Risk Context + Position Sizing

20 ก.ค.

What This Indicator Does (And Doesn't Do)

This is NOT a buy/sell signal indicator. Instead, it's a risk management tool that helps you understand two critical things:

1. How volatile the market is right now (compared to recent history)
   
2. How much you should risk on your next trade based on that volatility
   

The Core Problem It Solves
Imagine you always risk the same amount on every trade - say $100. But sometimes the market is calm and predictable, other times it's wild and unpredictable. This indicator says: "Hey, the market is going crazy right now - maybe only risk $70 instead of your usual $100."

How It Works
Measures Market "Nervousness"

• Uses ATR (Average True Range) to measure how much prices typically move each day
  
• Compares today's volatility to the past 100 days
  
• Shows you a percentile (0-100%) - higher = more volatile
  

Categorizes Risk Environment

• LOW (green): Market is calm, you can size up slightly
  
• NORMAL: Standard conditions, use your normal position size
  
• HIGH (red): Market is jumpy, reduce your position size
  
• EXTREME (dark red): Market is in chaos, significantly reduce size
  

Important Disclaimers

• This doesn't predict price direction - it only measures current market stress
  
• You still need a trading strategy - this just helps you size it properly
  
• Past volatility doesn't guarantee future volatility
  
• Always combine with proper stop losses and risk management
  

20 ก.ค.

เอกสารเผยแพร่

Improved position sizing logic by replacing step-based scaling with a smoother volatility-adjusted model. This enhances risk calibration and responsiveness to market conditions.