Gold at Critical 50% Levels – Key Breakout or Breakdown Ahead

XAUUSD – Gold Technical Analysis

Gold is currently trading inside the zones we highlighted last week.
The 50% level of the black ascending channel acted as strong support and triggered the recent bullish bounce.

Regarding the blue channel, after price broke below it, gold retraced back to retest the 50% midpoint, which is a normal corrective behavior following a breakout.

📉 Bearish Scenario:

If gold breaks below the 50% level of the black channel,
and confirms the move with a break below the white channel,
the trend is expected to turn clearly bearish,
targeting the lower boundary of the blue channel at 3830 – 3790.

📈 Bullish Scenario:

If gold holds above the 50% level of the black channel,
and then breaks back above the 50% level of the blue channel,
the bullish trend could resume,
targeting 4190 – 4209.
A confirmed close above these levels is needed for price to break the upper boundary of the black channel and continue higher.

Fundamental Note – Post Government Shutdown:

With the U.S. government shutdown now over,
the market may return to higher liquidity and clearer price action.
This could accelerate gold’s next move:

Holding above breakout levels → potential strong bullish continuation

Failure to stabilize → renewed correction and activation of the bearish scenario