Paradigm Shift: Delivery State

Description by way of Example using weekly and 4h readings. THIS INDICATOR IS NOT MADE TO OPERATE BELOW A 4H chart. It is looking for Weekly and 4h price delivery that an ICT trader would call messy. Spikes well below OB but which then turn in the logical direction. A series of FVG that are never returned to or themselves are printed over but then turn support or resistance against the run through. So it is designed to indicate the overall level of stress on algorithm delivery. When you see a significantly higher stress level on the 4h trading is still doable but be careful of sloppy delivery. When you see a significant stress level on the weekly then be very very careful on the lower levels and consider staying out for the time being. The state of price delivery can be seen by anyone. But I have incorporated readings of the global bond market and currency correlations as confluent evidence of the reading for the state of price delivery. The term "grinder" is my word for algorithmic delivery. Contrary to ICT I believe that buying and selling pressure are real determinants of market movement up or down. However, I believe that that pressure is pushed through the algo like meat through a meat grinder to ensure a fair and equitable and efficient delivery of that pressure. So price always moves according to algorithmic principles, but those principles are driven by external pressure. The greater the pressure the more the algo stutters and gaps in its effort to smooth out an efficient delivery of price. This Indicator is looking for those stressors.
The Weekly State: "Symmetrical" / Stress: 2%
* What it means: At the highest level, the "New Paradigm" has not yet broken the system. A 2% stress level is effectively "Background Noise." This indicates that the global bond market and currency correlations are currently holding their historical norms.
* The Price Delivery: Because it is Symmetrical, the "Grinder" is in an efficient mode. Weekly expansions are likely being met with orderly retracements. There are no "Ominous" breakaway gaps on the weekly timeframe yet.
* The Dalio View: We are still in the "Accumulation" or "Buffering" phase of the cycle. The systemic heart attack is not happening this week.
2. The 4h State: "Saturated" / Stress: 44%
* What it means: While the Weekly is calm, the 4h is heating up. A 44% stress level means that local bond volatility (the US10Y proxy) is higher than it has been 44% of the time over the last year. This is a significant "Step-Up" in pressure.
* The Price Delivery: Because it is Saturated, the 4h "Grinder" is starting to struggle with the "meat" being fed into it.
* The Result: You will likely see "Deep Stop Runs" and "PD Array Overtravel." Price might not just tap an Order Block; it might blast 15 pips through it before reversing.
* Delivery is "Unclean": The 4h Fair Value Gaps might only get partially filled, or price might leave "jagged" wicks that make lower-timeframe entries frustrating.
3. How to Trade This Divergence (Practical Logic)
When the Higher Timeframe (HTF) is stable (2%) but the Lower Timeframe (LTF) is stressed (44%), it creates a specific environment:
* The "Opaque Trap": You might see a perfect ICT Silver Bullet setup on the 15m, but because the 4h is "Saturated," the setup will likely be messier than usual. You should expect "Judas Swings" to be more violent and "FVG Retracements" to be less precise.
* Confidence in the HTF: Since the Weekly is at 2%, you can trust the Overall Direction. If the Weekly is bullish, any "Saturated" mess on the 4h is likely just an aggressive re-accumulation rather than a systemic reversal.
* The "Stay Out" Warning: You only need to worry when that 4h Stress (44%) begins to "infect" the Weekly. If the Weekly Stress moves from 2% to 20% to 50%, that is your signal that the Paradigm is Shifting and the "Grinder" is about to start teleporting price.