Oil Under Pressure Amid Tariff Tensions and OPEC+ Uncertainty

Macro:
- Oil prices stabilised after hitting multi-month lows as the market weighed potential output increases in Apr and escalating tariff tensions among Canada, Mexico, China, and the EU.
- Meanwhile, the halted US military aid to the Eastern Europe conflict, and OPEC+ production decisions continue to pressure oil.

Technical:
- USOIL remains in a downtrend, consistently making lower lows while trading below both EMAs, signalling persistent bearish momentum. However, the price is nearing the oversold zone, supported by multiple key levels.
- If USOIL continues declining, it may retest 66.90 and 65.80, aligning with the 78.6% Fibonacci Extension.
- Conversely, holding above 66.90 could lead to a short-term sideways movement, with a potential retest at 70.20, confluence with EMA21, and the descending channel’s upper bound.



Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness