Important data, GOLD traded quite narrowly ahead of FOMC

17 ก.ย.

XAUUSD there are many fluctuations but still maintain the main uptrend, on this trading day the market will receive US retail sales data, this data will have a certain influence on the decision of the Federal Reserve (FED) this week.

Today (Tuesday), the US Census Bureau will release retail sales data for August.
Economists expect US retail sales to fall 0.2% monthly in August, after rising 1% in July.
US retail sales data typically has a greater impact on financial markets, potentially influencing the trend of assets such as the US dollar and gold.
August data is expected to be lower than July's positive data and is expected to guide the extent of the Fed's interest rate cuts, favoring a 50 basis point cut instead of a 25 basis point cut. copy. Of course, this is negative for the US Dollar and positive for gold.

While retail sales data will be the primary focus today, the focus this week is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision due to be announced on Wednesday.

According to CME's "Fed Watch" tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September has jumped to 67.0%. Less than a week ago, the market believed the Fed would cut interest rates by 25 basis points, while only 25% believed the Fed would cut interest rates by 50 basis points. This is a signal that the possibility of a 50bps cut on Wednesday is becoming more solid.
Since gold does not yield interest, a low interest rate environment can reduce the opportunity cost of investing in gold, which is more beneficial for gold.

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
Temporarily, gold is still trading in a fairly narrow range but the main uptrend has not changed technically with the price channel as the main trend and the EMA21 moving average as the main support.

Gold's short-term uptrend is limited by the 0.618% Fibonacci extension, which readers noticed in the weekly publication on Sunday. For gold to have enough conditions to increase in price further, it needs to bring price activity above 2,582 USD, and this is also the current closest resistance level.

Even if gold has not been able to break the $2,582 level to reach the next short-term target level at the original price point of $2,600 and beyond the 0.786% Fibonacci level, it still has a bullish bias.

However, corrections can still occur because the technical principle is that the market will not be able to move in a straight line, and the immediate correction in the short term will be limited by the Fibonacci 0.50% price point of 2,561. USD, this is considered the closest support level currently.

During the day, gold's uptrend may encounter short-term corrections with notable price levels listed below.
Support: 2,575 – 2,561USD
Resistance: 2,600 – 2,612USD

SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2606 - 2604⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2610

→Take Profit 1 2599
↨
→Take Profit 2 2594

BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2544 - 2546⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2540

→Take Profit 1 2551
↨
→Take Profit 2 2556

17 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

(Focus) Median CPI: 2.3% y/y (Forecast: 2.2%. Previous: 2.4%)
(Focus) CPI trimmed: 2.4% y/y (Forecast: 2.5%. Previous: 2.7%)

18 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Gold prices slid off record levels during Tuesday's trading session after the US released a better-than-expected retail sales report - a data point that prompted the market to reduce bets on the possibility of the Fed opting for a big interest rate cut. In addition, investors also became more cautious and took partial profits before the Fed announced its interest rate decision on Wednesday.

18 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

18 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Regarding the gold market, although there may be a significant adjustment after the Fed meeting, gold prices are still expected to receive support from two main sources: activities from gold ETF investment funds. in Western countries and demand from the Indian market, which may increase the most in many years.

18 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

The Fed is expected to make a policy decision tonight. The central bank is expected to lower interest rates by at least 25bps, but traders are mixed on the extent of the Fed's cut. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders predict a 65% chance of a 50bps Fed cut and a 35% chance of a 25bps cut.

19 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Gold increased slightly at the beginning of the session after reversing a sharp decline yesterday. Gold benefited from the sharp decline in USD and government bond yields after the Fed policy decision, with a surge of more than 30 USD to a new historic peak at 2,600.14 USD. However, the recovery in USD and yields during and after Mr. Powell's press conference pushed gold to reverse and fall to around 2,550 USD. At the end of yesterday's session, gold adjusted to 2,556 USD, recording a decline of more than 10 USD.

19 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

According to data from the US Department of Labor on Thursday, initial claims fell by 12,000 to 219,000 in the week ended September 14. This figure is lower than the estimates of all surveys of economic experts. This period also corresponds to the survey for the September jobs report.

20 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Gold prices recovered on Thursday (September 19), when the US Federal Reserve (Fed) launched a monetary easing cycle with a 0.5 percentage point reduction in interest rates, pushing gold prices to highs. all-time, just a few cents below the key ceiling of $2,600/oz in the previous session.

20 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Gold prices hit a new record high above $2,610 on Friday on growing expectations that global central banks will "follow" the Fed in easing policy and cutting interest rates. Lower interest rates are positive for gold, as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, making gold more attractive to investors.

21 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

World gold prices increased sharply in the trading session on Friday (September 20), with spot gold prices officially surpassing the important barrier of 2,600 USD/oz for the first time in history. The possibility of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) continuing to cut interest rates and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East act as direct catalysts for this breakthrough in gold.

22 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

In a survey on Wall Street, 19 analysts participated in the survey, of which 47% said that gold prices would continue to increase, 47% said that gold prices would go sideways and only 11% predicted that gold prices would decrease. .

Similarly, in an online survey on Main Street, of the 189 investors who responded to the survey, 68% thought gold prices would increase, 15% thought gold prices would decrease and the remaining 17% predicted gold prices would decrease. horizontal.