Everything is Still Aligned For A Crypto Bull Run, But...
ที่อัปเดต:
But...what about global markets? What about literally everything humanity is facing right now? Isn't the stock market going to enter a Great Depression? Charts look too good to be true, until they don't.
It's been a while since I posted an analysis, mostly because I'm busy, but also because absolutely nothing has happened in this market over the last several weeks. As I suggested in my last video update, we could see weeks or months of sideways before long term moving averages start to show a direction.
Today, we finally have a new technical development, in that Bitcoin Dominance is breaking down from the uptrend since February, while being held down aggressively by the 100d MA (green). This comes after repeatedly testing the downtrend as resistance, as well as testing the broken long term uptrend as resistance. From a technical standpoint, this shows strength in the altcoin market. It makes sense to me, since less and less people can maintain a profit in the Bitcoin mining ecosystem, so they look for alternatives. I suggested Dominance could drop yet again after the halving, and it has done so, up until this point. I also suggested last summer that we could easily be at a top in Bitcoin Dominance and a bottom in the ETH/BTC ratio. Since then, I've been correct, but there has been no true parabolic movement yet for larger cap altcoins. Right now, the setup is there for some major movement.
Zoomed in:
ETH/BTC has broken above the long term downtrend, but is forming a similar top to the previous one. ETH loves to make a fake move to the upside before revisiting lower support levels (circled in yellow). The good thing is, even if it dumps, it has the broken downtrend as support instead of resistance.
Zoomed out, you can see that the weekly MACD is above the zero line, and the Ultimate Oscillator is actually in an uptrend. There's certainly room to the upside, if the market chooses to go that direction.
In terms of the overall altcoin market, TOTAL2 is really trying to break the long term downtrend I've drawn on this chart.
Oscillators are fairly neutral, showing it could really go either way, but it's encouraging to see prices still holding the 9w MA (orange). More consolidation is still needed at or near current levels for the 50/100w Moving Averages to start curving up. This is what I talked about in my last video. We've been going sideways for long enough where even a decent-sized drop wouldn't affect these MA's so much, as long as prices hold above. That means alts can test the $75 Billion market valuation and remain bullish. On the daily, the 100 has crossed above the 200 again, but price needs to get back above the 9 (orange) for further upside. Otherwise, a retrace to those lower MA's remains possible. Support is currently held above the 50 (red).
Ethereum/USD is at a pretty big decision point. ETH loves to break out of ascending channels, which it did not too long ago. The breakdown didn't result in a major drop. Instead, it's simply drifted sideways as people FOMO in and out of DeFi tokens. I think there are two options. The broken uptrend gives me a target right now around $290, if it decides to move up. This is a possibility even if Bitcoin remains stable, since dominance seems to be in the process of breaking down. On the downside, it can easily test $172-180. This would be bullish, as long as it bounces back above the 100/200d MA's.
The daily moving averages for ETH are all properly aligned for further upside, as long as it continues to hold above the 50d MA (red), even if it dips briefly below to test $172-180. The upside confirmation level to break is around $255-256.
XLM has lost the 50 day MA for now, but it's still well above the bear market downtrend.
I can see a liquidity move towards 5 cents, if the market can't hold up here. If prices remain stable, I'd really like to see XLM simply move back up a bit and hold $0.071 on the weekly. That would serve as a launchpad for price to jump quickly towards $0.16. XLM is also in an interesting position in that it has a clearly defined horizontal resistance. Since this is a broadening pattern, the downside can be extreme, particularly if it breaks back into the long term downtrend (light blue). In that case, XLM can trade below 2 cents eventually. For the bullish scenario, I'd like to at least see the $0.06 level hold, near the 200d MA.
There are a few cryptocurrencies I follow, including VET, NANO, and ADA, which have actually made new highs for 2020. They haven't broken the overall bearish price range, but they are clearly stronger than some others at the moment. Here's VET, with a long way to correct if the market dumps, but is still looking strong:
NANO, which unfortunately couldn't hold above $1.10, but still looks decent:
ADA:
These coins look very different, when compared with Litecoin, XRP, and even NEO:
Here are LTC and XRP, which actually look quite similar in terms of more recent price action:
NEO looks like it wants to repeat the Head and Shoulders top that sent it tumbling over 60% down.
A Specific Note About XRP
XRP really looks incredibly dead, both in terms of price and in terms of sentiment. Anyone who continues to post bullish analysis for XRP looks like an idiot at this point (myself included). HOWEVER, the weekly Ultimate Oscillator is now in an uptrend. This is an interesting new development. The same occurred right before the altcoin bull run kicked off in the first quarter of 2017. XRP was stagnant for nearly 2 and a half years! Sound familiar? As long as it continues to hold 12 cents on the weekly timeframe, it could be close to an explosive move to the upside.
Zoomed in, you can see that there's nothing bullish about the daily chart, at least in terms of price action. But volume is miserably low. This tells me that most of the people who wanted to get out have already done so, and price is simply waiting for a catalyst. Regardless, there is technical upside towards the top of the long term bearish channel (orange).
