Inflation data is the focus next week, GOLD closes above support

9 ก.ย.

XAUUSD fell on Friday (September 6), after closing in on a record hit earlier in the session after mixed US jobs data raised concerns about the scale of interest rate cuts in the decision. Federal Reserve decision later this month.

The U.S. Department of Labor reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 142,000 in August, compared with estimates of 160,000. The July figure was also adjusted down to 89,000.
However, the unemployment rate was 4.2%, in line with expectations but down from 4.3% the previous month.
The gold market's central question is whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points or 25 basis points on September 18. Interest rate reduction is almost certain.
According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders now see a 70% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut this month and a 30% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut.

Some notable comments from influential officials in the US Federal Reserve
• New York Fed President John Williams said lowering interest rates as quickly as possible will help keep the job market in balance.
• Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also said “the time is right” for the US central bank to begin a series of interest rate cuts, adding that he is willing to accept the scale and pace of cuts reduce.

The upcoming US CPI report next week will provide a trend impact on gold prices. This is the final inflation report before the Fed's September 17-18 policy meeting and it will impact the size and pace of the Fed's interest rate cuts.

The Fed's path to cutting interest rates is a very important factor. Once the market prices in a path of rate cuts at a faster pace over a longer period of time, gold will continue to rebound over the longer term.

Economic data to watch next week
Wednesday: US consumer price index (CPI).
Thursday: ECB monetary policy decision, US PPI, US weekly unemployment claims
Friday: University of Michigan preliminary consumer confidence index

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
On the daily chart, although gold fell in the last trading session last week, in general the short, medium and long-term uptrend is still not much affected.

Gold remains bullish in the short term with previous targets at $2,531 – $2,544 as long as it remains above EMA21 and within the trend price channel.
Once gold rises back above the 0.786% fibonacci extension it will be eligible to continue rising and the weekly close above the $2,484 technical level is also a positive technical signal.

The downward relative strength index is close to reaching the 50 level. The 50 level is considered a support if the RSI is above this level and this is also a signal that the downside space is no longer wide ahead.

In the immediate future, the technical trend of gold prices is still leaning towards the possibility of an increase with notable levels being listed as follows.
Support: 2,484 – 2,471USD
Resistance: 2,500 – 2,503 – 2,531USD

SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2509 - 2507⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2513

→Take Profit 1 2502
↨
→Take Profit 2 2497

BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2481 - 2483⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2477

→Take Profit 1 2488
↨
→Take Profit 2 2493

9 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Gold prices saw an intraday reversal from near historic highs and fell below the psychological mark of $2,500 following the release of US jobs data on Friday. A mixed US jobs report reduced the likelihood of a 50 basis point Fed rate cut, which in turn prompted some short-term USD buying and put pressure on precious metals.

10 ก.ย.

การซื้อขายยังคงดำเนินอยู่

Plan SELL Close 1/2 + 50pips. Move SL to Entry🔥

10 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

10 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

The famous investment bank Goldman Sachs issued a research note yesterday, Monday, in which it discussed its positive expectations for the Chinese economy, as the American bank sees that there are three factors that call for optimism about economic activity in China.

11 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

World gold prices increased in the trading session on Tuesday (September 10), as investors waited for the US to release the consumer price index (CPI) report on Wednesday. Although the key milestone of 2,500 USD/oz is maintained, analysts believe that gold prices are in need of a new catalyst to truly break out.

11 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Gold prices steadied on Wednesday, as investors keenly awaited the U.S. inflation data for hints on the size of the Federal Reserve’s potential interest rate cut next week.

11 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US core CPI increased 0.3% m/m, the highest level in three months and increased 3.2% over the same period. Economists argue that the core CPI is a better indicator of the underlying detectability of headline CPI. The index increased 0.2% m/m and 2.5% year-on-year in August, marking the fifth straight month the index cooled, making fuel prices cheaper. BLS said housing was the "key factor" in the acceleration in the CPI core.

12 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

Gold prices are leveling off, accumulating in the range of 2,500 USD to 2,531 USD. Momentum remains positive though, as shown by the RSI moving sideways above the neutral line, suggesting both buyers and sellers are cautious.

12 ก.ย.

บันทึกช่วยจำ

The PPI index increased by 0.2% m/m, 0.1% m/m higher than the previous month, according to a report by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey showed economists predicting a 0.1% m/m increase. The PPI index also increased by 1.7% y/y, the lowest level since the beginning of 2024.