GOLD - Houston we're going down

There was many possible trigger event for gold to break down from the flag this week :
Powel's speech, FED minutes, Trump's tweet

In the previous daily idea I posted what my expectation was in gold.

Price bounced from the 100 SMA on the daily chart .
The length of the flag was important. I said if we spend days (1-2 weeks ) of back testing the breakdown then the final ICL will be at around 1750 the top of the multi week consolidation box.

If the flag breaks down in 2-3 days then the final low will be at around 1700 as we have many many days to break the 1800-1820 level.

Today the flag finally broke down after 2 weeks of flagging. So now my expectation is a backtest of 1740-1750 . First step is a break of the previous DCL at 1862 and a close below the 100 SMA.
As we spent too long time in the flag I think the chance of the test of 1650 is low.
Sometimes early next week we are breaking 1850 and that will activate the panic selling.

1800 $ will not hold for too long : in 2 -2,5 weeks price will be testing 1750 at the 200 SMA. If we get to 1740 very fast , like early or middle of next week then the tag of 1650 is still possible.
Notice that the daily candle is a key reversal candlestick. It's turning down from an important resistance.

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I will use the close above the 50 SMA to close this idea.

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I have to tell you that they have built a fantastic bull trap.
I hope nobody bought on Friday’s fake marubozu.

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I will post an update today.
If you are short stay short. If you are long well then pray because I think a panic selling is coming next week.

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I will update gold in a private idea on twitter today. The private idea will be public tomorrow when everything completed.

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Moment of truth.

I think this time we will break through to the downside.

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Houston we’re going down
100 SMA is lost.

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Bulls should be busy to build a double bottom here. Otherwise we are going to drop to 1850 in a day or two:

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I dont think it will stop before we break 1850.

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Failed.
1849 is coming.

ปิดการเทรด ด้วยตนเอง:

We’ve run out of time. It might drop but holding shorts is too risky.

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We have just entered the final washout stage in the metals.
A few years ago this kind of support breaks initiated the panic selling stage this time we might get or do not get the panic selling. I think 40$ To 80$ left in this drop.

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1750-60 is still possible in the next 10 days. Hopefully we get some panic and we can get some discounted gold from the margin called bulls below 1800.

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Panic selling day 2.
Usually lasts for two weeks Maximum.

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Price is bouncing from the the 200 SMA.
I am still expecting A red daily candle by the close

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Most probably gold bottomed at my original target at the 200 SMA - actually it broke below it for 2 days.

I’ve started to buy both silver and gold.