BoC on Deck this month ... fading corrective rallies in USDCAD
=> We still maintain our USDCAD short position from earlier in the week and recommend selling all corrective rallies here ahead of the BoC rate hike widely expected this month.
=> Although the rate hike is expected this trade is far from crowded and we see incoming data to keep the BoC on track with tightening monetary policy.
=> Odds of any hikes are close to 90% probability (in other words it is a done deal) which makes complete sense considering that the decreased political uncertainty allows the BoC to completely focus on better fundamentals when setting policy (a rarity in this world...)
=> We are expecting payrolls to reach 195k and average hourly earnings expected to come in at 2.9% YoY.
=> Markets are expecting a better outcome, especially considering the price action we've seen in US yields and the USD via ADP and ISM employment components.
=> Good luck all trading this live
=> Although the rate hike is expected this trade is far from crowded and we see incoming data to keep the BoC on track with tightening monetary policy.
=> Odds of any hikes are close to 90% probability (in other words it is a done deal) which makes complete sense considering that the decreased political uncertainty allows the BoC to completely focus on better fundamentals when setting policy (a rarity in this world...)
=> We are expecting payrolls to reach 195k and average hourly earnings expected to come in at 2.9% YoY.
=> Markets are expecting a better outcome, especially considering the price action we've seen in US yields and the USD via ADP and ISM employment components.
=> Good luck all trading this live
