Regression Channel [DW]This is an experimental study which calculates a linear regression channel over a specified period or interval using custom moving average types for its calculations.
Linear regression is a linear approach to modeling the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables.
In linear regression, the relationships are modeled using linear predictor functions whose unknown model parameters are estimated from the data.
The regression channel in this study is modeled using the least squares approach with four base average types to choose from:
-> Arnaud Legoux Moving Average (ALMA)
-> Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
-> Simple Moving Average (SMA)
-> Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWMA)
When using VWMA, if no volume is present, the calculation will automatically switch to tick volume, making it compatible with any cryptocurrency, stock, currency pair, or index you want to analyze.
There are two window types for calculation in this script as well:
-> Continuous, which generates a regression model over a fixed number of bars continuously.
-> Interval, which generates a regression model that only moves its starting point when a new interval starts. The number of bars for calculation cumulatively increases until the end of the interval.
The channel is generated by calculating standard deviation multiplied by the channel width coefficient, adding it to and subtracting it from the regression line, then dividing it into quartiles.
To observe the path of the regression, I've included a tracer line, which follows the current point of the regression line. This is also referred to as a Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA).
For added predictive capability, there is an option to extend the channel lines into the future.
A custom bar color scheme based on channel direction and price proximity to the current regression value is included.
I don't necessarily recommend using this tool as a standalone, but rather as a supplement to your analysis systems.
Regression analysis is far from an exact science. However, with the right combination of tools and strategies in place, it can greatly enhance your analysis and trading.
Regression
Forecasting - Quadratic RegressionThis script is written totally thanks to Alex Grover (). Here it is implemented in conjunction with the seasonal forecast I showed in one of my previous posts. It takes the calculated QReg curve and extends its last section (Season) into the future (Forecasted periods).
Forecasting - Locally Weighted Regression (rescaled)UPDATE: the original version works only with BTC. Here's a general version with rescaling.
Forecasting - Vanilla Locally Weighted RegressionThere is not much to say - just vanilla locally weighted regression in PineScript 4.
see: medium.com
also: cs229.stanford.edu
Linear Regression Trend ChannelThis is my first public release of indicator code and my PSv4.0 version of "Linear Regression Channel", as it is more commonly known. It replicates TV's built-in "Linear Regression" without the distraction of heavy red/blue fill bleeding into other indicators. We can't fill() line.new() at this time in Pine Script anyways. I entitled it Linear Regression Trend Channel, simply because it seems more accurate as a proper description. I nicely packaged this to the size of an ordinary napkin within 20 lines of compact code, simplifying the math to the most efficient script I could devise that fits in your pocket. This is commonly what my dense intricate code looks like behind the veil, and if you are wondering why there is no notes, that's because the notation is in the variable naming. I excluded Pearson correlation because it doesn't seem very useful to me, and it would comprise of additional lines of code I would rather avoid in this public release. Pearson correlation is included in my invite-only advanced version of "Enhanced Linear Regression Trend Channel", where I have taken Linear Regression Channeling to another level of fully featured novel attainability using this original source code.
Features List Includes:
"Period" adjustment
"Deviation(s)" adjustment
"Extend Method" option to extend or not extend the upper, medial, and lower channeling
Showcased in the chart below is my free to use "Enhanced Schaff Trend Cycle Indicator", having a common appeal to TV users frequently. If you do have any questions or comments regarding this indicator, I will consider your inquiries, thoughts, and ideas presented below in the comments section, when time provides it. As always, "Like" it if you simply just like it with a proper thumbs up, and also return to my scripts list occasionally for additional postings. Have a profitable future everyone!
Time Series ForecastIntroduction
Forecasting is a blurry science that deal with lot of uncertainty. Most of the time forecasting is made with the assumption that past values can be used to forecast a time series, the accuracy of the forecast depend on the type of time series, the pre-processing applied to it, the forecast model and the parameters of the model.
In tradingview we don't have much forecasting models appart from the linear regression which is definitely not adapted to forecast financial markets, instead we mainly use it as support/resistance indicator. So i wanted to try making a forecasting tool based on the lsma that might provide something at least interesting, i hope you find an use to it.
The Method
Remember that the regression model and the lsma are closely related, both share the same equation ax + b but the lsma will use running parameters while a and b are constants in a linear regression, the last point of the lsma of period p is the last point of the linear regression that fit a line to the price at time p to 1, try to add a linear regression with count = 100 and an lsma of length = 100 and you will see, this is why the lsma is also called "end point moving average".
