US10YR: Drop Below 100 Likely Negative For Stockmarkets Globally
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The Fed is ready to reduce it's balance sheet starting now.
Quote: "The reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet , accumulated during the heart of the 2007-’09 financial crisis, also is expected to have a tightening effect on rates, pushing them higher along with the central bank’s rate-hike efforts. Wall Street is pricing in a nearly 60% chance of a rate increase before the end of 2017, up from around 37% about a month ago, according to CME Group 0.39% data.
To mute the impact, the Fed is expected to take baby steps in the unwind. The current plan calls for the balance sheet to initially shrink by only $10 billion a month. The pace of the rundown would then increase by $10 billion every quarter, up to a maximum of $50 billion a month."
Quote: "The effect of the central bank’s unprecedented asset unwind is unknown, as the Federal Reserve is the first to attempt to wind down a legacy of post-financial crisis monetary policy ."
Source: marketwatch.com/story/treasury-yields-slip-as-traders-brace-for-fed-meeting-2017-09-19?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts
Quote: "The reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet , accumulated during the heart of the 2007-’09 financial crisis, also is expected to have a tightening effect on rates, pushing them higher along with the central bank’s rate-hike efforts. Wall Street is pricing in a nearly 60% chance of a rate increase before the end of 2017, up from around 37% about a month ago, according to CME Group 0.39% data.
To mute the impact, the Fed is expected to take baby steps in the unwind. The current plan calls for the balance sheet to initially shrink by only $10 billion a month. The pace of the rundown would then increase by $10 billion every quarter, up to a maximum of $50 billion a month."
Quote: "The effect of the central bank’s unprecedented asset unwind is unknown, as the Federal Reserve is the first to attempt to wind down a legacy of post-financial crisis monetary policy ."
Source: marketwatch.com/story/treasury-yields-slip-as-traders-brace-for-fed-meeting-2017-09-19?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts
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Fed's Harker sees three rate hikes next year, after one more in 2017investing.com/news/economic-indicators/feds-harker-sees-three-rate-hikes-next-year-after-one-more-in-2017-537294
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Fed divide on inflation intensified at September policy meetinginvesting.com/news/economy-news/fed-split-on-inflation-intensified-at-september-policy-meeting-minutes-540171
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FUNDAMENTAL VIEW: FED IS SUPPORTING MORE UPSIDEMOMENTUM FOR GLOBAL STOCKMARKETS.
Bullard: Fed 'should defend' inflation target or risk losing credibility
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QUOTE:
"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Fed needs to mount a clear defense of its 2 percent inflation target and stop raising rates until the pace of price increases strengthens, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday.
"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Fed needs to mount a clear defense of its 2 percent inflation target and stop raising rates until the pace of price increases strengthens, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday.
The central bank risks losing credibility, and perhaps triggering a recession, if it continues to insist on "normalization" without better evidence that prices are firming, he said in an interview with Reuters.
"If you are going to have an inflation target you should defend it. If you say you are going to hit the inflation target then you should try to hit it and maintain credibility," Bullard said in an interview with Reuters."
investing.com/news/economy-news/bullard-fed-should-defend-inflation-target-risks-losing-credibility-otherwise-540661
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FUNDAMENTAL VIEW: US TAX REFORM Remark: US TAX cuts likel to cut tax revenues as well. US T-Bonds should face more headwinds and pressure long term.
Quote: "If Senate can pass budget resolution, tax cuts have strong chance: Zoellick
Source: marketwatch.com/story/if-senate-can-pass-budget-resolution-tax-cuts-have-good-chance-zoellick-2017-10-14?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts
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GEOPOLITICS, US TAX REFORM: TAX cuts likely to cut tax revenues as well. TAX cuts like annouced likely to add more debts. US Bonds are going to be sold now, obviously. For Q1 2018 rising US Bond yields are a major threat for global stockmarkets.Trump tax cuts gain momentum as Rand Paul goes 'all in
investing.com/news/politics-news/trump-pledges-passage-of-tax-cuts-after-senate-oks-budget-544858
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Republicans, Democrats Far Apart on Deal as Shutdown Clock TicksRepublicans and Democrats in Congress are once again far apart on a government spending bill with just days to go before a partial shutdown. The next deadline is Jan. 19, and after Republican leaders met with President Donald Trump and cabinet officials over the weekend at Camp David there was no indication either side had budged on some of the policy disputes -- most prominently immigration -- that are tied up in the debate over funding. This week will be crucial in terms of reaching bipartisan deals, with the House and Senate needing the following week to vote whatever bill emerges from negotiations. The government has been running on autopilot since the fiscal year began Oct. 1, relying on a series of short-term measures that have kept the government running at last year’s funding levels. The tangle of other issues and the looming deadline makes yet another stopgap bill almost inevitable. A key test will be whether Democrats and Republicans can agree to add other items to the new stopgap, including a two-year agreement to raise budget caps, changes to immigration laws, funding for natural disasters, and health-care law revisions. Unlike the tax cuts enacted by the GOP in December, Republicans will need votes from Democrats, and significant differences remain in each area, particularly immigration.
Shutdown Threat
“If the Democrats want to shut down the government because they can’t get amnesty for illegal immigrants, then they’re going to have to defend those actions to the American people,” Republican Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week” program.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-08/republicans-democrats-far-apart-on-deal-as-shutdown-clock-ticks
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US Bondmarkets by today officially in bear market territory:Bill Gross says bond bear market ‘confirmed’ amid Treasurys selloff
The 10-year Treasury yield and the 5-year yield have pushed above their long-term trendlines
Market guru Bill Gross said Treasurys were entering a bear market after a selloff in government paper took yields past key technical levels on Tuesday.
Gross, a bond fund manager for Janus Henderson and a former investor at Pacific Investment Management Co., said in a tweet that both the 5-year note yield TMUBMUSD05Y, +1.91% and the 10-year note yield TMUBMUSD10Y, +3.06% pushed above the 25 year long-term trendline, which has kept a lid on yields. Back in October, he said a sustained climb above the 2.40% level and a break-out above these key charting levels could mark a long-awaited upturn in Treasury yields. marketwatch.com/story/bill-gross-says-bond-bear-market-confirmed-amid-treasurys-selloff-2018-01-09
marketwatch.com/story/bill-gross-says-bond-bear-market-confirmed-amid-treasurys-selloff-2018-01-09
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Short Term Target Reached: US TBond Yield 2,60%Stockmarktes vs. Bond Markets:
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/asian-shares-step-back-from-2007-peak-oil-at-threeyear-high-1084803
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