The Ugly Truth of Technical Analysis...

Even though this may be an extremely unpopular opinion on this topic, realizing this simple truth may be what makes or breaks a profitable trader. The truth is this...

Drawing lines on a chart does not predict any price movement, and there are more factors in play than simply price action

It doesn't matter what the gurus on the internet say about some "secret strategy" or a "secret indicator", anyone with common sense should automatically ignore content like that. Firms like JPM , GS , MS , etc. , spend billions upon billions of dollars just to figure out how to trade the market with efficiency, but some random 19 year old on the internet figured out how to beat these mega-firms with a free indicator. Yeah right.

However, I'm not saying that technical analysis doesn't work or that it shouldn't be used; I'm simply saying to reconsider your strategy and use common sense before donating your money to Wall Street banks. Below is an example of technical analysis working perfectly on UNH for the 1D timeframe looking back into April of last year.



This would have been a textbook channel breakout trade, in which the trader takes a short when the bottom trendline is broken (or the candle closes below the trendline). It would have resulted in a maximum of 17% gain on naked short shares if the bottom penny is the exit price (which is virtually impossible). So there you have it... technical analysis works perfectly and I have proven myself wrong.... right? No.. Now let me show you what really happened. Here is the same exact chart, but this time with a piece of key information shown.



As it turns out, there was nothing technical in play at all in this price action, but rather a "fundamental" or a "tangible" aspect was the price driver. An example like this should also show you that not providing sufficient information and taking charts out of context can be done by literally anyone. If you think you can predict the future with some geometric shapes, bars, and non financial, fundamental, or tangible analysis, better than the top Wall Street firms, I say good luck to you.

WITH THAT BEING SAID, this does not mean that trendlines, price areas, value gaps, and other technical indicators are completely invalid, but it does mean that there is more to the story than what is on the chart. Always review news, sentiment, financials, analyst ratings, and other key oscillators to gauge every trade.

Disclaimer: The indicators used on the chart are only for illustrative purposes of a cluttered chart. I am neither saying that they are accurate nor inaccurate.