The forecast of the linear regression is the linear extrapolation of the fitted line, however the proposed indicator forecast is the linear extrapolation between the value of the lsma at time length and the last value of the lsma when short term extrapolation is false, when short term extrapolation is checked the forecast is the linear extrapolation between the lsma value prior to the last point and the last lsma value.
long term extrapolation, length = 1000
short term extrapolation, length = 1000
How To Use
Intervals are create from the running mean absolute error between the price and the lsma. Those intervals can be interpreted as possible support and resistance levels when using long term extrapolation, make sure that the intervals have been priorly tested, this mean the intervals are more significants.
The short term extrapolation is made with the assumption that the price will follow the last two lsma points direction, the forecast tend to become inaccurate during a trend change or when noise affect heavily the lsma.
You can test both method accuracy with the replay mode.
Comparison With The Linear Regression
Both methods share similitudes, but they have different results, lets compare them.
In blue the indicator and in red a linear regression of both period 200, the linear regression is always extremely conservative since she fit a line using the least squares method, at the contrary the indicator is less conservative which can be an advantage as well as a problem.
Conclusion
Linear models are good when what we want to forecast is approximately linear, thats not the case with market price and this is why other methods are used. But the use of the lsma to provide a forecast is still an interesting method that might require further studies.
Thanks for reading !
R2-Adaptive RegressionIntroduction
I already mentioned various problems associated with the lsma, one of them being overshoots, so here i propose to use an lsma using a developed and adaptive form of 1st order polynomial to provide several improvements to the lsma. This indicator will adapt to various coefficient of determinations while also using various recursions.
More In Depth
A 1st order polynomial is in the form : y = ax + b , our indicator however will use : y = a*x + a1*x1 + (1 - (a + a1))*y , where a is the coefficient of determination of a simple lsma and a1 the coefficient of determination of an lsma who try to best fit y to the price.
In some cases the coefficient of determination or r-squared is simply the squared correlation between the input and the lsma. The r-squared can tell you if something is trending or not because its the correlation between the rough price containing noise and an estimate of the trend (lsma) . Therefore the filter give more weight to x or x1 based on their respective r-squared, when both r-squared is low the filter give more weight to its precedent output value.
Comparison
lsma and R2 with both length = 100
The result of the R2 is rougher, faster, have less overshoot than the lsma and also adapt to market conditions.
Longer/Shorter terms period can increase the error compared to the lsma because of the R2 trying to adapt to the r-squared. The R2 can also provide good fits when there is an edge, this is due to the part where the lsma fit the filter output to the input (y2)
Conclusion
I presented a new kind of lsma that adapt itself to various coefficient of determination. The indicator can reduce the sum of squares because of its ability to reduce overshoot as well as remaining stationary when price is not trending. It can be interesting to apply exponential averaging with various smoothing constant as long as you use : (1- (alpha+alpha1)) at the end.
Thanks for reading
Pseudo Polynomial ChannelIntroduction
Back when i started using pine i made a script called periodic channel who aimed to rescale an average correlated sine wave to the price...don't worked very well. So i tried to fix problems induced by the indicator without much success, i had to redo it from scratch while abandoning the idea of rescaling correlated smooth functions to the price, at that time i also received requests regarding polynomial channel, some plateformes included this indicator, this led me to the idea to estimate it in order to both respond to the periodic channel problems and the requests i received, i have tried many many things and recently i tweaked a linear extrapolation to have an approximation.
Linear Extrapolation To Pseudo Polynomial Regression
I could be wrong but a polynomial regression must use constant parameters in order to provide a really smooth output, at least constant for a set of time. The moving averages forms (Savitzky-Golay moving average) who smooth polynomials across a window to the data don't have such smoothness, so how to estimate a polynomial regression while having a parameter providing control over the smoothness, a response to this is by using a recursive linear extrapolation. I posted a linear extrapolation indicator long ago, i used the same formula while adding a function to morph the output and the input in the form of :
morph * output + (1-morph) * input
How can this provide an estimate of a polynomial regression ? Well i'm not even sure myself but if you use the output as input (morph = 1) for the linear extrapolation function you should get a rough estimate of a line, this is what i thought at first and it proved to be right
Based on this observation i thought that it would be possible to get polynomial results by lowering morph, and as expected it worked well but showed a periodic pattern, this is why i smooth k in line 10.
