USDCAD | Break Below the Ascending Channel as Data Shifts

6 วันที่ผ่านมา

USDCAD extended its decline today after strong Canadian labour data surprised to the upside while the US dollar softened on growing expectations of a dovish Fed shift. The combination has pulled the pair to a two-month low and accelerated a technical break that had been building for weeks.

Technical Lens

Price has broken below the ascending channel that has contained USDCAD since June 2025, a structure that repeatedly acted as dynamic support for trend participants.
This breakdown follows the completion of a head-and-shoulders pattern near the upper channel boundary, with price now driving decisively toward the mid-range support.

The next meaningful zone sits near 1.3750, which aligns with:

• Prior demand from September
  
• A retest of the broader structural shelf
  
• The projected move from the neckline break
  

This level stands out as the next inflection point to watch.
Scenarios

• If momentum continues toward 1.3750

Price could be heading into a key decision area where CAD strength may stabilise, especially if macro conditions continue favouring it.

• If price reclaims the broken channel

Recovering back above the former lower boundary could signal a false break, reopening the path toward 1.40 and the mid-channel zone.
Catalysts

• Canadian jobs beat boosted CAD: +53.6k jobs, unemployment dipping — strengthening the currency backdrop.
  
• Fed expectations leaning dovish, weighing on USD as traders price in potential rate cuts.
  
• Oil sensitivity: Any extended strength in crude could add pressure on USDCAD.
  
• Upcoming U.S. PCE inflation remains the next major macro pivot; a hotter print could revive USD buying.
  

Takeaway
USDCAD’s clean break of a six-month rising channel shifts focus to 1.3750 as the next major area of interest — a zone that may decide whether this is a trend reversal or simply a deep correction within the broader structure.

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