Key Gold Positioning Strategies Before the Fed Decision:

Core Logic Triple Verified
Federal Divergence
Dovish Camp Expands: Bowman and Waller Clearly Support Rate Cuts; New Board Members Strengthen Expectations of a September Rate Cut
Powell Walks a Tightrope: Balancing "Stabilizing Employment" and "Inflation Risks"; Be Wary of His Use of "Learning Periods" Vague terms such as "Period" are used.

Key USD threshold: 104.5 is the dividing line between strength and weakness. A break above 105.2 or below 103.8 after the decision will determine gold's direction.

Technical bull/bear critical points.

Descending wedge breakout: 4-hour chart breaks through the 3325 resistance level, with moderate volume growth but no significant increase (validity needs to be confirmed).

Golden Ratio: 3301-3345 range, with 3338 (61.8%) as the bullish watershed.

CME open interest fluctuations: Open interest below 3300 surges by 20%, indicating strong institutional interest in bottoming out.

Market Sentiment Pendulum.

VIX-gold correlation: Recent divergence is significant, suggesting that safe-haven demand is not fully priced in.

Retail long-short ratio: 1:1.7 indicates excessive pessimism, while contrarian indicators suggest rebound potential.

▶ Pre-Federal Reserve Strategy

Bull Assault Route
Go long with a light position on a pullback to 3318-3315, stop loss at 3308, target 3338-3345
Buy on a breakout above 3345, add to your position on a pullback to 3338, stop loss at 3325, target 3370

Bear Defensive Position
Place short orders at 3338-3340, stop loss at 3347, target 3320 (quick in and out)
Unexpected break below 3308: Go short on a pullback to 3312, stop loss at 3320, target 3285

Nuclear Button Response
Dovish Surprise (direct hint of a September rate cut): Buy on a pullback to 3335 after a break below 3350, stop loss at 3320
Hawkish Impact (negating a rate cut this year): Go short on a pullback to 3310 after a break below 3300, stop loss at 3325

Key Technical Level Update
15-Minute Support Level: 3315 Resistance Level: 3330 Key Features: Lower Rising Channel
Hourly Chart Support level: 3300; Resistance level: 3345. Key characteristic: Head-and-shoulders bottom neckline.
Daily chart: Support level: 3285; Resistance level: 3370. Key characteristic: 200-day moving average pressure.

Professional Advice:
Conservatives: Close all long positions at 3315 at 3330, and follow up if the price breaks through 3345.
Algorithmic Trading: Set up grid trading between 3315 and 3345, with a 0.5% risk per trade.
Institutional Thinking: Strategize medium-term long positions between 3300 and 3285, with a stop loss at 3250 and a target at 3420.