0.9 for morph work well, higher values create sometimes smoother results but damage heavily the estimation.
Parameters
Morph have been introduced earlier, it control the amount of output and input the linear extrapolation should process, lower values create rougher but more stables results, if you see that the estimation is going nuts lower morph or change length, also lower length if you increase morph .
High overshoot, morph to 0.8 can help have a better estimation at the cost of less smoothness.
Length control the indicator smoothing, this parameter differ heavily from other filters, therefore low values can create mid/long term smoothing, it can also depend on which market instrument you are applying it, so there are no fixed optimal length.
Mult control how spread the bands are, to do so mult multiply the cumulative mean error, you can change this error measurement by anything you want like standard deviation/atr/range but take into account that you may create a separate parameter to control the error instead of length . Mult can be a float and like length can have different optimal values depending on the market the indicator is applied to.
Flatten do exactly what is name imply, it flatten the overall output to have a better estimation, can be a float. The result is less smooth.
Flatten = 2
More Exemples
BTCUSD length = 25 and mult = 4
XPDUSD length = 25 and mult = 1
ALPHABET length = 6 and morph = 0.99
Conclusion
I tried to estimate a polynomial channel by using recursion in the linear extrapolation function. This build is way more stable than the periodic channel but its still a bit inaccurate in my opinion. I hope this code can still help someone build something really nice, if so share your results :)
I apologize for those expecting a legit polynomial channel build but i really don't know how to do that, as i said parameters for the regression must be constants, i hope it still fine :)
Thanks for reading !
Fast Z-ScoreIntroduction
The ability of the least squares moving average to provide a great low lag filter is something i always liked, however the least squares moving average can have other uses, one of them is using it with the z-score to provide a fast smoothing oscillator.
The Indicator
The indicator aim to provide fast and smooth results. length control the smoothness.
The calculation is inspired from my sample correlation coefficient estimation described here
Instead of using the difference between a moving average of period length/2 and a moving average of period length , we use the difference between a lsma of period length/2 and a lsma of period length , this difference is then divided by the standard deviation. All those calculations use the price smoothed by a moving average as source.
The yellow version don't divide the difference by a standard deviation, you can that it is less reactive. Both version have length = 200
Conclusion
I presented a smooth and responsive version of a z-score, the result could be used to estimate an even faster lsma by using the line rescaling technique and our indicator as correlation coefficient.
Hope you like it, feel free to modify it and share your results ! :)
Notes
I have been requested a lot of indicators lately, from mt4 translations to more complex time series analysis methods, this accumulation of work made that it is impossible for me to publish those within a short period of time, also some are really complex. I apologize in advance for the inconvenience, i will try to do my best !
Robust Weighting OscillatorIntroduction
A simple oscillator using a modified lowess architecture, good in term of smoothness and reactivity.
Lowess Regression
Lowess or local regression is a non-parametric (can be used with data not fitting a normal distribution) smoothing method. This method fit a curve to the data using least squares.
In order to have a lowess regression one must use tricube kernel for the weightings w , the weightings are determined using a k-nearest-neighbor model.
lowess is then calculated like so :
Σ (wG(y-a-bx)^2)
Our indicator use G , a , b and remove the square as well as replacing x by y
Conclusion
The oscillator is simple and nothing revolutionary but its still interesting to have new indicators.
Lowess would be a great method to be made on pinescript, i have an estimate but its not that good. Some codes use a simple line equation in order to estimate a lowess smoother, i can describe it as ax + b where a is a smooth oscillator, b some kind of filter defined by lp + bp with lp a smooth low pass filter and bp a bandpass filter, x is a variable dependent of the smoothing span.
Dorsey InertiaThis indicator was originally developed by Donald Dorsey (Stocks & Commodities, V.13:9 (September, 1995): "Refining the Relative Volatility Index").
Inertia is based on Relative Volatility Index (RVI) smoothed using linear regression.
In physics, inertia is the tendency of an object to resist to acceleration. Dorsey chose this name because he believes that trend and inertia are related and that it takes more effort and energy to reverse the direction of a stock or market than to keep it in the same direction. He argues that the volatility is the simplest and most accurate measure of inertia.
