TLT presents a wedge on a rising trend, this is bullish for risk on markets. As inflation remains sticky any report of easing inflation will cause TLT to break through this to the upside. Remember that if 20 year bonds rise, this helps alleviate the yield curve and drop shorter-dated bonds, this reduces overall interest rates. In a healthy market, longer-dated bonds should always provide more yield than monthlies, this is not the case for the last year plus because of the yield curve inversion.
-Late June or July this wedge breaks to the upside
-Rate cuts will follow
-Either the market pumps into elections hard, or we start to go into a recession
-I believe Biden will not allow a recession until 2025 due to elections
-Late June or July this wedge breaks to the upside
-Rate cuts will follow
-Either the market pumps into elections hard, or we start to go into a recession
-I believe Biden will not allow a recession until 2025 due to elections