Institutional Value Relocation Verdict

Summary in one paragraph
Value Relocation Verdict ARD is an acceptance versus rejection classifier for liquid instruments on intraday to daily timeframes. It helps you act only when multiple conditions align after price pushes beyond a boundary. It is original because it treats every break as a probe and scores whether value is relocating using a break anchored VWAP relocation metric fused with time outside, extension, outside volume share, pullback quality, and failure velocity back into value. Add it to a clean chart, read the compact decision table, and use the visuals or alerts. Shapes can move while the bar is open and settle on close. For conservative alerts select on bar close.

Scope and intent
• Markets. Major FX pairs, index futures, large cap equities, liquid crypto
• Timeframes. One minute to daily
• Default demo used in the publication. NQ1! on 15 minute
• Purpose. Prevent trading raw breakouts and raw fades before the market proves acceptance or rejection
• Limits. This is an indicator. It does not place orders and does not simulate fills

Originality and usefulness
This is not a mashup of common indicators. It is a state machine that measures what happens after a boundary is breached.
• Unique concept or fusion. Breaks are treated as probes and classified by value relocation using break anchored VWAP plus behavioral metrics outside the boundary
• What failure mode it addresses. False starts in chop, one bar breakouts that reverse, and fades taken too early when value is actually relocating
• Testability. The table shows the live decision, the two competing scores, and the driver metrics so users can verify why a suggestion appears
• Portable yardstick. All distances are normalized in ATR units so thresholds travel better across symbols
• Protected scripts. Public open source, implementation visible

Method overview in plain language

Base measures
• Range basis. True Range smoothed with ATR over ATR length
• Value basis. Session anchored VWAP defines a value center, with a configurable VWAP band as the value zone

Components
• Boundary selection. Choose prior day high and low, opening range, prior week high and low, VWAP band edges, or custom levels
• Probe state. A probe begins when price crosses a boundary. The boundary is frozen for the probe so time outside and velocity are measured consistently
• Acceptance score. A 0 to 100 score built from closes outside, max extension beyond the boundary, outside volume ratio, break anchored VWAP relocation, defense touches, expansion context, and a pullback penalty
• Rejection score. Evaluated only when price re enters the boundary. It fuses sweep size, snapback depth, fail velocity, speed of re entry, RVOL, compression context, and a value zone re entry bonus
• Context regime. A light regime classifier uses session VWAP slope and a higher timeframe EMA slope to bias acceptance slightly in trend direction and boost rejection slightly in ranges
• Session windows optional. Session follows the exchange time of the chart. Verify when changing symbol or venue

Fusion rule
• Two separate scores are maintained during a probe: Acceptance score and Rejection risk
• During the probe, the table shows a Lean decision based on the score spread: Acceptance score minus Rejection risk
• Thresholds for ACC and REJ are explicit in Inputs and the drivers are visible in the table

Signal rule
• ACC Up appears when a probe above the boundary reaches acceptance score threshold for the configured confirm bars, closes remain outside the buffer, and chase distance is not excessive
• ACC Down is symmetric for probes below the boundary
• REJ Up appears when price re enters the boundary after probing above and rejection score meets its threshold
• REJ Down is symmetric for probes below the boundary
• WAIT shows when no probe is active or when neither side has a clear edge

What you will see on the chart
• Active boundary line. Thick line at the frozen probe boundary
• Value zone. Optional VWAP band fill and optional VWAP lines for context
• Probe band. Optional thin band around the boundary equal to the outside buffer
• Break VWAP. Optional line during the probe that shows break anchored VWAP
• Markers. ACC and REJ markers on the bar where the model resolves
• Optional plan overlay. Entry, stop, and target lines for the last resolved signal, informational only
• Compact table. A decision dashboard with Lean, State, Regime, ACC score, REJ risk, and the drivers

Table fields and quick reading guide
• Decision. Lean ACC, Lean REJ, or Wait
• State. Idle, Probe Above, Probe Below, Waiting Levels, or Out of Session
• Regime. Trend Up, Trend Down, or Range
• ACC Score. 0 to 100 plus a bar gauge
• REJ Risk. 0 to 100 plus a bar gauge
• Boundary. Frozen boundary price during the probe
• Value VWAP. Session anchored VWAP price
• Outside. Closes outside count versus Accept min closes outside
• Delta. ACC Score minus REJ Risk, used to express separation
• Drivers shown by preset. Extension ATR, Reloc ATR, Out Vol, Pull ATR, RVOL, Fail Vel, Sweep ATR, Snap ATR, Expansion, Compression
Reading tip. When Session is ON and Delta shows clear separation, outcomes tend to be easier to manage than when both scores are similar.

