สัญญาการซื้อขายส่วนต่างน้ำมันดิบ WTIเพิ่มขึ้น
The Path to $200 Oil: A Storm and the T Pattern of the Decade
In anticipation of the potential meeting between Trump and Putin, many are expecting de-escalation. My primary scenario, however, is that the initial talks will most likely fail. This event will not bring relief but will instead trigger a new round of escalation: intensified sanctions and, consequently, a potential reduction of oil supply on the global market.
It is precisely this impending geopolitical storm that will become the fuel that perfectly aligns with a powerful technical picture that has been forming for years.
It is precisely this impending geopolitical storm that will become the fuel that perfectly aligns with a powerful technical picture that has been forming for years.
Anatomy of the Bull Case – Why the Breakout Will Be Upwards
On the monthly chart, we are not just seeing a consolidation, but one of the strongest bullish setups one can find:
The Giant Bull Flag: We entered this multi-year channel from the bottom. According to all canons of technical analysis, this means the most probable exit will be directed upwards, continuing the prior trend.
The Liquidity Grab (The "Bitcoin 2018" Pattern): The most crucial part happened very recently. We witnessed the formation of a descending triangle that broke to the downside, as expected. But this was not a true bear trend. It was a textbook "liquidity grab"—the market took out the stops of all the buyers, collected their liquidity, and is now ready for the true move up. Bitcoin painted the exact same formation in 2018 before beginning its journey to new highs.
tradingview.com/chart/UKOIL/EgGcIjad-Crude-OIL-UKOIL-Classic-pattern/.
The Psychological Fuel – What Will Power the Rally to $200
A rocket needs fuel. In our case, the fuel will be the short-sellers. At every new level—$100, $120, $150—a huge mass of traders will try to "catch the top" by opening short positions. Their predictable liquidations will be what propels the price ever higher, creating a brutal, months-long short squeeze.
This is precisely why I argue that most will not be able to ride this move. The biggest mistake the average trader will make is either closing their long position too early, taking a pathetic fraction of the profit, or worse, starting to short, fighting against a trend that is stronger than them.
Why a Bear Case is Now a Bet Against Logic
You might ask, "What if it all goes wrong? What is the bear case?"
In the current configuration, I am not considering one. When you have a powerful geopolitical catalyst leading to a supply shock on one side of the scale, and one of the strongest bullish technical patterns after a perfect liquidity grab on the other, the probability shifts so dramatically to one side that betting on a decline becomes a game with a negative expected value. My job is not to guess all outcomes but to bet on the scenario with the highest probability. And right now, it is clearly bullish.
Conclusion
I am leaving this long-term forecast here. This is my view of the market, based on a combination of geopolitics, technicals, and crowd psychology. The direction of the move, in my opinion, has been set. Time will tell who is right. This is not a trading recommendation
Wishing everyone success.
Best regards, EXCAVO.
It is precisely this impending geopolitical storm that will become the fuel that perfectly aligns with a powerful technical picture that has been forming for years.
It is precisely this impending geopolitical storm that will become the fuel that perfectly aligns with a powerful technical picture that has been forming for years.
Anatomy of the Bull Case – Why the Breakout Will Be Upwards
On the monthly chart, we are not just seeing a consolidation, but one of the strongest bullish setups one can find:
The Giant Bull Flag: We entered this multi-year channel from the bottom. According to all canons of technical analysis, this means the most probable exit will be directed upwards, continuing the prior trend.
The Liquidity Grab (The "Bitcoin 2018" Pattern): The most crucial part happened very recently. We witnessed the formation of a descending triangle that broke to the downside, as expected. But this was not a true bear trend. It was a textbook "liquidity grab"—the market took out the stops of all the buyers, collected their liquidity, and is now ready for the true move up. Bitcoin painted the exact same formation in 2018 before beginning its journey to new highs.
tradingview.com/chart/UKOIL/EgGcIjad-Crude-OIL-UKOIL-Classic-pattern/.
The Psychological Fuel – What Will Power the Rally to $200
A rocket needs fuel. In our case, the fuel will be the short-sellers. At every new level—$100, $120, $150—a huge mass of traders will try to "catch the top" by opening short positions. Their predictable liquidations will be what propels the price ever higher, creating a brutal, months-long short squeeze.
This is precisely why I argue that most will not be able to ride this move. The biggest mistake the average trader will make is either closing their long position too early, taking a pathetic fraction of the profit, or worse, starting to short, fighting against a trend that is stronger than them.
Why a Bear Case is Now a Bet Against Logic
You might ask, "What if it all goes wrong? What is the bear case?"
In the current configuration, I am not considering one. When you have a powerful geopolitical catalyst leading to a supply shock on one side of the scale, and one of the strongest bullish technical patterns after a perfect liquidity grab on the other, the probability shifts so dramatically to one side that betting on a decline becomes a game with a negative expected value. My job is not to guess all outcomes but to bet on the scenario with the highest probability. And right now, it is clearly bullish.
Conclusion
I am leaving this long-term forecast here. This is my view of the market, based on a combination of geopolitics, technicals, and crowd psychology. The direction of the move, in my opinion, has been set. Time will tell who is right. This is not a trading recommendation
Wishing everyone success.
Best regards, EXCAVO.
บันทึก
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมที่ ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน
คำจำกัดสิทธิ์ความรับผิดชอบ
ข้อมูลและบทความไม่ได้มีวัตถุประสงค์เพื่อก่อให้เกิดกิจกรรมทางการเงิน, การลงทุน, การซื้อขาย, ข้อเสนอแนะ หรือคำแนะนำประเภทอื่น ๆ ที่ให้หรือรับรองโดย TradingView อ่านเพิ่มเติมที่ ข้อกำหนดการใช้งาน