.pi * (i + 1)) / length)
array.push(sine_weights_atr, weight)
// Normalize the weights
sum_weights_atr = array.sum(sine_weights_atr)
for i = 0 to length - 1
norm_weight_atr = array.get(sine_weights_atr, i) / sum_weights_atr
array.set(sine_weights_atr, i, norm_weight_atr)
// Calculate Sine-Weighted ATR using true ranges
swatr = 0.0
tr = ta.tr(true) // True Range
if bar_index >= length
for i = 0 to length - 1
swatr := swatr + array.get(sine_weights_atr, i) * tr
swatr
ATR Bands:
Upper and lower bands are created by adding/subtracting the Sine-Weighted ATR from the SWMA. These bands help identify overbought or oversold conditions, and when the price crosses these levels, it may generate long or short trade signals.
// - - - - - CALCULATIONS - - - - - //{
bar b = bar.new()
float src = b.calc_src(swma_src)
float swma = f_Sine_Weighted_MA(src, ma_length)
// Use normal ATR or Sine-Weighted ATR based on input
float atr = atr_type == "Normal ATR" ? ta.atr(atr_len) : f_Sine_Weighted_ATR(atr_len)
// Calculate upper and lower bands using ATR
float swma_up = swma + (atr * atr_mult)
float swma_dn = swma - (atr * atr_mult)
float src_l = b.calc_src(src_long)
float src_s = b.calc_src(src_short)
// Signal logic for crossovers and crossunders
var int signal = 0
if ta.crossover(src_l, swma_up)
signal := 1
if ta.crossunder(src_s, swma_dn)
signal := -1
//}
Signal Logic:
Long/Short Signals are triggered when the price crosses above or below the Sine-Weighted ATR bands
Backtest Mode and Equity Calculation
To evaluate its effectiveness, the indicator includes a backtest mode, allowing users to test its performance on historical data:
Backtest Equity: A detailed equity curve is calculated based on the generated signals over a user-defined period (startDate to endDate).
Buy and Hold Comparison: Alongside the strategy’s equity, a Buy-and-Hold equity curve is plotted for performance comparison.
Alerts
The indicator includes built-in alerts for both long and short signals, ensuring users are promptly notified when market conditions meet the criteria for an entry or exit.
ICT Power Of Three | Flux Charts💎 GENERAL OVERVIEW
Introducing our new ICT Power Of Three Indicator! This indicator is built around the ICT's "Power Of Three" strategy. This strategy makes use of these 3 key smart money concepts : Accumulation, Manipulation and Distribution. Each step is explained in detail within this write-up. For more information about the process, check the "HOW DOES IT WORK" section.
Features of the new ICT Power Of Three Indicator :
Implementation of ICT's Power Of Three Strategy
Different Algorithm Modes
Customizable Execution Settings
Customizable Backtesting Dashboard
Alerts for Buy, Sell, TP & SL Signals
📌 HOW DOES IT WORK ?
The "Power Of Three" comes from these three keywords "Accumulation, Manipulation and Distribution". Here is a brief explanation of each keyword :
Accumulation -> Accumulation phase is when the smart money accumulate their positions in a fixed range. This phase indicates price stability, generally meaning that the price constantly switches between up & down trend between a low and a high pivot point. When the indicator detects an accumulation zone, the Power Of Three strategy begins.
Manipulation -> When the smart money needs to increase their position sizes, they need retail traders' positions for liquidity. So, they manipulate the market into the opposite direction of their intended direction. This will result in retail traders opening positions the way that the smart money intended them to do, creating liquidity. After this step, the real move that the smart money intended begins.
Distribution -> This is when the real intention of the smart money comes into action. With the new liquidity thanks to the manipulation phase, the smart money add their positions towards the opposite direction of the retail mindset. The purpose of this indicator is to detect the accumulation and manipulation phases, and help the trader move towards the same direction as the smart money for their trades.
Detection Methods Of The Indicator :
Accumulation -> The indicator detects accumulation zones as explained step-by-step :
1. Draw two lines from the lowest point and the highest point of the latest X bars.
2. If the (high line - low line) is lower than Average True Range (ATR) * accumulationConstant
3. After the condition is validated, an accumulation zone is detected. The accumulation zone will be invalidated and manipulation phase will begin when the range is broken.
Manipulation -> If the accumulation range is broken, check if the current bar closes / wicks above the (high line + ATR * manipulationConstant) or below the (low line - ATR * manipulationConstant). If the condition is met, the indicator detects a manipulation zone.
Distribution -> The purpose of this indicator is to try to foresee the distribution zone, so instead of a detection, after the manipulation zone is detected the indicator automatically create a "shadow" distribution zone towards the opposite direction of the freshly detected manipulation zone. This shadow distribution zone comes with a take-profit and stop-loss layout, customizable by the trader in the settings.
The X bars, accumulationConstant and manipulationConstant are subject to change with the "Algorithm Mode" setting. Read the "Settings" section for more information.
This indicator follows these steps and inform you step by step by plotting them in your chart.
🚩UNIQUENESS
This indicator is an all-in-one suite for the ICT's Power Of Three concept. It's capable of plotting the strategy, giving signals, a backtesting dashboard and alerts feature. Different and customizable algorithm modes will help the trader fine-tune the indicator for the asset they are currently trading. The backtesting dashboard allows you to see how your settings perform in the current ticker. You can also set up alerts to get informed when the strategy is executable for different tickers.
⚙️SETTINGS
1. General Configuration
Algorithm Mode -> The indicator offers 3 different detection algorithm modes according to your needs. Here is the explanation of each mode.
a) Small Manipulation
This mode has the default bar length for the accumulation detection, but a lower manipulation constant, meaning that slighter imbalances in the price action can be detected as manipulation. This setting can be useful on tickers that have lower liquidity, thus can be manipulated easier.
b) Big Manipulation
This mode has the default bar length for the accumulation detection, but a higher manipulation constant, meaning that heavier imbalances on the price action are required in order to detect manipulation zones. This setting can be useful on tickers that have higher liquidity, thus can be manipulated harder.
c) Short Accumulation
This mode has a ~70% lower bar length requirement for accumulation zone detection, and the default manipulation constant. This setting can be useful on tickers that are highly volatile and do not enter accumulation phases too often.
Breakout Method -> If "Close" is selected, bar close price will be taken into calculation when Accumulation & Manipulation zone invalidation. If "Wick" is selected, a wick will be enough to validate the corresponding zone.
2. TP / SL
TP / SL Method -> If "Fixed" is selected, you can adjust the TP / SL ratios from the settings below. If "Dynamic" is selected, the TP / SL zones will be auto-determined by the algorithm.
Risk -> The risk you're willing to take if "Dynamic" TP / SL Method is selected. Higher risk usually means a better winrate at the cost of losing more if the strategy fails. This setting is has a crucial effect on the performance of the indicator, as different tickers may have different volatility so the indicator may have increased performance when this setting is correctly adjusted.
3. Visuals
Show Zones -> Enables / Disables rendering of Accumulation (yellow) and Manipulation (red) zones.
Hammer & Shooting Star [C] - KaspricciHammer and Shooting Star
This indicator identifies Hammer and Shooting Star candles and marks them with a respective label. It uses a set of predefined fibonacci levels to measure the size of the body in comparison to the overall size of the candle. You can change the fibonacci level according to your preferences.
You can enable a confirmation of the Hammer or Shooting Star candle by a following green or red candle.
Settings
Fibonacci Level - Select on of the predefined fibonacci levels as a threshold for the maximum size of the body compared to the overall size of the candle.
Confirm by next candle - by default turned off. If turned on, this will check the subsequent candle and only mark a Hammer followed by a green candle or a Shooting Star followed by a red candle.
Show labels on chart - by default turned on. If turned off, the indicator will hide the labels on the chart.
Alerts
You can create alerts for Hammer and Shooting Star candles. The indicator provides the respective conditions.
Linking with Backtesting Strategy
I also added a feature to combine this indicator with a backtesting strategy. It provides a plot Connector which can be selected in a backtesting strategy supporting this linking feature.
Signals:
Signal: 2 - Hammer candle (long entry)
Signal: -2 - Shooting Start candle (short entry)
You can see the signal values in the status line of the indicator. This is based on the External Signal Protocol defined by PineCoders .
SubCandleI created this script as POC to handle specific cases where not having tick data on historical bars create repainting. Happy to share if this serves purpose for other coders.
What is the function of this script?
Script plots a sub-candle which is remainder of candle after forming the latest peak.
Higher body of Sub-candle refers to strong retracement of price from its latest peak. Color of the sub-candle defines the direction of retracement.
Higher wick of Sub-candle refers to higher push in the direction of original candle. Meaning, after price reaching its peak, price retraced but could not hold.
Here is a screenshot with explanation to visualise the concept:
Settings
There is only one setting which is number of backtest bars. Lower timeframe resolution which is used for calculating the Sub-candle uses this number to automatically calculate maximum possible lower timeframe so that all the required backtest windows are covered without having any issue.
