GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [29 July - 02 August]

28 ก.ค.

This week, the international gold price increased from 2,383 USD/oz to close to 2,432 in the first 2 trading sessions of the week, but then continuously decreased, at one point down to 2,353 USD/oz. After that, gold prices recovered and closed the week at 2,387 USD/oz.

Gold prices decreased in the last sessions of this week as investors took profits from profitable positions, because they are still concerned about short-term risks when the Central Bank of China has still temporarily stopped buying gold in the past 2 months.

Next week, there are two factors that are likely to have a strong impact on gold prices: the FED's July meeting taking place on Thursday and the US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report being released on Friday. In particular, the FED will definitely keep interest rates at the current level. However, what the market is interested in is whether FED Chairman Jerome Powell will change his tone on monetary policy direction. With the recently released US economic data, it is likely that the FED Chairman will still support the plan to cut interest rates in September. This may support gold prices next week.

Technically, on the H4 chart, you need to pay attention to two resistance levels, with support established around 2350, while resistance is at 2430. Next week, if the support level 2350 is broken, it is likely Gold price falls to the 2300 level. If the basic information supports the gold price, we need to see the gold price exceed 2430 to maintain the upward momentum.

Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,300 – 2,323 – 2,350USD
Resistance: 2,475 – 2,430USD

📌The short-term trading plan for next week will be to sell around 2431, buy around 2323. Then continue to wait to sell around 2475, wait to buy around 2300.

29 ก.ค.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

The issue of USD policy resurfaced after Trump's interview with Bloomberg, as part of his presidential re-election campaign. "We have a currency problem, as you know. It's the currency." he said during a discussion about policy priorities for a second term.

29 ก.ค.

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29 ก.ค.

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Total demand for bullion in the first half of the year fell nearly 6% year-on-year to 524 tons, according to the World Gold Council's quarterly report. Data also shows that jewelry purchases in the second quarter plummeted 52%, according to Bloomberg calculations.

29 ก.ค.

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🔴The dollar rises strongly and leads safe havens.. and the shekel collapses against it with losses of 1.8%

The US dollar rose in trading today, Monday, before the US opening by more than 0.3%, supported by an attempt at a safe haven with the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, while the British pound declines before the Bank of England meeting this week to set monetary policy.

30 ก.ค.

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Gold prices fell in the trading session on Monday (July 29), as the USD strengthened before the US Federal Reserve (Fed) began its two-day monetary policy meeting. Although gold prices are struggling at prices below 2,400 USD/oz, some analysts believe that gold prices are still capable of setting a new record this year.

30 ก.ค.

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Gold prices maintain a "modest" upward momentum as investors wait for the Fed's policy meeting to find new motivation

Gold prices increased slightly during the Asian session on Tuesday, stabilizing below the $2,400/oz mark. The underwhelming stock market, along with geopolitical risks stemming from conflicts in the Middle East, are the main factors supporting this safe-haven asset. Besides, the growing consensus that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin an interest rate cutting cycle in September is weighing on the USD and continuing to support gold prices.

30 ก.ค.

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🔻US Consumer Confidence Index Positive and Better Than Expectations Again!

Data released by the Conference Board a short while ago showed that the US Consumer Confidence Index data for the current month of July was positive, as the index reading was better than market expectations for the third consecutive month.

31 ก.ค.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

XAUUSD decreased slightly after a significant recovery period, at the Asian trading session on July 31, gold decreased slightly from the Fibonacci level of 0.382% to 2,405USD/oz, equivalent to a decrease of about 0.25% on the day.

31 ก.ค.

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For the Forex market, the July meeting coincided with the period when the market was pricing in a very sharp reduction in interest rates in the absence of a clear hawkish result to support the USD's increase. Therefore, this could be a rather bland event. This is especially true if the meeting follows JPMorgan's baseline scenario, with slight adjustments to the guidance in the statement, and will not elaborate on the prospect of lowering interest rates in the future other than September.

31 ก.ค.

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Pending home sales in the US rose 4.8% to 74.3 in June, reflecting increases in all four major regions. The increase far exceeded estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The gauge is pulling away from record lows in data dating back to 2001 as the housing market tries to escape a prolonged downturn. Mortgage interest rates have dropped somewhat recently, encouraging more homeowners to list their properties.

1 ส.ค.

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🔴Final US Manufacturing PMI Data Released

According to the data, the final reading of the Manufacturing PMI was 49.6 points in July, slightly higher than market expectations of around 49.5 points, and the previous reading of the index was around 49.5 points in June.

2 ส.ค.

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Gold price today reached 2,435 USD/ounce. Before that, there was a time when the precious metal reached 2,446 USD. In the previous July, world gold also increased by more than 4%.

The gold market recently went up after US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled that he could discuss reducing interest rates at the September meeting. Powell affirmed that the Fed is "increasingly confident". believes action is possible in the upcoming session", as long as inflation figures continue to cool.

2 ส.ค.

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The market is expecting the Fed to lower interest rates very sharply in the upcoming meeting

Nonfarm payrolls report shows unemployment rate skyrocketing from 4.1% to 4.3%

3 ส.ค.

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XAUUSD decreased during the trading session on Friday (August 2), because investors took profits after this precious metal had a sharp increase in price during the trading session. Analysts believe that gold prices may soon exceed 2,500 USD/oz because the risk of a US economic recession may cause the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates more strongly than expected.

4 ส.ค.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

From a technical perspective, gold prices still show an upward trend on long-term time frames, although there are corrections in the short-term frame. Gold prices may continue to maintain wave 5 corresponding to the Weekly chart, increasing above the 2500 round resistance level next week if it breaks through the old peak at 2483. If it fails to break through this resistance level, gold prices will move sideways within the range of 2385-2485.