GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Sep 09 - Sep 13]

8 ก.ย.

This week, international gold prices fell from 2,507 USD/oz to 2,471 USD/oz in the first sessions of the week. After that, gold price recovered to 2,529 USD/oz, then dropped to 2,485 USD/oz and closed this week at 2,497 USD/oz.

Recent US economic data has played an important role in shaping developments in the gold market.

The US August jobs report fell short of expectations. While economists predicted 160,000 new jobs would be created in August, the actual number was only 142,000 jobs. However, the published data was lower than forecast but still higher than the previous period.
The US unemployment rate in August decreased slightly from 4.3% to 4.2%. But this is still high compared to the 3.8% rate recorded a year ago.

These labor market figures, along with recent US inflation reports, have reinforced expectations that the Fed is about to cut interest rates. This prediction is further fueled by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's statement at the Jackson Hole Conference on August 24, in which he noted that it is time for monetary policy to adjust.

In the medium and long term, many economic experts believe that gold prices will increase sharply because the more the FED cuts interest rates, the more the USD and US Treasury bond yields will weaken, increasing the appeal of gold. . Furthermore, central banks have been and are continuing to buy gold reserves.

Technically, there is no debate about the uptrend of gold as the Weekly time frame technical chart clearly shows this. However, this rising wave is reaching the resistance level around the fibo expansion mark at fibo 161.8. In theory, it is possible that the price reaching this mark will have reversal phases, which are corrective declines to consolidate the uptrends. next bullish period. The next fibo milestone will be around 2,590-3,000 usd/oz.

Next week, the market will pay attention to US August CPI data, and the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy meeting.

📌Currently, considering the H4 technical chart, the gold price is still moving sideways in a wide range, specifically fluctuating from 2,470 - 2,530 usd/oz. If the resistance level of 2530 is broken, in the immediate future the gold price will rise around the round resistance level of 2600. In case the support level of 2470 is broken, the gold price will fall back to around the threshold of 2,430 USD/oz.

Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2.500 – 2.503 – 2.530USD
Resistance: 2.484 – 2.470USD

SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2591 - 2589⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2595

BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2429 - 2431⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2425

8 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Data recently released by the China Foreign Exchange Administration shows that the country's gold reserves as of the end of August 2024 were 72.8 million ounces, remaining the same as at the end of July and unchanged for the 4th consecutive month. next. Previously, the People's Bank of China (PBoc, the central bank) increased its gold holdings for 18 consecutive months.

9 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

After a week dominated by employment data, the gold market will continue to wait for the inflation report with the most important data being the US August CPI published this Wednesday morning (September 11). .

9 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

9 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Gold prices saw an intraday reversal from near historic highs and fell below the psychological mark of $2,500 following the release of US jobs data on Friday. A mixed US jobs report reduced the likelihood of a 50 basis point Fed rate cut, which in turn prompted some short-term USD buying and put pressure on precious metals.

10 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Gold prices struggled to extend the previous session's gain from the $2,485 area and fell slightly during the Asian session on Tuesday, as the USD continued to strengthen. Investors have tempered expectations that the Fed will lower interest rates more sharply in September after the US monthly jobs report released on Friday had mixed results. This pushed the DXY index back close to the monthly peak reached last week and put pressure on the precious metal.

10 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

The famous investment bank Goldman Sachs issued a research note yesterday, Monday, in which it discussed its positive expectations for the Chinese economy, as the American bank sees that there are three factors that call for optimism about economic activity in China.

11 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

World gold prices increased in the trading session on Tuesday (September 10), as investors waited for the US to release the consumer price index (CPI) report on Wednesday. Although the key milestone of 2,500 USD/oz is maintained, analysts believe that gold prices are in need of a new catalyst to truly break out.

11 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Gold prices steadied on Wednesday, as investors keenly awaited the U.S. inflation data for hints on the size of the Federal Reserve’s potential interest rate cut next week.

11 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US core CPI increased 0.3% m/m, the highest level in three months and increased 3.2% over the same period. Economists argue that the core CPI is a better indicator of the underlying detectability of headline CPI. The index increased 0.2% m/m and 2.5% year-on-year in August, marking the fifth straight month the index cooled, making fuel prices cheaper. BLS said housing was the "key factor" in the acceleration in the CPI core.

12 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Gold prices are leveling off, accumulating in the range of 2,500 USD to 2,531 USD. Momentum remains positive though, as shown by the RSI moving sideways above the neutral line, suggesting both buyers and sellers are cautious.