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Breakout strategies favoured north of 109
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62. The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation. April was pretty uneventful, ranging between 109.38/106.35. May also remained subdued, ranging between 108.08/105.98.
Areas outside of the noted pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Since registering a top from 109.38 at the beginning of April, USD/JPY moulded a falling wedge pattern, which had its upper limit breached on May 11 in strong fashion, boosted by demand at 105.70/106.66. The take-profit target out of the pattern, traditionally measured by taking the value of the base and adding this to the breakout point (purple), sets an upside objective of around 109.30.
As you can see, after dethroning the 200-day simple moving average at 108.35 on Tuesday and extending gains Wednesday, we are within touching distance of completing the falling wedge pattern.
Indicator-based technicians will also note the RSI indicator nears overbought waters.
H4 timeframe:
Risk-on flows rejuvenated USD strength against the safe-haven Japanese yen in recent movement, placing a question mark on supply at 108.87/108.48. The upper edge, as you can see, has been tested, potentially charting the way towards another layer of supply at 109.65/109.24.
H1 timeframe:
Upside refreshed weekly highs at 108.98 on Wednesday, pulling the H1 candles out of a bullish pennant configuration, established from a high of 108.84 and a low coming in from 108.42. Assuming we dethrone 109, the pennant’s take-profit target, measured by taking the preceding move and adding this value to the breakout point, will be in sight at 1.10 (blue arrows).
Structures of Interest:
A break of 109 is likely on the cards, albeit resistance may enter play around the 109.30 region off the daily falling wedge take-profit target, held within the lower range of H4 supply at 109.65/109.24.
As a result of the above analysis, breakout buyers may find use in the space above 109, though most will contemplate reducing risk to breakeven at around 109.30.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62. The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation. April was pretty uneventful, ranging between 109.38/106.35. May also remained subdued, ranging between 108.08/105.98.
Areas outside of the noted pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Since registering a top from 109.38 at the beginning of April, USD/JPY moulded a falling wedge pattern, which had its upper limit breached on May 11 in strong fashion, boosted by demand at 105.70/106.66. The take-profit target out of the pattern, traditionally measured by taking the value of the base and adding this to the breakout point (purple), sets an upside objective of around 109.30.
As you can see, after dethroning the 200-day simple moving average at 108.35 on Tuesday and extending gains Wednesday, we are within touching distance of completing the falling wedge pattern.
Indicator-based technicians will also note the RSI indicator nears overbought waters.
H4 timeframe:
Risk-on flows rejuvenated USD strength against the safe-haven Japanese yen in recent movement, placing a question mark on supply at 108.87/108.48. The upper edge, as you can see, has been tested, potentially charting the way towards another layer of supply at 109.65/109.24.
H1 timeframe:
Upside refreshed weekly highs at 108.98 on Wednesday, pulling the H1 candles out of a bullish pennant configuration, established from a high of 108.84 and a low coming in from 108.42. Assuming we dethrone 109, the pennant’s take-profit target, measured by taking the preceding move and adding this value to the breakout point, will be in sight at 1.10 (blue arrows).
Structures of Interest:
A break of 109 is likely on the cards, albeit resistance may enter play around the 109.30 region off the daily falling wedge take-profit target, held within the lower range of H4 supply at 109.65/109.24.
As a result of the above analysis, breakout buyers may find use in the space above 109, though most will contemplate reducing risk to breakeven at around 109.30.
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