NASDAQ (NEW UPDATES) Bonds DOWN RATE CUT PROBABILITY RISING
ที่อัปเดต:
US100 trend bullish
profit takingg
PMI below expectations
dollar up Warconflict tensions between US and IRAN8+houthiesrebels Red sea increasing):
MARKET WAITING FOR fomc MINUTES
5th Januayr most important day of this year!!!!!
November US Construction Spending Up 0.4%
Construction spending during November 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,050.1 billion, 0.4% above the revised October estimate of $2,042.5 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The November figure is 11.3% above the November 2022 estimate of $1,842.2 billion. During the first eleven months of this year, construction spending amounted to $1,817.1 billion, 6.2% above the $1,711.1 billion for the same period in 2022. Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,595.0 billion, 0.7% above the revised October estimate of $1,584.4 billion.
US manufacturing performance declines at sharper pace as demand conditions weaken
The US manufacturing sector slipped further into contraction during December, according to the latest PMI® survey data from S&P Global, as output returned to decline and the downturn in new orders gathered pace. Lower total new sales reflected weakness in both domestic and external demand conditions, with firms adjusting down their input buying and hiring activity accordingly. Signs of greater spare capacity were seen through a faster fall in backlogs and destocking, with firms also seeking to better manage cashflow.
The US dollar begins the new year on a firm note. It is recovering against nearly all the G10 and emerging market currencies today after depreciating in the holiday-thin markets over the past couple of weeks. Japanese markets are on holiday until Thursday. The yen and Swiss franc are the poorest performers among the G10 currencies. Among emerging market currencies, the Mexican peso, Hungarian forint, and South African rand are bucking the trend to post minor gains against the greenback. The Chinese yuan is off by about 0.5% for its biggest loss in at least six months.
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Trend BullishWe hedged yesterday ASIA session our positions at above 16850 short. at this moment we have longs and shorts positons in nasdaq an some ndices in profit,.Based on our trading strategy signals we will decie if we excecute the shorts, or take out our longs(If the trend becomes bearish).
Current sentient for the next days is bearish to unknown, as the market is very nervouse. But we tick to our long time proven strategy.
The US dollar, as measured by the DXY index, started the new year on the front foot, rising for the third consecutive session, supported by a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year note up 7 bp to 3.93%. In this context, the DXY index climbed 0.7% to 102.10 in early afternoon trading in New York, posting its biggest daily advance since October, ahead of high-impact events later in the week.
Key releases, including the ISM manufacturing survey and the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report (NFP), will give an opportunity to assess the economic outlook and ascertain if projections of aggressive interest rate cuts for 2024 hold merit.
If manufacturing activity accelerates in a meaningful way and employment growth surprises to the upside, investors are likely to pare bets on deep interest-rate cuts, foreseeing that the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to slash borrowing costs substantially in a stable economy for fear of reigniting inflation. This scenario would be bullish for the U.S. dollar.
On the flip side, if the data disappoints and shows cracks in the economy, especially in the labor market, it would not be surprising to see the Fed's policy outlook shift in a more dovish direction, an outcome that would put downward pressure on yields and, by extension, the U.S. dollar. Any NFP print below 100,000 is likely to produce this response.
On the other hand, if the bulls manage to propel the exchange rate above the 200-day SMA around 143.00, we could see a rally towards 144.80. Surmounting this obstacle may be difficult, but a successful push above it could establish favorable conditions for an upward move toward the 146.00 handle. Sustained strength might embolden the bulls to aim for 147.20.
However, the greenback was unable to maintain its upward momentum for long. Shortly after setting a new 2023 high in early October, DXY shifted lower, undercut by the sharp downward correction in real and nominal yields following benign inflation readings.
With inflationary forces downshifting, markets began to price in aggressive rate cuts over the next few years in an attempt to front-run the FOMC next easing cycle. The U.S. central bank initially resisted the pressure to pivot, but relented at its December meeting, when it indicated that "talk" of cutting borrowing costs had already begun.
The Fed’s pivot accelerated the pullback in yields, sending the 2-year note below 4.40 %, a significant retracement from the cycle high of 5.25%. Simultaneously, the 10-year note plunged beneath the 4.0% threshold, when weeks earlier it was threatening to breach the psychological 5.0% level. In this context, the U.S. dollar index plummeted, hitting its weakest point since August.
The Fed’s unexpected dovish pivot is a clear signal that officials want to shift policy in time to engineer a soft landing; in other words, they are prioritizing growth over inflation. This bias won’t change overnight, but will likely consolidate further in the near term, so the path of least resistance remains lower for both bond yields and the U.S. dollar, at least for the first couple of months of 2024.
