US10Y yields

Yields are the factor that dictates what happens to the market next.
In case of a break above the white trend around 4.8% expect another push higher towards 5.2% which will mean the stock market might a final push higher, then a recession should hit at this rate.

in case of a break below the yellow channel around 4.35% expect further downside to 3.2% which should coincide with a healthy market correction and a run to safety with a rise in bonds, below this level should means recession is already in