Technical Analysis for Gold Spot/USD (1-Hour Chart)

16 ธ.ค. 2024

Current Market Overview
Current Price: $2,659.07
Market Trend: Mixed with a recent bearish move, but a recovery seems to be emerging.
Key Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: $2,624.09 and $2,613.26
Resistance: $2,686.70 and $2,725.84
Bullish Scenario
Technical Factors
Price Action:

Price shows a rebound after testing the NY Midnight Open near $2,653.70.
Bullish candles are starting to form on the right side of the chart, suggesting a potential reversal.
Volume Profile:

Delta volume is indicating positive activity at lower price levels, hinting that buyers are stepping in near $2,653 and below.
Indicators:

The pink shaded bearish momentum (likely a short-term EMA cloud) appears to be weakening.
Price is attempting to push above this bearish cloud, which could act as a trigger for further bullish momentum.
Support Zone:

Strong support exists near $2,624 to $2,613, where price previously reversed on Dec 6th and 10th, as seen by the green demand zone.
Probable Entry Points
Entry: Around $2,655 - $2,660 once price consolidates above the NY Midnight Open ($2,653.70).
Confirmation: Look for price closing above $2,666 (the nearest mini-resistance).
Take-Profit Targets
Short-term TP1: $2,686.70 (key resistance zone marked by 16% delta volume).
TP2: $2,710 - This is a zone where previous bearish pressure emerged.
Extended Target: $2,725.84 (higher timeframe resistance).
Stop-Loss
SL: Below $2,650 or $2,645 to minimize risk.
Bearish Scenario
Technical Factors
Price Action:

Despite the current bounce, the overall structure remains bearish, with lower highs forming after the drop from $2,725.84.
Bearish momentum (pink shaded region) remains active on the larger downtrend.
Volume Analysis:

Negative delta volume around $2,686.70 suggests sellers are still defending that level.
Resistance Zone:

$2,666 to $2,686 is a key supply zone; a rejection here would confirm bearish continuation.
Moving Averages/EMA Cloud:

Price has yet to break convincingly above the pink bearish cloud, meaning the trend still favors sellers.
Probable Entry Points
Entry: Near $2,666 to $2,670 if the price fails to break above resistance. Look for rejection candles.
Confirmation: Bearish engulfing or a sharp pullback below the NY Midnight Open ($2,653).
Take-Profit Targets
Short-term TP1: $2,640 (previous swing low).
TP2: $2,624 - This level is the lower support zone with previous demand.
Extended Target: $2,613 - A breakdown of this level could lead to further bearish momentum.
Stop-Loss
SL: Above $2,675 or $2,680 to protect against a bullish breakout.
Summary: Trading Plan
Scenario Entry Zone Stop-Loss Take-Profit Targets
Bullish $2,655 - $2,660 Below $2,645 TP1: $2,686.70, TP2: $2,710, TP3: $2,725
Bearish $2,666 - $2,670 Above $2,675 TP1: $2,640, TP2: $2,624, TP3: $2,613
Conclusion
Bullish Bias: If price sustains above $2,666 and breaks resistance near $2,686, a bullish move to $2,710 - $2,725 could unfold.
Bearish Bias: Rejection at $2,666 - $2,686 would likely lead to a pullback targeting $2,640, $2,624, and potentially $2,613.
Recommendation: Wait for confirmation around key levels ($2,653.70 and $2,666) before entering a trade. Use proper stop-losses to manage risk.