We need to keep in mind that max available lower timeframe bars is 100,000. Hence, with 5000 backtest bars, lower timeframe resolution can be about 20 (100000/5000) times lesser than that of regular chart timeframe. We need to also keep in mind that minimum resolution available as part of security_lower_tf is 1 minute. Hence, it is not advisable to use this script for chart timeframes less than 15 mins.
Application
I have been facing this issue in pattern recognition scripts where patterns are formed using high/low prices but entry and targets are calculated based on the opposite side (low/high). It becomes tricky during extreme bars to identify entry conditions based on just the opposite peak because, the candle might have originated from it before identifying the pattern and might have never reached same peak after forming the pattern. Due to lack of tick data on historical bars, we cannot use close price to measure such conditions. This leads to repaint and few unexpected results. I am intending to use this method to overcome the issue up-to some extent.
Financial Astrology Crypto ML Daily TrendThis daily trend indicator is based on financial astrology cycles detected with advanced machine learning techniques for the crypto-currencies research portfolio: ADA, BAT, BNB, BTC, DASH, EOS, ETC, ETH, LINK, LTC, XLM, XMR, XRP, ZEC and ZRX. The daily price trend is forecasted through this planets cycles (angular aspects, speed, declination), fast ones are based on Moon, Mercury, Venus and Sun and Mid term cycles are based on Mars, Vesta and Ceres. The combination of all this cycles produce a daily price trend prediction that is encoded into a PineScript array using binary format "0 or 1" that represent sell and buy signals respectively. The indicator provides signals since 2021-01-01 to 2022-12-31, the past months signals purpose is to support backtesting of the indicator combined with other technical indicator entries like MAs, RSI or Stochastic. For future predictions besides 2022 a machine learning models re-train phase will be required.
The resolution of this indicator is 1D, you can tune a parameter where you can determine how many future bars of daily trend are plotted and adjust an hours shift to anticipate future signals into current bar in order to produce a leading indicator effect to anticipate the trend changes with some hours of anticipation. Combined with technical analysis indicators this daily trend is very powerful because can help to produce approximately 60% of profitable signals based on the backtesting results. You can look at our open source Github repositories to validate accuracy using the backtesting strategies we have implemented in Jesse Crypto Trading Framework as proof of concept of the predictive potential of this indicator. Alternatively, we have implemented a PineScript strategy that use this indicator, just consider that we are pending to do signals update to the period July 2021 to December 2022: This strategy have accumulated more than 110 likes and many traders have validated the predictive power of Financial Astrology.
DISCLAIMER: This indicator is experimental and don’t provide financial or investment advice, the main purpose is to demonstrate the predictive power of financial astrology. Any allocation of funds following the documented machine learning model prediction is a high-risk endeavour and it’s the users responsibility to practice healthy risk management according to your situation.
Efficient Work [LucF]█ OVERVIEW
Efficient Work measures the ratio of price movement from close to close ( resulting work ) over the distance traveled to the high and low before settling down at the close ( total work ). The closer the two values are, the more Efficient Work approaches its maximum value of +1 for an up move or -1 for a down move. When price does not change, Efficient Work is zero.
Higher values of Efficient Work indicate more efficient price travel between the close of two successive bars, which I interpret to be more significant, regardless of the move's amplitude. Because it measures the direction and strength of price changes rather than their amplitude, Efficient Work may be thought of as a sentiment indicator.
█ CONCEPTS
This oscillator's design stems from a few key concepts.
Relative Levels
Other than the centerline, relative rather than absolute levels are used to identify levels of interest. Accordingly, no fixed levels correspond to overbought/oversold conditions. Relative levels of interest are identified using:
• A Donchian channel (historical highs/lows).
• The oscillator's position relative to higher timeframe values.
• Oscillator levels following points in time where a divergence is identified.
Higher timeframes
Two progressively higher timeframes are used to calculate larger-context values for the oscillator. The rationale underlying the use of timeframes higher than the chart's is that, while they change less frequently than the values calculated at the chart's resolution, they are more meaningful because more work (trader activity) is required to calculate them. Combining the immediacy of values calculated at the chart's resolution to higher timeframe values achieves a compromise between responsiveness and reliability.
Divergences as points of interest rather than directional clues
A very simple interpretation of what constitutes a divergence is used. A divergence is defined as a discrepancy between any bar's direction and the direction of the signal line on that same bar. No attempt is made to attribute a directional bias to divergences when they occur. Instead, the oscillator's level is saved and subsequent movement of the oscillator relative to the saved level is what determines the bullish/bearish state of the oscillator.
Conservative coloring scheme
Several additive coloring conditions allow the bull/bear coloring of the oscillator's main line to be restricted to specific areas meeting all the selected conditions. The concept is built on the premise that most of the time, an oscillator's value should be viewed as mere noise, and that somewhat like price, it only occasionally conveys actionable information.