Navigational winds, however, could shift in favor of the greenback by the end of the first quarter, when additional data will become available for a more complete assessment of the macroeconomic picture.
The significant relaxation of financial conditions observed in November and December, which ignited a powerful surge in stocks, is likely to amplify the wealth effect heading into the new year, helping sustain sturdy household consumption—the key driver of GDP. In this context, the prospect of an economic upswing in the medium term should not be completely ruled out.
Any reacceleration in growth should boost employment gains and reinforce labor market tightness, putting upward pressure on wages. In this environment, inflation could settle well above the 2.0% target while staying skewed to the upside, preventing the Federal Reserve from pursuing a forceful easing campaign.
Although there is a heightened sense of optimism regarding the U.S. inflation outlook following encouraging CPI and Core PCE reports in the latter part of 2023, it is premature to declare victory. Any pause in progress or an upward reversal of the underlying trend in consumer prices next year could be cataclysmic for sentiment, prompting a hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations.
If you are bullish, trail your stops, wait your time to recover the market.As the volatility is increasing think also baout less position sizing or position reducing to minimize riskks.
Also read the updates below USDJPY chart, that will help you to understand this weeks events better
บันทึกช่วยจำ
Trend BullishWe hedged yesterday ASIA session our positions at above 16850 short. at this moment we have longs and shorts positons in nasdaq an some ndices in profit,.Based on our trading strategy signals we will decie if we excecute the shorts, or take out our longs(If the trend becomes bearish).
Current sentient for the next days is bearish to unknown, as the market is very nervouse. But we tick to our long time proven strategy.
The US dollar, as measured by the DXY index, started the new year on the front foot, rising for the third consecutive session, supported by a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year note up 7 bp to 3.93%. In this context, the DXY index climbed 0.7% to 102.10 in early afternoon trading in New York, posting its biggest daily advance since October, ahead of high-impact events later in the week.
Key releases, including the ISM manufacturing survey and the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report (NFP), will give an opportunity to assess the economic outlook and ascertain if projections of aggressive interest rate cuts for 2024 hold merit.
If manufacturing activity accelerates in a meaningful way and employment growth surprises to the upside, investors are likely to pare bets on deep interest-rate cuts, foreseeing that the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to slash borrowing costs substantially in a stable economy for fear of reigniting inflation. This scenario would be bullish for the U.S. dollar.
On the flip side, if the data disappoints and shows cracks in the economy, especially in the labor market, it would not be surprising to see the Fed's policy outlook shift in a more dovish direction, an outcome that would put downward pressure on yields and, by extension, the U.S. dollar. Any NFP print below 100,000 is likely to produce this response.
On the other hand, if the bulls manage to propel the exchange rate above the 200-day SMA around 143.00, we could see a rally towards 144.80. Surmounting this obstacle may be difficult, but a successful push above it could establish favorable conditions for an upward move toward the 146.00 handle. Sustained strength might embolden the bulls to aim for 147.20.
However, the greenback was unable to maintain its upward momentum for long. Shortly after setting a new 2023 high in early October, DXY shifted lower, undercut by the sharp downward correction in real and nominal yields following benign inflation readings.
With inflationary forces downshifting, markets began to price in aggressive rate cuts over the next few years in an attempt to front-run the FOMC next easing cycle. The U.S. central bank initially resisted the pressure to pivot, but relented at its December meeting, when it indicated that "talk" of cutting borrowing costs had already begun.
The Fed’s pivot accelerated the pullback in yields, sending the 2-year note below 4.40 %, a significant retracement from the cycle high of 5.25%. Simultaneously, the 10-year note plunged beneath the 4.0% threshold, when weeks earlier it was threatening to breach the psychological 5.0% level. In this context, the U.S. dollar index plummeted, hitting its weakest point since August.
The Fed’s unexpected dovish pivot is a clear signal that officials want to shift policy in time to engineer a soft landing; in other words, they are prioritizing growth over inflation. This bias won’t change overnight, but will likely consolidate further in the near term, so the path of least resistance remains lower for both bond yields and the U.S. dollar, at least for the first couple of months of 2024.
Navigational winds, however, could shift in favor of the greenback by the end of the first quarter, when additional data will become available for a more complete assessment of the macroeconomic picture.
The significant relaxation of financial conditions observed in November and December, which ignited a powerful surge in stocks, is likely to amplify the wealth effect heading into the new year, helping sustain sturdy household consumption—the key driver of GDP. In this context, the prospect of an economic upswing in the medium term should not be completely ruled out.
Any reacceleration in growth should boost employment gains and reinforce labor market tightness, putting upward pressure on wages. In this environment, inflation could settle well above the 2.0% target while staying skewed to the upside, preventing the Federal Reserve from pursuing a forceful easing campaign.
