Short-term bullish on UWMC, but expecting new All time Lows afterwards.
Seems like a Wyckoff accumulation phase is currently evolving - expecting the following to happen:
1. Hype before Q1 statement, driving prices up - supported by other relief rallies in other SPACS
2. Q1 Statement released, fomo buys made by people expecting 10$ to break
3. Short term rally in 10Y-Yields, leading to fear towards investing in mortgage companies
4. New all time lows, Fomo buyers from step 2 capitulates and sells
5. All time low acting as "spring", thus marking the final stage of the accumulation phase. Just when capitulation happens, Russell Inclusion news acts as "reason" for spring to evolve to a jump up in price
6. Sign of strength appears, reaccumulation follows, and markup phase begins.
This is of course just my view, and I expect about a 5-10% chance of the scenario playing out just like mentioned above.
Seems like a Wyckoff accumulation phase is currently evolving - expecting the following to happen:
1. Hype before Q1 statement, driving prices up - supported by other relief rallies in other SPACS
2. Q1 Statement released, fomo buys made by people expecting 10$ to break
3. Short term rally in 10Y-Yields, leading to fear towards investing in mortgage companies
4. New all time lows, Fomo buyers from step 2 capitulates and sells
5. All time low acting as "spring", thus marking the final stage of the accumulation phase. Just when capitulation happens, Russell Inclusion news acts as "reason" for spring to evolve to a jump up in price
6. Sign of strength appears, reaccumulation follows, and markup phase begins.
This is of course just my view, and I expect about a 5-10% chance of the scenario playing out just like mentioned above.