█ FEATURES
Plots
• Three lines can be plotted. They are named Main line , Line 2 and Line 3 . You decide which calculation to use for each line:
• The oscillator's value at the chart's resolution.
• The oscillator's value at a medium timeframe higher than the chart's resolution.
• The oscillator's value at the highest timeframe.
• An aggregate line calculated using a weighed average of the three previous lines (see the Aggregate Weights section of Inputs to configure the weights).
• The coloring conditions, divergence levels and the Hi/Lo channel always apply to the Main line, whichever calculation you decide to use for it.
• The color of lines 2 and 3 are fixed but can be set in the "Colors" section of Inputs.
• You can change the thickness of each line.
• When the aggregate line is displayed, higher timeframe values are only used in its calculation when they become available in the chart's history,
otherwise the aggregate line would appear much later on the chart. To indicate when each higher timeframe value becomes available,
a small label appears near the centerline.
• Divergences can be shown as small dots on the centerline.
• Divergence levels can be shown. The level and fill are determined by the oscillator's position relative to the last saved divergence level.
• Bull/bear markers can be displayed. They occur whenever a new bull/bear state is determined by the "Main Line Coloring Conditions".
• The Hi/Lo (Donchian) channel can be displayed, and its period defined.
• The background can display the state of any one of 11 different conditions.
• The resolutions used for the higher timeframes can be displayed to the right of the last bar's value.
• Four key values are always displayed in the Data Window (fourth icon down to the right of your chart):
oscillator values for the chart, medium and highest timeframes, and the oscillator's instant value before it is averaged.
Main Line Coloring Conditions
• Nine different conditions can be selected to determine the bull/bear coloring of the main line. All conditions set to "ON" must be met to determine the bull/bear state.
• A volatility state can also be used to filter the conditions.
• When the coloring conditions and the filter do not allow for a bull/bear state to be determined, the neutral color is used.
Signal
• Seven different averages can be used to calculate the average of the oscillator's value.
• The average's period can be set. A period of one will show the instant value of the oscillator,
provided you don't use linear regression or the Hull MA as they do not work with a period of one.
• An external signal can be used as the oscillator's instant value. If an already averaged external value is used, set the period to one in this indicator.
• For the cases where an external signal is used, a centerline value can be set.
Higher Timeframes
• The two higher timeframes are named Medium timeframe and Highest timeframe . They can be determined using one of three methods:
• Auto-steps: the higher timeframes are determined using the chart's resolution. If the chart uses a seconds resolution, for example,
the medium and highest resolutions will be 15 and 60 minutes.
• Multiples: the timeframes are calculated using a multiple of the chart's resolution, which you can set.
• Fixed: the set timeframes do not change with the chart's resolution.
Repainting
• Repainting can be controlled separately for the chart's value and the higher timeframe values.
• The default is a repainting chart value and non-repainting higher timeframe values. The Aggregate line will thus repaint by default,
as it uses the chart's value along with the higher timeframes values.
Aggregate Weights
• The weight of each component of the Aggregate line can be set.
• The default is equal weights for the three components, meaning that the chart's value accounts for one third of the weight in the Aggregate.
High Volatility
• This provides control over the volatility filter used in the Main line's coloring conditions and the background display.
• Volatility is determined to be high when the short-term ATR is greater than the long-term ATR.
Colors
• You can define your own colors for all of the oscillator's plots.
• The default colors will perform well on both white and black chart backgrounds.
Alerts
• An alert can be defined for the script. The alert will trigger whenever a bull/bear marker appears in the indicator's display.
The particular combination of coloring conditions and the display of bull/bear markers when you create the alert will thus determine when the alert triggers.
Once the alerts are created, subsequent changes to the conditions controlling the display of markers will not affect the existing alert(s).
• You can create multiple alerts from this script, each triggering on different conditions.
Backtesting & Trading Engine Signal Line
• An invisible plot named "BTE Signal" is provided. It can be used as an entry signal when connected to the PineCoders Backtesting & Trading Engine as an external input.
It will generate an entry whenever a marker is displayed.
█ NOTES
• I do not know for sure if the calculations in Efficient Work are original. I apologize if they are not.
• Because this version of Efficient Work only has access to OHLC information, it cannot measure the total distance traveled through all of a bar's ticks, but the indicator nonetheless behaves in a manner consistent with the intentions underlying its design.
For Pine coders
This code was written using the following standards:
• The PineCoders Coding Conventions for Pine .
• A modified version of the PineCoders MTF Oscillator Framework and MTF Selection Framework .
