Jobs data week, GOLD corrects with steady trend

30 ก.ย.

XAUUSD rebounded slightly this past weekend on Friday (September 27) as traders received the latest US data, but gold also hit a new all-time record this past week due to Expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further.
Although the latest US consumer spending and inflation data reinforced expectations that the US central bank will cut interest rates further in the coming months, it also failed to provide clarity on the question. How deep will the Fed cut?

The US core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index showed inflation rose just 0.1% in August, below market expectations. This data increases market confidence that the Federal Reserve will continue to implement easy monetary policy.
However, the data gap compared to the same period is not really large, this makes the market begin to divide into two directions; How much will the Fed cut interest rates in the upcoming FOMC period, 50bps or 25bps.

As a non-interest-bearing asset, gold becomes more attractive in an interest rate cutting or low interest rate environment, which has pushed gold prices up about 14% this quarter, the best quarter since 2016.

The latest consumer spending and inflation data from the US were the main economic indicators influencing the gold market last week. Inflationary pressures have eased, signs of growth in consumer spending suggest the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates further for the rest of the year.

Currently, the market is expecting the Fed to cut another 75 basis points over the remainder of the year. This expectation has become the main driving force to help gold prices continue to increase this week, and looking into the future, this is still important support for gold's fundamental uptrend in the near future.

At the same time, global geopolitical tensions have added to market uncertainty. Uncertainties about the Middle East situation and the US presidential election have increased market demand for safe havens, further supporting gold prices.

This week will be a trading week with a lot of important macro data from the United States, the focus will be on non-farm employment data (NFP). It is expected that gold will have another turbulent trading week. market government.

Economic data to watch out for this week
Monday: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at the NABE meeting
Tuesday: European CPI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Employment
Wednesday: ADP jobs report
Thursday: Weekly unemployment claims, ISM services PMI
Friday: Nonfarm payroll report

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
On the daily chart, after gold corrected from $2,672 as target resistance, it recovered from the 0.786% Fibonacci extension support point noted by readers in the previous issue.
Although gold has corrected, structure and bullish conditions are still dominating the daily technical chart, with a short-term trend from the price channel and key support from the EMA21 and trend from the price channel.
However, the Relative Strength Index is falling from the top of the overbought zone, if it falls below the 80 level this could be seen as a signal for bearish space ahead.

With gold having increased for many days, it is very normal for a technical correction to occur. As long as gold remains in the price channel and above the EMA21, the trend and outlook are still bullish. In case gold is sold below 2,645 USD it will tend to decrease further to retest the 0.618% Fibonacci level without affecting the main uptrend.

Looking ahead, the trend and prospect of gold is technically bullish and the notable points will be listed as follows.
Support: 2,645USD
Resistance: 2,672 – 2,685USD

SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2696 - 2694⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2700

→Take Profit 1 2689
↨
→Take Profit 2 2684

BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2624 - 2626⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2620

→Take Profit 1 2631
↨
→Take Profit 2 2636

30 ก.ย.

ความคิดเห็น

30 ก.ย.

ความคิดเห็น

During the US session, Fed Chairman Powell is expected to give a speech on the economic outlook at the 66th annual meeting of the National Association for Business Economics. Most likely, he will not give any new information compared to the previous press conference because he has not yet announced a new CPI or NFP report. So this speech may be notable but probably won't make a big impact.

30 ก.ย.

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Gold continued to adjust sharply downward at the beginning of the week and bottomed at 2,630 USD/oz during the session. Profit-taking ahead of China's long holiday and cautious market sentiment appear to be putting pressure on XAU/USD as the market awaits Fed Chairman Powell's speech.

1 ต.ค.

ปิดการเทรด: ถึงเป้าหมายการทำกำไร

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1 ต.ค.

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World gold price recorded a slight increase of 2,636 USD/ounce, showing a recovery compared to the previous session. In the previous trading session, the price dropped to 2,629.5 USD/ounce due to pressure from signals of a moderate pace in the Fed's next interest rate easing cycle.

2 ต.ค.

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- DXY broke out of the Wedge pattern and closed above EMA21, showing a possible recovery from the previous downtrend.
- DXY could continue its upward momentum to retest 102.56 if the index breaks above 101.77 coinciding with the downtrend line.

2 ต.ค.

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ADP Employment change data are typically released two days before the official NFP report, which is also considered a preliminary indicator of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) jobs report. Job market data has become the focus of attention recently due to its growing impact on the Fed's latest monetary policy decisions.

2 ต.ค.

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Gold adjusted to fall deeply below 2,650 USD/oz

After soaring above 2,660 USD/oz due to Israel's threat of "retaliation" against Iran, gold prices have now dropped more than 150 pips to 2,648 USD/oz.

3 ต.ค.

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At the end of the trading session on October 2, the spot gold contract dropped 0.5% to 2,649.41 USD/oz. Gold prices rose more than 1% on October 1 after Iran launched missiles to attack Israel.

3 ต.ค.

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Gold prices traded with a downtrend for the second day in a row as the USD strengthened.
Expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in November were pushed back, helping the USD rise to its highest level in weeks.
Geopolitical risks continue to act as a driving force to limit XAU/USD's decline.

3 ต.ค.

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The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) US services PMI rose 3.4 points to 54.9 last month. The new orders index increased 6.4 points to its highest level since the beginning of 2023. The above data shows that the US economy is still quite solid at the end of the third quarter. Treasury yields and the S&P 500 index rose following the figures.

4 ต.ค.

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At the end of the trading session on October 3, the spot gold contract was almost flat at 2,657.89 USD/oz, after reaching a record high of 2,685.42 USD/oz.