For XRP/BTC, the weekly chart also looks like it can simply reverse at any moment. The last time it reversed, the ratio pumped by nearly 20X in a matter of weeks, going 10X alone during the final week of the initial impulse, before correcting. If a similar move happened again, most will miss out on the move, guaranteed. As I hold some XRP, my plan isn't to sell any unless it gets to one of the major supply zones, as much as 5-10X from current levels.
What about Bitcoin?
Bitcoin, unfortunately, looks a bit like it's topping out.
Volume shows weak buyers at these levels, but it keeps testing that purple trendline as support. Sellers are dominant, but not particularly aggressive yet. If BTC can't reclaim the 50 day MA soon, and if it breaks that purple trendline, it can head straight towards the $8.2-8.3K area, or even briefly below towards the 7.7K liquidity zone. If one is accumulating long term in this market, those areas seem to be the ideal buy-in point. If the stock market can't hold it together, I expect Bitcoin will try to test some of those lower levels again. But...if buy volume starts to creep back up, and sellers continue to weaken, I'll become a bit more bullish on Bitcoin in the medium term. Alts still look stronger.
But how do we know if Bitcoin will ultimately outperform stocks?
Well, we don't. Bitcoin could dump to
1K and the world would still be in the same position. However, what we can observe are relative higher lows. Crypto made a higher low this year while the Dow Jones made a new low, over the same timeframe (2 years). If the same happens again - for instance, if the Dow drops to 
13K and Bitcoin bounces as 6.4K - that would indicate that crypto doesn't follow the stock market as closely as some people may believe.
One chart I'm paying attention to is the ratio of Bitcoin to the S&P 500. This tells me about relative performance. It's hard to say where the long term uptrend is, but it's pretty clear that the downtrend exists. It came close to breaking it recently, but unfortunately it failed.
Zoomed in, it appears that there's a descending triangle forming on the daily chart, which shows that Bitcoin could be losing its strength against SPX.
On the other hand, if the stock market just continues to go up, and bottom has already been reached, that would be the perfect storm for crypto. Why? I think the USD would begin to suffer under the major pressure, and lose a fair amount of liquidity. With plenty of "Wealth" to still throw around, the market may decide that crypto is "worth it" as a hedge to established financial systems.
Overall, I think there is significant risk in the market right now. For prices to increase, I almost expect there to at least be a large shakeout first. Every dump attempt continues to be bought, but so far the distributors (sellers) are in control.
That's it from me. Just wanted to post a comprehensive update, since I remain quite busy. I hope this is helpful. It's not meant to be financial advice. It should be used for educational, speculative, and entertainment purposes only.
-Victor Cobra
It's been a while since I posted an analysis, mostly because I'm busy, but also because absolutely nothing has happened in this market over the last several weeks. As I suggested in my last video update, we could see weeks or months of sideways before long term moving averages start to show a direction.
Today, we finally have a new technical development, in that Bitcoin Dominance is breaking down from the uptrend since February, while being held down aggressively by the 100d MA (green). This comes after repeatedly testing the downtrend as resistance, as well as testing the broken long term uptrend as resistance. From a technical standpoint, this shows strength in the altcoin market. It makes sense to me, since less and less people can maintain a profit in the Bitcoin mining ecosystem, so they look for alternatives. I suggested Dominance could drop yet again after the halving, and it has done so, up until this point. I also suggested last summer that we could easily be at a top in Bitcoin Dominance and a bottom in the ETH/BTC ratio. Since then, I've been correct, but there has been no true parabolic movement yet for larger cap altcoins. Right now, the setup is there for some major movement.
Zoomed in:
ETH/BTC has broken above the long term downtrend, but is forming a similar top to the previous one. ETH loves to make a fake move to the upside before revisiting lower support levels (circled in yellow). The good thing is, even if it dumps, it has the broken downtrend as support instead of resistance.
Zoomed out, you can see that the weekly MACD is above the zero line, and the Ultimate Oscillator is actually in an uptrend. There's certainly room to the upside, if the market chooses to go that direction.
In terms of the overall altcoin market, TOTAL2 is really trying to break the long term downtrend I've drawn on this chart.
Oscillators are fairly neutral, showing it could really go either way, but it's encouraging to see prices still holding the 9w MA (orange). More consolidation is still needed at or near current levels for the 50/100w Moving Averages to start curving up. This is what I talked about in my last video. We've been going sideways for long enough where even a decent-sized drop wouldn't affect these MA's so much, as long as prices hold above. That means alts can test the $75 Billion market valuation and remain bullish. On the daily, the 100 has crossed above the 200 again, but price needs to get back above the 9 (orange) for further upside. Otherwise, a retrace to those lower MA's remains possible. Support is currently held above the 50 (red).
Ethereum/USD is at a pretty big decision point. ETH loves to break out of ascending channels, which it did not too long ago. The breakdown didn't result in a major drop. Instead, it's simply drifted sideways as people FOMO in and out of DeFi tokens. I think there are two options. The broken uptrend gives me a target right now around $290, if it decides to move up. This is a possibility even if Bitcoin remains stable, since dominance seems to be in the process of breaking down. On the downside, it can easily test $172-180. This would be bullish, as long as it bounces back above the 100/200d MA's.
