GOLD slight correction after reaching 2,364 USD

4 ก.ค.

XAUUSD rallied sharply to test the $2,364 technical level as US economic data performed worse than expected, pressuring the dollar and driving gold prices higher. In addition, tensions in the Middle East showing signs of increasing also stimulate money flows into safe haven assets, and gold is the top choice.

Economic data released by the United States was weaker than expected, increasing market bets that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates in September.

Data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) shows business activity in the US services sector softened after reaching its highest level since August 2023. Along with a rise in the number of Americans filing Jobless claims and hiring by private companies were lower than expected, and employment data weakened, prompting markets to reprice the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts.

Data released Wednesday showed that in the week ended June 29, adjusted initial jobless claims in the United States were 238,000, above market expectations of 234,000. In the week ending June 22, the number of people continuing to apply for unemployment benefits after adjustment in the US was 1.858 million people, higher than market expectations and setting a new high since November. 2021.
The ADP jobs report showed private sector employment rose by 150,000 in June, falling for the third straight month and hitting a new low since January, below the 163,000 expected by economists. forecast.

Federal Reserve minutes released Wednesday showed officials at the June policy meeting had differing views on how long interest rates should remain high.
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) interest rate meeting that ended June 12 showed that while "some" officials emphasized the need for patience, "some" participants especially noting that continued weakness in the job market could lead to higher unemployment rates.
According to the minutes, officials reiterated that a rate cut would not be appropriate until more data reinforced their belief that inflation was on target. Despite recent signs that some progress has been made in fighting inflation, some policymakers maintain a willingness to raise interest rates if inflation remains high.

Traders' attention turns to Friday's nonfarm payrolls report as US markets will be closed on Thursday for the Independence Day holiday.

Geopolitical risks
Regarding the situation in the Middle East, the Israel Defense Forces issued a statement on July 3 saying at least 100 rockets were fired from Lebanon toward northern Israel. Hezbollah in Lebanon announced a missile attack in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon that day that killed a senior commander of the organization.
The Israeli army issued a statement early on the morning of July 3 confirming that Nasser, a core figure of Hezbollah in Lebanon, was killed in an Israeli airstrike.

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
On the daily chart, after increasing in price to reach 2,364 USD, please note that in yesterday's publication, gold is temporarily limited by this level, which is also the target price increase that For gold to open a new bullish cycle it needs to break the technical level of 2,364 USD.

Although the upward momentum of gold prices is limited, the overall picture still shows that gold prices have all the conditions to increase in price with major support except the EMA21 moving average and the nearest support level at the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. .

As long as gold maintains its price performance above the EMA21, it still has a bullish technical outlook in the short term, and once it breaks the $2,364 technical point, gold has the potential to resume its uptrend at the target level. Initial spending is about 2,400 USD.

During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following technical points.
Support: 2,345 – 2,340USD
Resistance: 2,364USD

🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2394 - 2392

⚰️SL: 2398

⬆️TP1: 2387
⬆️TP2: 2382

🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2334 - 2336

⚰️SL: 2330

⬆️TP1: 2341
⬆️TP2: 2346

4 ก.ค.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

The dollar declines after interest rate cut hopes rise

The US dollar fell in early European trade on Thursday as weak economic data raised expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while the pound rose as the UK headed to the polls.

At 13:34 Riyadh time, the dollar index, which measures the US currency against a basket of six other currencies, was trading 0.15% lower at 104.907, continuing the sharp declines seen overnight.

5 ก.ค.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

🔴The dollar falls to its lowest level in 3 weeks before the release of employment data

The US dollar fell sharply during major foreign exchange trading on Thursday, as market expectations rose regarding the Federal Reserve ending its monetary tightening policy.

7 ก.ค.

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่

Plan SELL Close 1/2 + 50pips. Move SL to Entry🔥

7 ก.ค.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

📌The trading plan for next week will be to buy if the price returns to test around the 2335 barrier, and to sell if the price approaches the 2440 area.

8 ก.ค.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

This week will be a busy week for financial markets due to the release of many important US economic information. On Tuesday and Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will give regular testimony on monetary policy before the US Congress. Next, the US Department of Labor will release the June consumer price index (CPI) report on Thursday and the producer price index (PPI) on Friday.

8 ก.ค.

ปิดการเทรด: ถึงเป้าหมายการทำกำไร

Plan SELL Close Full Hit TP2 + 120pips 🗡

8 ก.ค.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

🟢Treasury yields rise as investors look to inflation data due in week ahead

➡️U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Monday as investors looked ahead to key economic data due throughout the week, including fresh inflation insights.

8 ก.ค.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

🟢The US dollar begins the week's trading with a slight decline... Why?

The US dollar index witnessed clear downward pressure during global market transactions on Monday, after losing about 1% during the past week, affected by weak US economic data, which reinforced speculation about the possibility that the US Federal Reserve will begin reducing interest rates sooner than expected, which is something that... It may negatively affect future US dollar trading.

9 ก.ค.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

On the technical chart, XAU/USD has hit resistance at $2,390, a level that caused a reversal in April. The possibility of improving risk appetite in global financial markets is still possible, supported by financial reporting season. If XAU/USD breaks above the $2,390 mark, it could be an important signal, signaling a new attack on historic highs near 2,450.

9 ก.ค.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

On the daily chart time frame, XAUUSD has pared recent gains and is moving sideways near the downtrend line, where a further decline towards 2250 support could occur. Change in market structure above The lower time frame, through the formation of higher lows and higher highs, could indicate a potential recovery from 2250. Conversely, if XAUUSD breaks below the 2250 support level, the price could drop to 2180 - next potential support level. MACD is also below the zero threshold, indicating a bearish possibility.

9 ก.ค.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Fed's Powell: The latest labor market data sent a clear signal that the labor market has slowed considerably.

Fed's Powell: The labor market is more or less returning to pre-pandemic levels.

Fed's Powell: The next policy move is not likely to be a rate hike.