When the indicator is below 50, it signals bearish market sentiment and when the indicator is above 50 it signals a bullish trend.
Good luck!
Kirshenbaum BandsThis indicator was originally developed by Paul Kirshenbaum, a mathematician with a Ph.D. in economics from New York University.
It uses the standard error of linear regression lines of the closing price to determine band width. This has the effect of measuring volatility around the current trend, rather than measuring volatility for changes in trend.
Good luck!
Quadratic Regression Slope [DW]This is a study geared toward identifying price trends using Quadratic regression.
Quadratic regression is the process of finding the equation of a parabola that best fits the set of data being analyzed.
In this study, first a quadratic regression curve is calculated, then the slope of the curve is calculated and plotted.
Custom bar colors are included. The color scheme is based on whether the slope is positive or negative, and whether it is increasing or decreasing.
Quadratic RegressionA quadratic regression is the process of finding the equation that best fits a set of data.This form of regression is mainly used for smoothing data shaped like a parabola.
Because we can use short/midterm/longterm periods we can say that we use a Quadratic Least Squares Moving Average or a Moving Quadratic Regression.
Like the Linear Regression (LSMA) a Quadratic regression attempt to minimize the sum of squares (sum of the squared difference between a set of data and an estimator), this is why
those kinds of filters have low lag .
Here the difference between a Least Squared Moving Average ( green ) and a Quadratic Regression ( red ) of both period 500
Here it look like the Quadratic Regression have a best fit than the LSMA
Regression OscillatorRegression Oscillator indicator script.
This indicator was originally developed by Richard Goedde (Stocks & Commodities V.15:3, Timing A Stock Using The Regression Oscillator).
Line Regression Intercept Linear Regression Intercept is one of the indicators calculated by using the
Linear Regression technique. Linear regression indicates the value of the Y
(generally the price) when the value of X (the time series) is 0. Linear
Regression Intercept is used along with the Linear Regression Slope to create
the Linear Regression Line. The Linear Regression Intercept along with the Slope
creates the Regression line.
Fractal Regression Bands [DW]This study is an experimental regression curve built around fractal and ATR calculations.
First, Williams Fractals are calculated, and used as anchoring points.
Next, high anchor points are connected to negative sloping lines, and low anchor points to positive sloping lines. The slope is a specified percentage of the current ATR over the sampling period.
The median between the positive and negative sloping lines is then calculated, then the best fit line (linear regression) of the median is calculated to generate the basis line.
Lastly, a Golden Mean ATR is taken of price over the sampling period and multiplied by 1/2, 1, 2, and 3. The results are added and subtracted from the basis line to generate the bands.
Williams Fractals are included in the plots. The color scheme indicated whether each fractal is engulfing or non-engulfing.
Custom bar color scheme is included.
Momentum Linear RegressionThe original script was posted on ProRealCode by user Nicolas.
This is an indicator made of the linear regression applied to the rate of change of price (or momentum). I made a simple signal line just by duplicating the first one within a period decay in the past, to make those 2 lines cross. You can add more periods decay to made signal smoother with less false entry.
Function 2 Point Line using UNIX TIMESTAMP V1experimental:
draws a line from 2 vectors(price, time)
update:
reformatted the function,
added automatic detection of the period multiplier by approximation(gets a bit goofy with stocks/week time),
example using timestamp() function.
offsetting is still bugged, i cant find a way around it atm.
ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES Slope by @XeL_ArjonaORDINARY LEAST SQUARES Slope by @XeL_Arjona
Ver. 1 by Ricardo M Arjona @XeL_Arjona
DISCLAIMER:
The Following indicator/code IS NOT intended to be a formal investment advice or recommendation by the author, nor should be construed as such. Users will be fully responsible by their use regarding their own trading vehicles/assets.
The embedded code and ideas within this work are FREELY AND PUBLICLY available on the Web for NON LUCRATIVE ACTIVITIES and must remain as is.
WHAT'S THIS?
This is a REAL mathematically approach of an ORDINARY LEAST SQUARES LINE FITTING SLOPE as TradingView currently don't have a native one embedded, neither as a pine function. Other "Sope" indicators from this linear regression model I found on public library are currently based on "momentum" rather tan slope.
Any modifications or additions are quite welcome!
Cheers!
@XeL_Arjona