Although there is a heightened sense of optimism regarding the U.S. inflation outlook following encouraging CPI and Core PCE reports in the latter part of 2023, it is premature to declare victory. Any pause in progress or an upward reversal of the underlying trend in consumer prices next year could be cataclysmic for sentiment, prompting a hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations.
If you are bullish, trail your stops, wait your time to recover the market.As the volatility is increasing think also baout less position sizing or position reducing to minimize riskks.
Also read the updates below USDJPY chart, that will help you to understand this weeks events better
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Bad Data for Dollar PMI OURThe market waiting for Friday non farm
correcting continuation
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Trend bullishLongs got hedged short at 16853. We will solve short hedges, and Take profit, and add some more longs, but not yet.We wait for new buy signal.
US data confirms the cooling narrative
The ISM manufacturing data suggests the sector continues to contract while job opening numbers point to a slower pace of hiring. Friday's jobs report will be key this week though, with the composition of jobs growth almost as important as the payrolls number itself in determining the prospect for rate cuts in 2024
Data provides an important test for recent market moves
Financial markets responded aggressively to the Federal Reserve’s dovish signals at the December FOMC meeting when their individual dot plots pointed to three rate cuts in 2024. This gave market participants the confidence to ramp up the pricing of potentially even more aggressive easing coming through, helped additionally by a very soft core PCE deflator print. Markets are now anticipating six 25bp moves, starting as soon as March.
We have been predicting 150bp of interest rate cuts in 2024 for some time, but we remain a little nervous that the market has moved so far so quickly even though the jobs market remains tight and the activity story right now remains pretty solid. March still looks a little early to us for the first rate cut – we favour May – and this week’s data flow will be important in gauging the potential timing of a first rate cut.
Manufacturing continues to languish
Today’s reports aren't especially conclusive though. The US ISM manufacturing index improved more than expected in December to stand at 47.4 versus the 47.1 consensus forecast and up from 46.7 level recorded in November. Nonetheless, this remains a weak report. It is the 14th consecutive sub-50 print – 50 is the breakeven level - indicating the sector has been contracting since the fourth quarter of last year. The details show production rose to 50.3 from 48.5, so there is a very modest increase in output given it is above 50, but new orders softened to 47.1 from 48.3 and the backlog of orders series also remained weak, suggesting production is likely to drop back below 50 again next month. As the chart below shows, it suggests ongoing stagnation is the most likely path ahead for the sector.
Employment rose to 48.1 from 45.8, but this is still below that 50 breakeven level so merely indicates that the pace of job shedding slowed in December. The good news is that prices paid fell back quite sharply to 45.2 from 49.9, suggesting very little inflation threat from the sector, giving the Fed the room to respond flexibly to incoming activity data
The jobs market remains key and further softening looks likely
Separately, the November JOLTS report data that showed the number of job openings fell to 8.79m in November from 8.852m in October. There were quite a lot of revisions, but the main takeaway is that the level is weaker than the consensus expectation of 8.821m and the trend shows businesses are becoming more cautious on hiring in general with the number of job openings at their lowest since early 2021. Admittedly, there are still significant numbers of vacancies, but hiring rates slowed to the lowest level since July 2020 and the quit rate – a measure of people willing to leave their job and used as a gauge to see how confident workers are they can find better-paid work elsewhere – dropped to its weakest reading since 3Q 2020. Consequently, it appears workers are noticing businesses are becoming more reluctant to hire staff.
A measure of US factory activity remained stuck in contraction territory for a 14th month at the end of 2023, restrained by weaker orders. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing gauge edged up 0.7 point to 47.4 last month, helped by a pickup in production, according to data released Wednesday. Readings below 50 indicate contraction, and the figure was near economists’ expectations.
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Daily Global Market UpdateThe Euro-Dollar pair experienced a slight decline in the last session, dropping by 0.2%. The Stochastic RSI indicates that we are currently in an oversold market condition.
Dollar-Yen Pair's Gains
The Dollar-Yen pair saw an increase of 0.7% in the last session. The RSI is currently giving a positive signal, suggesting potential continued upward movement.
Gold's Decline
Gold fell by 0.8% against the dollar in the last trading session. The CCI is currently giving a negative signal, hinting at a potential continued downtrend.
Global Financial Headlines
The US dollar has risen, bolstered by high US Treasury yields and a cautious market sentiment affecting Wall Street. Traders are now awaiting further economic data. Job openings in the US saw a decrease to their lowest level since March 2021, indicating a cooling job market. European markets have also experienced a sharp decline, with various sectors showing mixed performances.
