Good Morning folks - we have NFP in just under an hour or so
Gold is still range bound having (as I would have mentioned days prior) not doing anything significant
However the purpose of keeping gold within the range is to continue inducing traders to both buy and sell within the range
The dealer cannot take your money if it never leaves your broker
See Next below
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/c/cynzkMjc.png
That being said we have an instance of the dealer driving price bearish which may have taken out a big chunk of the buyers that were interested on that bull trend (within the range)
What I find to be very interesting is this move happened before todays news event which leads me to believe that the spike to the downside should be minimal OR EXTREME
Let me explain
I believe traders would have also caught buys at that last "liquidity grab" (green circle) which means the dealer either needs to ignore that area if it doesn't have a big chunk of buyers there OR he needs to completely decimate that area and go to the low of the range
The ONLY reason I believe the dealer drives price in the opposing direction of the momentum is to capture liquidity that he can use to then go in his intended direction
So I am looking at 2 possible moves
See next image(s)
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/c/cykscXRL.png
Move #1 - Stop short of the last "liquidity grab" but still take out that last set of buyers AND then proceed to buy for NFP
The reason for this one would be to catch traders off guard, I've seen this before where we expecting this big extravagant move from the market. We hope for chaos to ensue so that maybe justtttt maybe we can take advantage of that chaos.
The dealer may think we are expecting that and move the market away from this area silently but still take out the last bit of liquidity
Interestingly enough you'd be surprised also to know that the dealer doesn't have to drive price that low to still take out buyers interested at the absolute low of the consolidation range
He can use the spread.
Nothing says that the dealer cannot manipulate the spread in these instances - you may be in a buy at the low of the range then all of a sudden you aren't in a buy anymore - you got spread hunted
All in all - This is the sneaky approach on behalf of the dealer
See next image
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/z/z95WgGz4.png
Move #2 - this is the chaotic move everyone most likely would be expecting
Drive price really low - to the low of the range, break out below the range, take out buyers stops, induce traders to sell at the breakout and then at the last minute begin rejecting the downside to drive price back upward
By now I'd hope that most traders know that trading the news events are extremely dangerous and trying to catch this move can result in loss extremely quickly
Doesn't mean people won't take me seriously and not trade however, rest assured the dealer will still get some of you if this move is to play out
That being said you can still only consider buys safe if price can clear the green zone that we discussed yesterday and day before which would represent the previous ATH (all time high)
I know it would be very far from price at this point and you'd want to make money NOW but if you read my bio on tradingview here you'd realize
"now money doesn't last forever and forever money won't come now" - @Brandon_evo4 \ Brandon Abass.
Also you may be surprised as to how quickly gold can achieve that move (blue line). At the end of the day this is still GOLD
With that being said - what do you rather, unsure risk? or considerably safer risk?
Risk is risk but in the words of my father - "it is never what you do but how you do it"
And how you do anything is how you do everything
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/8/8dkyGwiX.png
That being said however I do feel move #1 (pink line) is more possible and likely as - we all know that we expect craziness for NFP
If I were the dealer I'd do the opposite of the expectation
"expectation is the route cause of all disappointment"
Make the move in silence and catch everyone with their pants arounds their ankles.
The dealer get's away with murder one more month
Downvote \Don't boost if you didn't read and didn't try to understand my perspective - if you did read and still disagree then absolutely downvote
OR
Upvote \Boost if you did read and do understand
Follow for more analysis like this - it's free :)
Godspeed to all trading today
Gold is still range bound having (as I would have mentioned days prior) not doing anything significant
However the purpose of keeping gold within the range is to continue inducing traders to both buy and sell within the range
The dealer cannot take your money if it never leaves your broker
See Next below
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/c/cynzkMjc.png
That being said we have an instance of the dealer driving price bearish which may have taken out a big chunk of the buyers that were interested on that bull trend (within the range)
What I find to be very interesting is this move happened before todays news event which leads me to believe that the spike to the downside should be minimal OR EXTREME
Let me explain
I believe traders would have also caught buys at that last "liquidity grab" (green circle) which means the dealer either needs to ignore that area if it doesn't have a big chunk of buyers there OR he needs to completely decimate that area and go to the low of the range
The ONLY reason I believe the dealer drives price in the opposing direction of the momentum is to capture liquidity that he can use to then go in his intended direction
So I am looking at 2 possible moves
See next image(s)
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/c/cykscXRL.png
Move #1 - Stop short of the last "liquidity grab" but still take out that last set of buyers AND then proceed to buy for NFP
The reason for this one would be to catch traders off guard, I've seen this before where we expecting this big extravagant move from the market. We hope for chaos to ensue so that maybe justtttt maybe we can take advantage of that chaos.
The dealer may think we are expecting that and move the market away from this area silently but still take out the last bit of liquidity
Interestingly enough you'd be surprised also to know that the dealer doesn't have to drive price that low to still take out buyers interested at the absolute low of the consolidation range
He can use the spread.
Nothing says that the dealer cannot manipulate the spread in these instances - you may be in a buy at the low of the range then all of a sudden you aren't in a buy anymore - you got spread hunted
All in all - This is the sneaky approach on behalf of the dealer
See next image
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/z/z95WgGz4.png
Move #2 - this is the chaotic move everyone most likely would be expecting
Drive price really low - to the low of the range, break out below the range, take out buyers stops, induce traders to sell at the breakout and then at the last minute begin rejecting the downside to drive price back upward
By now I'd hope that most traders know that trading the news events are extremely dangerous and trying to catch this move can result in loss extremely quickly
Doesn't mean people won't take me seriously and not trade however, rest assured the dealer will still get some of you if this move is to play out
That being said you can still only consider buys safe if price can clear the green zone that we discussed yesterday and day before which would represent the previous ATH (all time high)
I know it would be very far from price at this point and you'd want to make money NOW but if you read my bio on tradingview here you'd realize
"now money doesn't last forever and forever money won't come now" - @Brandon_evo4 \ Brandon Abass.
Also you may be surprised as to how quickly gold can achieve that move (blue line). At the end of the day this is still GOLD
With that being said - what do you rather, unsure risk? or considerably safer risk?
Risk is risk but in the words of my father - "it is never what you do but how you do it"
And how you do anything is how you do everything
https://s3.tradingview.com/snapshots/8/8dkyGwiX.png
That being said however I do feel move #1 (pink line) is more possible and likely as - we all know that we expect craziness for NFP
If I were the dealer I'd do the opposite of the expectation
"expectation is the route cause of all disappointment"
Make the move in silence and catch everyone with their pants arounds their ankles.
The dealer get's away with murder one more month
Downvote \Don't boost if you didn't read and didn't try to understand my perspective - if you did read and still disagree then absolutely downvote
OR
Upvote \Boost if you did read and do understand
Follow for more analysis like this - it's free :)
Godspeed to all trading today