The daily moving averages for ETH are all properly aligned for further upside, as long as it continues to hold above the 50d MA (red), even if it dips briefly below to test $172-180. The upside confirmation level to break is around $255-256.
XLM has lost the 50 day MA for now, but it's still well above the bear market downtrend.
There are a few cryptocurrencies I follow, including VET, NANO, and ADA, which have actually made new highs for 2020. They haven't broken the overall bearish price range, but they are clearly stronger than some others at the moment. Here's VET, with a long way to correct if the market dumps, but is still looking strong:
NANO, which unfortunately couldn't hold above $1.10, but still looks decent:
ADA:
These coins look very different, when compared with Litecoin, XRP, and even NEO:
Here are LTC and XRP, which actually look quite similar in terms of more recent price action:
NEO looks like it wants to repeat the Head and Shoulders top that sent it tumbling over 60% down.
A Specific Note About XRP
XRP really looks incredibly dead, both in terms of price and in terms of sentiment. Anyone who continues to post bullish analysis for XRP looks like an idiot at this point (myself included). HOWEVER, the weekly Ultimate Oscillator is now in an uptrend. This is an interesting new development. The same occurred right before the altcoin bull run kicked off in the first quarter of 2017. XRP was stagnant for nearly 2 and a half years! Sound familiar? As long as it continues to hold 12 cents on the weekly timeframe, it could be close to an explosive move to the upside.
Zoomed in, you can see that there's nothing bullish about the daily chart, at least in terms of price action. But volume is miserably low. This tells me that most of the people who wanted to get out have already done so, and price is simply waiting for a catalyst. Regardless, there is technical upside towards the top of the long term bearish channel (orange).
For XRP/BTC, the weekly chart also looks like it can simply reverse at any moment. The last time it reversed, the ratio pumped by nearly 20X in a matter of weeks, going 10X alone during the final week of the initial impulse, before correcting. If a similar move happened again, most will miss out on the move, guaranteed. As I hold some XRP, my plan isn't to sell any unless it gets to one of the major supply zones, as much as 5-10X from current levels.
What about Bitcoin?
Bitcoin, unfortunately, looks a bit like it's topping out.
Volume shows weak buyers at these levels, but it keeps testing that purple trendline as support. Sellers are dominant, but not particularly aggressive yet. If BTC can't reclaim the 50 day MA soon, and if it breaks that purple trendline, it can head straight towards the $8.2-8.3K area, or even briefly below towards the 7.7K liquidity zone. If one is accumulating long term in this market, those areas seem to be the ideal buy-in point. If the stock market can't hold it together, I expect Bitcoin will try to test some of those lower levels again. But...if buy volume starts to creep back up, and sellers continue to weaken, I'll become a bit more bullish on Bitcoin in the medium term. Alts still look stronger.
But how do we know if Bitcoin will ultimately outperform stocks?
Well, we don't. Bitcoin could dump to
1K and the world would still be in the same position. However, what we can observe are relative higher lows. Crypto made a higher low this year while the Dow Jones made a new low, over the same timeframe (2 years). If the same happens again - for instance, if the Dow drops to 13K and Bitcoin bounces as 6.4K - that would indicate that crypto doesn't follow the stock market as closely as some people may believe. One chart I'm paying attention to is the ratio of Bitcoin to the S&P 500. This tells me about relative performance. It's hard to say where the long term uptrend is, but it's pretty clear that the downtrend exists. It came close to breaking it recently, but unfortunately it failed.
Zoomed in, it appears that there's a descending triangle forming on the daily chart, which shows that Bitcoin could be losing its strength against SPX.
On the other hand, if the stock market just continues to go up, and bottom has already been reached, that would be the perfect storm for crypto. Why? I think the USD would begin to suffer under the major pressure, and lose a fair amount of liquidity. With plenty of "Wealth" to still throw around, the market may decide that crypto is "worth it" as a hedge to established financial systems.
Overall, I think there is significant risk in the market right now. For prices to increase, I almost expect there to at least be a large shakeout first. Every dump attempt continues to be bought, but so far the distributors (sellers) are in control.
That's it from me. Just wanted to post a comprehensive update, since I remain quite busy. I hope this is helpful. It's not meant to be financial advice. It should be used for educational, speculative, and entertainment purposes only.
-Victor Cobra
บันทึกช่วยจำ
Well, what do you know? ETH/BTC has touched the first major resistance level I anticipated, if the ratio were to break out here. บันทึกช่วยจำ
Dominance at a major support level here, so if Bitcoin goes on a run, I can see alts underperforming for a time. But if this level breaks to the downside, I expect some even more ridiculous moves to the upside for alts. บันทึกช่วยจำ
TOTAL2 is clearly confirming a breakout of the downtrend here, but it's at a major horizontal resistance level. If it can clear the highs from June 2019, I think we'll be in for quite a ride. 
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