Inputs with guidance

Setup
• Theme. Dark or Light. Matches chart background for readability
• Preset. Minimal, Standard, Pro. Minimal is the clean chart default
• Session and Require session. Typical use is ON for index futures and intraday equity sessions
• Cooldown bars. Typical range 0 to 15. Higher reduces clustered probes
• Max probe bars. Typical range 20 to 120. Lower avoids stale probes
• Decision delta. Typical range 10 to 25. Higher demands more separation before leaning

Levels
• Mode. Prev Day HL, Opening Range, Prev Week HL, VWAP Band, Custom
• Opening range minutes. Typical 15 to 60 on intraday charts
• Break trigger. Close is more conservative. Wick is earlier but noisier
• VWAP band width ATR. Typical 0.5 to 1.5
• Custom upper and Custom lower. Only active in Custom mode. Both must be greater than 0 and upper must be greater than lower

Scoring
• Outside buffer ATR. Typical 0.05 to 0.30. Higher requires stronger closes outside
• Accept min closes outside. Typical 3 to 10. Higher confirms slower relocations
• Accept min extension ATR. Typical 0.6 to 1.8. Higher demands stronger expansion
• Accept min outside volume ratio. Typical 0.45 to 0.80. Higher demands conviction
• Accept min relocation ATR. Typical 0.10 to 0.50. Higher demands value shift beyond the boundary
• Accept max pullback ATR. Typical 0.30 to 1.00. Lower penalizes weak holding
• Accept confirm bars. Typical 1 to 3. Higher reduces one bar acceptance
• Accept score threshold. Typical 60 to 85
• Accept max chase distance ATR. Typical 0.8 to 2.0. Lower avoids late entries
• Defense touches needed and defense touch distance ATR. Use 0 to disable. Typical 1 to 2 touches, 0.15 to 0.35 distance

Rejection scoring
• Reject max closes outside before re entry. Typical 2 to 6. Lower demands fast failure
• Reject min fail velocity. Typical 0.3 to 1.0. Higher demands sharper failure
• RVOL length and reject min RVOL. Typical 20 and 1.1 to 1.8
• Reject min sweep ATR and reject min snapback ATR. Typical sweep 0.25 to 0.80, snap 0.10 to 0.50
• Reject score threshold. Typical 60 to 85

Context
• Context timeframe. Typical 15, 30, or 60 minutes for intraday
• Context EMA length. Typical 34 to 100
• VWAP slope bars and trend slope threshold. Typical 4 to 12 bars, threshold 0.05 to 0.15
• Bias scores by regime. ON by default. Turn OFF if you want pure probe math only

UI
• Show signals, probe band, value fill, value lines, signal labels
• Table position and table size
Clean default. Minimal preset with value fill ON, value lines OFF, and labels OFF

Usage recipes

Intraday trend focus
• Preset Standard
• Context timeframe 30
• Bias scores by regime ON
• Accept score threshold 75
• Reject score threshold 80
• Break trigger Close
• Decision delta 20

Intraday mean reversion focus
• Preset Standard
• Mode Prev Day HL or Opening Range
• Bias scores by regime ON
• Reject max closes outside 3
• Reject min sweep 0.35 and snapback 0.20
• Reject score threshold 70
• Decision delta 15

Swing continuation
• Timeframe 60 minutes to 4 hours
• Context timeframe 1 day
• Increase Accept min closes outside and Accept confirm bars
• Increase Max probe bars
• Use Close trigger
• Raise Decision delta


Realism and responsible publication
• No performance claims. Past results never guarantee future outcomes
• No certainty about the future
• Intrabar motion reminder. Shapes can move while a bar forms and settle on close
• Standard candles are recommended. Non standard chart types change OHLC and can alter the meaning of sweeps and snapbacks

Honest limitations and failure modes
• Economic releases and thin liquidity can invalidate sweep and relocation behavior
• Gap heavy symbols can distort intrabar probe stats on small timeframes
• Very quiet regimes reduce score separation. Consider longer windows or higher thresholds
• Session windows use the exchange time of the chart
• Custom mode requires valid upper and lower values or the script will wait

Open source reuse and credits
• None

Legal
Education and research only. Not investment advice. You are responsible for your decisions. Test on historical data and in simulation before any live use. Use realistic costs.