The Lazy Trader - Index (ETF) Trend Following Robot

4 ก.ย. 2020

50/150 moving average, index (ETF) trend following robot. Coded for people who cannot psychologically handle dollar-cost-averaging through bear markets and extreme drawdowns (although DCA can produce better results eventually), this robot helps you to avoid bear markets. Be a fair-weathered friend of Mr Market, and only take up his offer when the sun is shining! Designed for the lazy trader who really doesn't care...

Recommended Chart Settings:

Asset Class: ETF
Time Frame: Daily

Necessary ETF Macro Conditions:

a) Country must have healthy demographics, good ratio of young > old
b) Country population must be increasing
c) Country must be experiencing price-inflation

Default Robot Settings:

Slow Moving Average: 50 (integer) //adjust to suit your underlying index
Fast Moving Average: 150 (integer) //adjust to suit your underlying index
Bullish Slope Angle: 5 (degrees) //up angle of moving averages
Bearish Slope Angle: -5 (degrees) //down angle of moving averages
Average True Range: 14 (integer) //input for slope-angle formula
Risk: 100 (%) //100% risk means using all equity per trade

ETF Test Results (Default Settings):

SPY (1993 to 2020, 27 years), 332% profit, 20 trades, 6.4 profit factor, 7% drawdown
EWG (1996 to 2020, 24 years), 310% profit, 18 trades, 3.7 profit factor, 10% drawdown
EWH (1996 to 2020, 24 years), 4% loss, 26 trades, 0.9 profit factor, 36% drawdown
QQQ (1999 to 2020, 21 years), 232% profit, 17 trades, 3.6 profit factor, 2% drawdown
EEM (2003 to 2020, 17 years), 73% profit, 17 trades, 1.1 profit factor, 3% drawdown
GXC (2007 to 2020, 13 years), 18% profit, 14 trades, 1.3 profit factor, 26% drawdown
BKF (2009 to 2020, 11 years), 11% profit, 13 trades, 1.2 profit factor, 33% drawdown

A longer time in the markets is better, with the exception of EWH. 6 out of 7 tested ETFs were profitable, feel free to test on your favourite ETF (default settings) and comment below.

Risk Warning:

Not tested on commodities nor other financial products like currencies (code will not work), feel free to leave comments below.

Moving Average Slope Angle Formula:

Reproduced and modified from source: