Job Openings, Unemployment Rate, and S&P Correlations

1 ก.ย. 2023

Here is a graph showing the correlations between the leading indicators of the economy, Job Openings, Unemployment Rate, and the S&P.

It can be seen from the charts that the Job Openings (.a) historically begin to decline before there is any change in the unemployment rate. A simple explanation for this could be, less jobs, more people unemployed.

Once the unemployment rate begins to creep up (.b); historically this has led to a sell off in the S&P.

1 ก.ย. 2023

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Next Step is to correlate the slope of the declining job openings number with the timing of a rise in the unemployment rate to get an idea of when the market might be expected to begin tumbling