US30 Long

This analysis focuses on the interplay of weekly and intraday confluences, which collectively point towards a potential bullish scenario. A detailed breakdown of the price movements and key levels is provided to support the thesis.

1. Weekly Confluences

Unmet Target: The price has yet to reach its anticipated target of 45,300, indicating unfulfilled market objectives.
Order Collection Observation: A significant retracement suggests an attempt to collect orders within a specific price region.
The first notable level was 43,500, corresponding to a prior body closure. Price broke through this level and moved downward.
The second key region, 42,100, showed a rejection pattern characterized by a three-pin formation.
Pattern Analysis: An "M" pattern is apparent, signaling that the price may retest its neckline at 43,500.


2. Four-Hour Timeframe Insights

Rejection and Momentum: The price rejected the 42,100 weekly level with strong bullish momentum, forming a bullish setup with a target of 42,600.
Order Collection Confirmation: Despite the bullish target not being achieved, the retracement implies another round of order collection, this time within the 42,328 daily level.


Conclusion and Thesis:

The evidence points to a bullish outlook. While the price is gathering momentum and confirming its intentions, I will wait for clear intraday confirmations before entering the market. Patience at this stage will ensure alignment with the larger trend and reduce exposure to potential false moves.