Upcoming Economic Highlights
Key economic events to watch out for include the US ADP Employment Change, Initial Jobless Claims, Germany's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, and Japan's Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI, among others. These data points are crucial for investors and traders to watch as they provide insights into the economic health of these countries.
US ADP Employment Change - 1315 GMT
US Initial Jobless Claims - 1330 GMT
Germany's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices - 1300 hours GMT
Spain's 30y Bond Auction - 0940 GMT
Japan's Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI - 0030 GMT
Japan's Monetary Base - 2350 GMT
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We bought nasdaq 16334 again, but all positions still hedged.Middle East tensions grow
Further tension in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher yesterday. ICE Brent managed to settle a little more than 3.1% higher on the day. Two car bomb explosions at a memorial for Qassem Soleimani (a senior Iranian general who was killed in a US airstrike in Iraq in 2020) left nearly 100 people dead. While it is not clear who was behind the attack, it only adds to the growing tensions in the region. In North Africa, Libya has also been forced to shut its largest oil field, Sharara, after protesters entered the field, which was producing around 270Mbbls/d ahead of the shutting.
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Short hedges still avtiveNQ will go deeper down.I will wait to cover more longs
ADP Number too high.
The market will wait till 5th January
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US100 ENTRIES FOR SHORT,Longs All Trap Zones for 5th Jan.2023
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CLICK ON THE CHART ABOVEบันทึกช่วยจำ
CORRECTION: WE HAVE STILL 2024, but On the title I wrote 2023. Sorryy.Updates are for Jan. 5th 2024บันทึกช่วยจำ
we tickto our strategyIf you are short already ,stay bearish
not good time to buy nq now
SHORT HEDGE FROM16853 still active
non farm payroll very sstrong
waiting now for ISM 10 am est
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment continued to trend up in government, health care, social assistance, and construction, while transportation and warehousing lost jobs. This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics.
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Shorted SELL again16317 and 16378, and will short again 16452- 16520based on Single prints. Waiting for 2p.m, news
Next short level (if posible 16520)
The long term investors now confirming that FED has no pressure to cut rates
with other wors, good news for the economy, softlanging, but less rate cuts exppectations. BUT we are at the first week of 2024
and we have 52 weeks ahead.
Always put stop loss limits, and have good money mange ment
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Short hedge still valid, as Triple tranche tests to solve them between 16330-13630 failed.As the Fridays low was in the weaer area, and no important data released today, FED Mmber comments initiated the short term ralley.
Inflation data are expected during the next days
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i HEDGED EUROUSD short now here the main reasons based on myopinionInflation in Japan's capital keeps slowing, takes pressure off BOJ
Core inflation in Japan's capital slowed for the second straight month in December, data showed on Tuesday, taking some pressure off the central bank to rush into exiting ultra-loose monetary policy. The Tokyo inflation data, closely watched as a leading indicator of nationwide price trends, is among key factors the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will scrutinise at the next policy-setting meeting on Jan. 22-23. Tokyo's core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose 2.1% in December from a year earlier, government data showed, matching a median market forecast.
US dollar pulls back
The trend is still bullish, I see no reason yet to cut or hedge the longs(This is no recoammandation, so please do not copy my trades, as I write them here also for myown documentations!!!!! And always use stops, and sticktoyour own tradding strateies, as neither me nor others here are Moneyy and fundmanagers, who are allowed to give anyy trading advices nor we are in a CFTC authorities list. We just share our trading ideas, whatfor we tae respnossibility only. But not for your trades!!!) Also Fed’s Bowman Backs Eventual Rate Cuts If Inflation Falls Further
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said inflation could fall toward the Fed’s 2% target with interest rates held at current levels, and offered potential backing for lowering borrowing costs if price pressures fade. “Should inflation continue to fall closer to our 2% goal over time, it will eventually become appropriate to begin the process of lowering our policy rate to prevent policy from becoming overly restrictive,” Bowman said in prepared remarks to the South Carolina Bankers Association in Columbia. “We are not yet at that point,” she said, adding that she remains cautious with upside risks to ..
the staements, the current fundamentals and rate cuts expectations that are now on my opinion vanishing+technical side of NQ gives me enough reasons to stay short and keep my short hedges
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NASDAQ US100(Short term) Analysis for 09. Jan.- 12.Jan.2024
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Based on the urrent developement of price I stay short( temporariliy) unless the bullsshow their cards, if they will defend the mid trem trend, or if they lose control. To break it down please watch the streaming above.Thank you.บันทึกช่วยจำ
sold 16703 and 16728bearish hidden signal
mentioned in streaming above
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16649 is day low, if breaking below it can go to 16631,if holds below that level, 16616.16495.16439,16357,etc. but have to break them first
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